Sunday, December 12, 2010

A Few Statistics

As an actuary, I like to look at numbers and statistics. Here are a few of interest from my tracking portfolios:

Open Stocks with Initial Dividends > 2.5%

I should have bought GNI!!!

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
1/22/2010 USMO 9.55 19.12 100%
12/31/2009 USMO 9.66 19.12 98%
2/26/2010 USMO 9.88 19.12 94%
1/22/2010 GNI 78.02 150.65 93%
2/26/2010 GNI 87.10 150.65 73%
3/25/2010 USMO 11.44 19.12 67%
6/29/2010 USMO 11.92 19.12 60%
12/31/2009 DLX 14.06 22.12 57%
4/23/2010 USMO 12.55 19.12 52%
5/28/2010 USMO 12.82 19.12 49%
1/22/2010 RGR 10.70 15.94 49%
9/24/2010 PRM 3.51 5.19 48%
3/25/2010 WTW 25.11 36.98 47%
1/22/2010 DLX 15.11 22.12 46%
7/29/2010 USMO 13.34 19.12 43%
2/26/2010 RGR 11.51 15.94 38%
9/2/2010 USMO 13.86 19.12 38%
4/23/2010 WTW 26.91 36.98 37%
5/28/2010 PDLI 4.40 6.04 37%
12/31/2009 VGR 13.09 17.80 36%
1/22/2010 VGR 13.41 17.80 33%
2/26/2010 VGR 13.49 17.80 32%
9/2/2010 VALU 11.46 15.08 32%
5/28/2010 MHP 27.38 35.98 31%
2/26/2010 RAI 24.74 32.22 30%
5/28/2010 RAI 24.83 32.22 30%
1/22/2010 RAI 24.87 32.22 30%
3/25/2010 RGR 12.42 15.94 28%
9/24/2010 USMO 14.96 19.12 28%
2/26/2010 DLX 17.31 22.12 28%
9/2/2010 UNTD 5.31 6.75 27%
9/2/2010 DLX 17.45 22.12 27%
6/29/2010 PDLI 4.77 6.04 27%
9/2/2010 PDLI 4.78 6.04 26%
3/25/2010 RAI 25.52 32.22 26%
1/22/2010 CHKE 15.36 19.38 26%
7/29/2010 VALU 12.17 15.08 24%
10/29/2010 USMO 15.61 19.12 22%
3/25/2010 VGR 14.71 17.80 21%
6/29/2010 CHKE 16.03 19.38 21%
1/22/2010 ELNK 7.59 9.13 20%
2/26/2010 CHKE 16.14 19.38 20%
9/24/2010 DLX 18.62 22.12 19%
10/29/2010 PETS 15.34 18.22 19%
1/22/2010 PDLI 5.10 6.04 18%
9/24/2010 UNTD 5.70 6.75 18%
5/28/2010 LO 69.50 82.15 18%
12/31/2009 ELNK 7.73 9.13 18%
12/31/2009 CHKE 16.46 19.38 18%
9/24/2010 PDLI 5.14 6.04 18%
2/26/2010 LO 70.03 82.15 17%
6/29/2010 DLX 18.89 22.12 17%
6/29/2010 ELNK 7.80 9.13 17%
3/25/2010 DLX 18.94 22.12 17%
6/29/2010 UNTD 5.78 6.75 17%
6/29/2010 LO 70.52 82.15 16%
2/26/2010 ACN 39.23 45.66 16%
10/29/2010 PDLI 5.22 6.04 16%
11/26/2010 USMO 16.70 19.12 14%
3/25/2010 ELNK 7.99 9.13 14%
12/31/2009 PDLI 5.33 6.04 13%
4/23/2010 VGR 15.74 17.80 13%
3/25/2010 CHKE 17.14 19.38 13%
3/25/2010 PDLI 5.35 6.04 13%
4/23/2010 PDLI 5.36 6.04 13%
5/28/2010 ELNK 8.12 9.13 12%
3/25/2010 LO 73.23 82.15 12%
10/29/2010 HRB 11.64 13.04 12%
7/29/2010 LO 73.69 82.15 11%
9/2/2010 CHKE 17.40 19.38 11%
10/29/2010 UNTD 6.09 6.75 11%
2/26/2010 PDLI 5.45 6.04 11%
4/23/2010 ELNK 8.25 9.13 11%
1/22/2010 LO 74.42 82.15 10%
7/29/2010 UNTD 6.22 6.75 9%
12/31/2009 LO 75.91 82.15 8%
9/2/2010 ELNK 8.46 9.13 8%
4/23/2010 LO 76.29 82.15 8%
10/29/2010 CHKE 18.14 19.38 7%
7/29/2010 GRMN 28.55 30.23 6%
5/28/2010 DLX 20.95 22.12 6%
11/26/2010 MHP 34.31 35.98 5%
1/22/2010 UNTD 6.44 6.75 5%
11/26/2010 PDLI 5.77 6.04 5%
9/2/2010 LO 78.82 82.15 4%
11/26/2010 HRB 12.62 13.04 3%
9/24/2010 ELNK 8.90 9.13 3%
9/24/2010 LO 80.30 82.15 2%
5/28/2010 UNTD 6.60 6.75 2%
9/24/2010 HRB 12.92 13.04 1%
11/26/2010 ELNK 9.05 9.13 1%
4/23/2010 CHKE 19.24 19.38 1%
9/2/2010 RTN 45.29 45.58 1%
4/23/2010 DLX 22.00 22.12 1%
9/24/2010 RTN 45.49 45.58 0%
12/31/2009 UNTD 6.76 6.75 0%
11/26/2010 LO 82.39 82.15 0%
11/26/2010 DLX 22.19 22.12 0%
10/29/2010 RTN 46.08 45.58 -1%
7/29/2010 RTN 46.29 45.58 -2%
5/28/2010 CHKE 19.70 19.38 -2%
11/26/2010 RTN 46.48 45.58 -2%
10/29/2010 LO 84.19 82.15 -2%
6/29/2010 VALU 16.17 15.08 -7%
3/25/2010 UNTD 7.30 6.75 -8%
10/29/2010 CMTL 30.82 28.03 -9%
12/31/2009 RTN 50.37 45.58 -10%
7/29/2010 HRB 15.08 13.04 -14%
5/28/2010 VALU 17.54 15.08 -14%
4/23/2010 UNTD 8.11 6.75 -17%
2/26/2010 HRB 16.56 13.04 -21%
3/25/2010 HRB 16.79 13.04 -22%
4/23/2010 HRB 17.47 13.04 -25%
4/23/2010 VALU 20.42 15.08 -26%

Average Gain by Market Cap Decile

This chart shows the average gain by decile of market cap (so far you would have clearly done better sticking to stocks $1b or greater):


Values
Row Labels Average of Percent Change Max of Mkt Cap
0 11.8% 225,009
1 5.0% 11,370
2 15.0% 3,280
3 9.2% 1,685
4 9.0% 989
5 5.6% 731
6 4.8% 511
7 8.4% 379
8 3.0% 272
9 2.8% 190
10 8.9% 125
Grand Total 7.3% 225,009

Seasonality

Does it make a difference what month you buy your stocks? This one is kind of odd, as you hold for a year, you would not think it matters. But so far, the list has historically had more lemons in July and August, while June and February have been the good months to start.


Values
Row Labels Average of Percent Change Average of Mkt Cap
1 9.6% 1,971
2 15.4% 3,414
3 11.1% 2,127
4 9.1% 2,154
5 9.6% 2,858
6 21.5% 2,905
7 -2.8% 1,838
8 -1.6% 2,486
9 5.3% 2,916
10 14.9% 2,855
11 -0.1% 2,804
12 7.1% 1,960
Grand Total 7.3% 2,513

By Letter

Here are the gains by 1st letter of stock symbol. Of course this is starting to get silly!


Values

Row Labels Average of Percent Change Average of Mkt Cap Count of Stock
A 0.3% 3,204 191
B 5.5% 1,416 106
C 5.4% 1,033 283
D 36.6% 2,283 122
E 10.9% 1,077 160
F 17.6% 4,262 143
G 11.9% 1,487 100
H 3.1% 1,874 142
I 4.4% 1,520 121
J -6.4% 818 59
K 0.1% 1,868 126
L -6.4% 4,564 78
M 14.8% 8,140 164
N 5.5% 3,579 87
o -7.1% 767 46
P 4.3% 3,548 250
Q 73.7% 304 28
R -9.7% 6,177 65
S 3.7% 1,094 148
T 15.9% 2,818 162
U 6.7% 712 129
V 6.0% 1,401 142
W -5.7% 1,768 50
X -48.0% 336 10
Z -4.0% 179 6
Grand Total 7.3% 2,513 2918

"Q" has been a big winner (helped by QCOR) and X a laggard (hurt by XOMA?).

Number of Letters

Last one I promise. The number of letters in the stock symbol (note 4 is usually Nasdaq and 3 or less is usually NYSE).

Row Labels Average of Percent Change Average of Mkt Cap Count of Stock
2 12.9% 4,741 106
3 12.2% 4,181 1125
4 5.4% 1,225 1628
5 13.6% 8,705 11
7 -52.5% 249 36
8 -63.5% 2,411 12
Grand Total 7.3% 2,513 2918

Note 7 or 8 usually would have a .pk or .ob at the end. Looks like you should runaway and hide from them. Two and three letters do the best, which is consistent with our finding of larger cap stocks out-performing.

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