Sunday, March 21, 2010

Top 30 Ranking

Now that I wrote my Cruncher worksheet, I can enter any group of stock symbols (up to 500) and let my computer whirl for a while and it calculates the earnings yield and return on capital for each of the stocks and then ranks each stock for each statistic within that group (not necessarily the same as against entire stock universe) and then does the JG adding and total ranking.

I ran the top 30 over 50m through the worksheet last night. I think today I will run the top 50 through the workbook as well. My purpose is to try and compare how the statistics change over time to give some feeling as to how the stocks are valued over time. The problem is that the ROIC is such a volatile statistic (as working capital goes to zero it goes to infinity) that it is difficult to use in averages and such, So I think the medians are more telling. I think in a top 50 ranking they will be even more telling, which is why I am going to start that today. I do have one other idea on how to compare, which is to use JGs own method, that is ranking within the ranking. Without further adieu, here is what I have so far.

Top 30 ranking:

Stock EY ROC EY Rank ROC Rank Sum
SNTA 62% 2025% 2 3 5
PDLI 18% 173754% 6 1 7
SMED 29% 338% 7 6 13
EME 22% 304% 5 11 16
UEPS 14% 1257% 1 16 17
SOLR 19% 590% 9 12 21
SNTS 13% 3902% 22 2 24
TSRA 19% 277% 20 5 25
USMO 35% 155% 3 23 26
IMMU 14% 731% 12 15 27
ONTY 14% 772% 16 13 29
PPD 21% 187% 15 14 29
KHD 36% 140% 13 17 30
PVSW 15% 526% 10 20 30
WTW 12% 1114% 4 29 33
JCOM 12% 777% 30 4 34
PRSC 16% 275% 27 7 34
FRX 21% 176% 26 9 35
CHKE 13% 725% 25 10 35
IDCC 19% 180% 11 24 35
XOMA 27% 119% 8 27 35
UNTD 15% 233% 29 8 37
LO 13% 650% 18 19 37
CBPO 20% 120% 14 26 40
PRGX 14% 196% 23 21 44
CEU 14% 207% 19 25 44
VCLK 12% 571% 28 18 46
FLR 18% 134% 24 22 46
VSNT 10% 513% 17 30 47
DLX 13% 187% 21 28 49

Comparison with various points in time:

3/19/10 Average 19% 6371%

Median 16% 321%
2/19/10 Average 25% 5599%

Median 19% 329%
11/06/09 Average 46% 770%

Median 16% 229%
07/31/09 Average 37% 588%

Median 20% 212%
04/16/09 Average 45% 740%

Median 27% 228%

Here is the rankings of each 30 stocks for the 5 time periods:

Stock Date EY ROC EY Rank ROC Rank Sum
SNTA 3/19/2010 62% 2025% 10 11 21
SNTA 11/7/2009 83% 1354% 8 16 24
SNTA 2/19/2010 56% 1354% 11 17 28
snta 1/7/2010 52% 1354% 13 18 31
qlti 4/16/2009 177% 988% 5 26 31
vsnt 4/16/2009 31% 1581% 29 12 41
ptie 4/16/2009 50% 825% 14 31 45
scmp 4/16/2009 27% 1512% 39 13 52
msb 4/16/2009 27% 2890% 44 10 54
ptie 7/31/2009 34% 825% 25 32 57
QCOR 11/7/2009 24% 10939% 54 4 58
qcor 4/16/2009 25% 7841% 51 7 58
pdli 1/7/2010 22% 145094% 65 2 67
vsnt 7/31/2009 25% 1287% 50 19 69
elnk 1/7/2010 44% 658% 15 54 69
PDLI 2/19/2010 21% 145094% 68 3 71
SMED 2/19/2010 20% 10939% 74 5 79
cytk 1/7/2010 29% 707% 35 46 81
khd 7/31/2009 318% 311% 2 79 81
scmp 7/31/2009 20% 1512% 72 14 86
SOLR 11/7/2009 23% 831% 56 30 86
khd 4/16/2009 176% 311% 6 80 86
PDLI 3/19/2010 18% 173754% 94 1 95
qcor 1/7/2010 18% 10939% 95 6 101
divx 4/16/2009 32% 323% 27 74 101
KHD 11/7/2009 794% 220% 1 101 102
prgx 4/16/2009 35% 303% 22 82 104
SMED 3/19/2010 29% 338% 34 72 106
EME 2/19/2010 27% 343% 42 69 111
qcor 7/31/2009 17% 7841% 108 8 116
solr 4/16/2009 20% 761% 81 37 118
EME 11/7/2009 26% 343% 48 70 118
prgx 7/31/2009 27% 303% 41 83 124
eme 1/7/2010 23% 343% 57 71 128
UEPS 2/19/2010 22% 338% 61 73 134
vclk 1/7/2010 17% 967% 109 27 136
endp 1/7/2010 18% 821% 103 33 136
hckt 4/16/2009 27% 244% 43 93 136
SOLR 2/19/2010 18% 821% 106 34 140
ghm 4/16/2009 28% 207% 36 105 141
mtxx 7/31/2009 187% 150% 3 138 141
EME 3/19/2010 22% 304% 62 81 143
ctcm 4/16/2009 20% 366% 80 67 147
ONTY 11/7/2009 15% 1371% 133 15 148
solr 7/31/2009 17% 761% 110 38 148
SOLR 3/19/2010 19% 590% 91 57 148
eme 7/31/2009 25% 225% 49 100 149
SNTS 2/19/2010 16% 914% 122 28 150
USMO 11/7/2009 40% 153% 17 134 151
usmo 1/7/2010 41% 153% 16 135 151
PRGX 11/7/2009 20% 321% 76 76 152
VSNT 11/7/2009 15% 1031% 128 25 153
USMO 2/19/2010 15% 1257% 132 22 154
ntri 4/16/2009 23% 237% 58 96 154
kfy 4/16/2009 25% 219% 52 102 154
TSRA 2/19/2010 39% 153% 18 136 154
USMO 3/19/2010 35% 155% 24 131 155
airv 4/16/2009 18% 514% 97 62 159
tra 4/16/2009 29% 156% 32 130 162
KHD 3/19/2010 36% 140% 21 142 163
UEPS 3/19/2010 14% 1257% 142 23 165
solr 1/7/2010 16% 689% 118 48 166
ONTY 2/19/2010 35% 140% 23 143 166
usmo 4/16/2009 37% 135% 20 146 166
SNTS 3/19/2010 13% 3902% 159 9 168
cray 4/16/2009 178% 103% 4 164 168
PPD 2/19/2010 20% 277% 83 86 169
KHD 2/19/2010 17% 590% 112 58 170
jcom 1/7/2010 15% 672% 125 51 176
ppd 4/16/2009 21% 192% 66 110 176
deck 4/16/2009 37% 114% 19 157 176
vsnt 1/7/2010 14% 914% 148 29 177
PVSW 2/19/2010 15% 731% 136 41 177
PRSC 2/19/2010 18% 321% 100 77 177
TSRA 3/19/2010 19% 277% 90 87 177
WTW 2/19/2010 159% 99% 7 170 177
eme 4/16/2009 27% 144% 38 141 179
tsra 1/7/2010 18% 279% 96 84 180
usmo 7/31/2009 29% 135% 33 147 180
IMMU 2/19/2010 22% 176% 59 122 181
prgx 1/7/2010 18% 321% 105 78 183
JCOM 2/19/2010 31% 119% 30 154 184
iphs 4/16/2009 64% 81% 9 176 185
PPD 3/19/2010 21% 187% 69 117 186
IMMU 3/19/2010 14% 731% 146 42 188
GIGM 11/7/2009 19% 237% 92 97 189
iphs 7/31/2009 55% 81% 12 177 189
PPD 11/7/2009 20% 188% 77 113 190
gni 7/31/2009 15% 497% 126 65 191
ONTY 3/19/2010 14% 772% 156 36 192
ghm 7/31/2009 26% 136% 47 145 192
AGX 11/7/2009 12% 1259% 172 21 193
IMMU 11/7/2009 14% 738% 155 39 194
FRX 3/19/2010 21% 176% 71 123 194
ueps 1/7/2010 11% 1275% 175 20 195
ctcm 7/31/2009 15% 366% 127 68 195
tsra 4/16/2009 19% 194% 86 109 195
XOMA 3/19/2010 27% 119% 40 155 195
int 4/16/2009 21% 171% 70 126 196
rgr 1/7/2010 30% 103% 31 165 196
WTW 3/19/2010 12% 1114% 173 24 197
khd 1/7/2010 24% 140% 53 144 197
divx 7/31/2009 15% 323% 123 75 198
FRX 2/19/2010 20% 188% 84 114 198
PVSW 3/19/2010 15% 526% 139 60 199
TSRA 11/7/2009 16% 279% 115 85 200
ppd 1/7/2010 19% 188% 85 115 200
fix 4/16/2009 32% 95% 28 173 201
PRSC 3/19/2010 16% 275% 113 89 202
RGR 11/7/2009 28% 103% 37 166 203
IDCC 2/19/2010 13% 725% 161 43 204
CHKE 2/19/2010 14% 672% 152 52 204
GHM 11/7/2009 18% 209% 101 103 204
ahci 4/16/2009 26% 112% 46 158 204
egy 7/31/2009 34% 74% 26 178 204
JCOM 3/19/2010 12% 777% 170 35 205
amed 11/7/2009 16% 246% 114 92 206
ppd 7/31/2009 18% 198% 99 107 206
lo 7/31/2009 13% 700% 160 47 207
JCOM 11/7/2009 14% 672% 154 53 207
CHKE 3/19/2010 13% 725% 164 44 208
untd 1/7/2010 16% 255% 119 90 209
IDCC 3/19/2010 19% 180% 88 121 209
immu 1/7/2010 12% 738% 171 40 211
hckt 7/31/2009 16% 244% 117 94 211
UNTD 2/19/2010 14% 526% 151 61 212
XOMA 2/19/2010 26% 103% 45 167 212
chke 1/7/2010 13% 725% 168 45 213
fwlt 7/31/2009 20% 146% 73 140 213
LO 11/7/2009 13% 674% 167 49 216
PVSW 11/7/2009 14% 464% 150 66 216
FIX 11/7/2009 22% 117% 60 156 216
PRGX 2/19/2010 13% 650% 163 55 218
lo 1/7/2010 13% 674% 169 50 219
PRIM 11/7/2009 20% 150% 82 137 219
LO 3/19/2010 13% 650% 166 56 222
CBPO 2/19/2010 19% 160% 93 129 222
br 7/31/2009 15% 277% 135 88 223
tra 7/31/2009 23% 100% 55 169 224
cf 1/7/2010 22% 109% 63 163 226
LO 2/19/2010 20% 120% 75 152 227
exbd 4/16/2009 21% 109% 67 161 228
UNTD 3/19/2010 15% 233% 130 99 229
int 7/31/2009 18% 171% 102 127 229
CBPO 3/19/2010 20% 120% 78 153 231
VM 11/7/2009 16% 189% 120 112 232
VCLK 3/19/2010 12% 571% 174 59 233
dyai.pk 1/7/2010 14% 251% 144 91 235
VSNT 2/19/2010 15% 242% 140 95 235
fix 7/31/2009 22% 95% 64 174 238
frx 1/7/2010 18% 155% 107 132 239
VSNT 3/19/2010 10% 513% 177 63 240
FLR 2/19/2010 10% 513% 178 64 242
CEU 2/19/2010 16% 171% 121 124 245
CEU 3/19/2010 14% 207% 143 104 247
VCLK 2/19/2010 19% 111% 89 159 248
PRGX 3/19/2010 14% 196% 141 108 249
FLR 3/19/2010 18% 134% 104 148 252
DLX 11/7/2009 15% 185% 134 119 253
dlx 7/31/2009 15% 187% 138 116 254
cbi 7/31/2009 20% 89% 79 175 254
gigm 7/31/2009 14% 237% 157 98 255
cski 7/31/2009 19% 100% 87 168 255
FLR 11/7/2009 17% 134% 111 149 260
exbd 7/31/2009 18% 109% 98 162 260
RTN 11/7/2009 15% 147% 124 139 263
dlx 1/7/2010 14% 185% 145 120 265
CEU 11/7/2009 13% 191% 165 111 276
jtx 7/31/2009 14% 169% 149 128 277
DLX 3/19/2010 13% 187% 162 118 280
JTX 11/7/2009 14% 153% 147 133 280
DLX 2/19/2010 15% 122% 131 150 281
she 1/7/2010 10% 199% 176 106 282
jtx 1/7/2010 14% 171% 158 125 283
CBI 11/7/2009 16% 99% 116 171 287
idcc 1/7/2010 15% 122% 137 151 288
CBST 11/7/2009 15% 110% 129 160 289
cbi 1/7/2010 14% 99% 153 172 325

Then here is the average ranking of each of the 5 time periods:
Row Labels Average of Sum
4/16/2009 136
2/19/2010 179
1/7/2010 186
7/31/2009 188
3/19/2010 190
11/7/2009 193
Grand Total 179

So while this doesn't give us absolute values, it does show things on a relative basis. 4/16 was clearly when things were cheapest. Interestingly 11/7/09 was the least cheap.

1 comment:

Free Speech said...

Marsh,

Instead of averaging ROIC the way you implied you should probably average the invested capital (and the returns) over a period of time and then calculate the ratio. That makes more sense, IMHO.

Free Speech