Sunday, March 28, 2010

March 2009 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

The March 2009 Monthly tracking portfolio came to full vintage this weekend. Here are the 50 stocks in descending order:

Data
Stock Start Price Final Price Pct Change
BARE 4.36 18.50 324.3%
CTCM 4.66 16.37 251.3%
MSB 7.20 23.25 222.9%
QLTI 1.75 5.26 200.6%
VPHM 4.84 14.11 191.5%
HLF 15.44 44.62 189.0%
HPY 6.61 17.68 167.5%
DHX 2.78 7.21 159.4%
deck 53.24 137.73 158.7%
IPHS 10.58 27.14 156.5%
GTLS 8.10 20.55 153.7%
trlg 12.12 29.62 144.4%
COH 17.35 40.31 132.3%
PRO 4.29 9.71 126.3%
SWIR 3.87 8.40 117.1%
KHD 6.94 14.95 115.4%
DLX 9.42 19.72 109.3%
MD 29.41 57.45 95.3%
MWW 8.67 16.91 95.0%
KFY 9.26 17.87 93.0%
TRA 23.82 45.96 92.9%
LOOP 6.11 11.45 87.4%
EXBD 14.56 26.95 85.1%
AYI 23.20 41.56 79.1%
PACR 3.33 5.93 78.1%
QCOR 4.70 7.85 67.0%
DIVX 4.56 7.47 63.8%
HSII 17.13 27.70 61.7%
MLHR 11.35 18.29 61.1%
KBR 14.56 22.09 51.7%
DELL 9.95 14.99 50.7%
FWLT 18.06 26.91 49.0%
PTIE 4.33 6.40 47.8%
FRX 21.75 31.08 42.9%
EME 17.76 25.10 41.3%
DBTK 6.52 8.84 35.6%
ENDP 17.34 23.39 34.9%
ELNK 6.39 8.36 30.8%
PPD 28.98 37.61 29.8%
CF 72.95 93.17 27.7%
VCLK 8.08 9.87 22.2%
NTRI 14.02 17.10 22.0%
CSKI 13.27 15.33 15.5%
FIX 10.76 12.36 14.9%
SRDX 18.89 21.19 12.2%
QXM 2.21 2.25 1.8%
EGY 5.39 4.65 -13.7%
SOLR 6.64 5.37 -19.1%
WFR 18.38 14.68 -20.1%
MTXX 16.34 5.07 -69.0%
Grand Total 662.22 1,146.33 85.8%

The 85.8% was terrific compared to about 48% for the Russell 3000. Not sure if anyone cares, but here are the 50 stocks for the March 2010 portfolio (it started Friday morning due to a glitch):

Stock Start Price Final Price Pct Change
SOLR 5.11 5.37 5.1%
XOMA 0.57 0.60 5.1%
CF 90.03 93.17 3.5%
SNTS 4.88 4.97 1.8%
HRB 17.36 17.68 1.8%
CNU 3.91 3.98 1.8%
SHE 8.07 8.20 1.6%
CBPO 11.35 11.50 1.3%
GME 21.78 22.00 1.0%
deck 136.46 137.73 0.9%
SMED 6.90 6.96 0.9%
SAI 19.10 19.26 0.8%
EPAX 11.02 11.09 0.6%
VGR 15.34 15.42 0.5%
WTW 25.60 25.72 0.5%
DLX 19.63 19.72 0.5%
CBI 23.26 23.35 0.4%
PPD 37.50 37.61 0.3%
RAI 53.57 53.72 0.3%
PRGX 5.99 6.00 0.2%
USMO 12.78 12.80 0.2%
CSKI 15.31 15.33 0.1%
UEPS 18.21 18.23 0.1%
FLR 46.22 46.26 0.1%
RTN 57.26 57.29 0.1%
ENDP 23.38 23.39 0.0%
ARO 28.59 28.60 0.0%
QKLS 5.90 5.90 0.0%
CEU 5.38 5.38 0.0%
PRSC 15.71 15.65 -0.4%
FRX 31.22 31.08 -0.4%
LO 76.37 76.00 -0.5%
CHKE 18.16 18.06 -0.6%
PDLI 6.41 6.37 -0.6%
SNTA 4.56 4.53 -0.7%
RGR 12.64 12.54 -0.8%
IDCC 27.96 27.73 -0.8%
JCOM 23.32 23.09 -1.0%
ELNK 8.45 8.36 -1.1%
QDEL 13.90 13.73 -1.2%
FWLT 27.25 26.91 -1.2%
VCLK 10.00 9.87 -1.3%
IMMU 3.46 3.41 -1.4%
EME 25.47 25.10 -1.5%
UIS 36.22 35.69 -1.5%
UNTD 7.65 7.53 -1.6%
TSRA 20.68 20.30 -1.8%
APOL 62.43 61.28 -1.8%
SPMD 40.31 39.36 -2.4%
amed 57.33 55.29 -3.6%
Grand Total 1,259.96 1,259.11 0.1%

Now I know I have a multitude of mechanical portfolios running a muck:

  1. Mechanical top 30 - new stocks to top 30 in past 52 weeks
  2. Mechanical top 50 - new stocks to top 50 in past 52 weeks
  3. My mechanical portfolio - this is my buying stocks new to mechanical portfolios for my actual portfolio, hard to replicate exactly for me.
  4. A mechanical version of my Monthly tracking portfolios - if the stock is new to the monthly tracking portfolios in past 12 months, it is added.
All the mechanical approaches have outperformed. Since we're talking the tracking portfolios, this back test goes back to January 2006, though it didn't become "mature" until January 2007. If you used a mechanical approach with my tracking portfolios (and it is a bit different as I assume dollars from a year ago roll forward, while my portfolios #1 and #2 above will put more $ to work if more stocks are available) here would be the following standings with an initial $100,000 investment:

Russell 3000: $98,924
Standard MFI: $106,268
Mechanical MFI Tracking: $116,433

As a benchmark my real life MFI portfolio, which had its initial funding spread out over 18 months, which was worse than getting it all in first 12 months would be
My Portfolio: $102,987

Not earth-shattering differences but there you have it.

So you may ask, what are the new and exciting stocks being added in March 2010?
QKLS, QDEL, SNTS and PRSC.

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