Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Window of Opportunity?

There have been very few stocks new for my mechanical portfolio of late, so I remain 18% in cash (though it doesn't seem to be dragging down my performance). I did notice this morning, a new stock: FLR. I almost bought them, but then held off as my intent is only to do the buys based upon new stocks on the weekends, not mid-week (a technical difference I grant).

But FLR may zip off the list in the next few days. I suspect they were marginal (top 30 list that is). They were a hair under $48 this morning and they closed up 80 cents today. Then for some reason, after hours I see they're up another dollar. Very short window of opportunity.

My mechanical portfolios continue to smoke, beating the index by 26% overall and by 42% for open stocks. That is an absolute crush. My portfolio had a strong day, led by twin towers WILC and CKSW, both up around 200% for me and exhibits A & B on why one should not sell stocks too early.

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
FWLT 10/5/08 31.91 30.89 - 110.34 1.80 -3.2% -2.5% -0.7%
MOS 10/5/08 40.88 48.24 0.20 110.34 1.80 18.5% -2.5% 21.0%
WRLS 10/5/08 1.82 3.27 - 110.34 1.80 79.7% -2.5% 82.2%
TSCM 10/5/08 5.09 2.95 0.10 110.34 1.80 -40.1% -2.5% -37.6%
CTCM 10/10/08 9.02 16.53 - 88.50 1.80 83.3% 21.6% 61.7%
DAR 10/10/08 7.55 7.01 - 88.50 1.80 -7.2% 21.6% -28.7%
NOV 10/10/08 23.42 43.94 - 88.50 1.80 87.6% 21.6% 66.0%
PRGX 10/10/08 4.69 5.94 - 88.50 1.80 26.7% 21.6% 5.1%
PCP 10/10/08 54.15 100.63 0.12 88.50 1.80 86.1% 21.6% 64.5%
ALDN 10/10/08 9.64 11.49 - 88.50 1.80 19.2% 21.6% -2.4%
GPX 10/17/08 5.03 7.62 - 93.21 1.80 51.5% 15.4% 36.1%
BKE 11/1/08 26.34 35.70 0.20 96.83 1.80 36.3% 11.1% 25.2%
CYNO 11/1/08 8.76 11.97 - 96.83 1.80 36.6% 11.1% 25.5%
DHX 11/1/08 4.06 6.40 - 96.83 1.80 57.6% 11.1% 46.5%
GES 11/1/08 21.77 36.18 0.10 96.83 1.80 66.7% 11.1% 55.5%
HWAY 11/1/08 10.10 15.13 - 96.83 1.80 49.8% 11.1% 38.7%
WBC 11/1/08 18.37 22.63 0.07 96.83 1.80 23.6% 11.1% 12.5%
GTLS 11/7/08 11.62 21.70 - 93.86 1.80 86.7% 14.6% 72.1%
CDII 11/7/08 2.77 1.56 - 93.86 1.80 -43.7% 14.6% -58.3%
IPHS 11/7/08 19.97 19.80 0.17 93.86 1.80 0.0% 14.6% -14.6%
MSPD 11/7/08 1.31 3.37 - 93.86 1.80 157.3% 14.6% 142.6%
QLGC 11/7/08 11.49 17.83 - 93.86 1.80 55.2% 14.6% 40.5%
SCHN 11/7/08 27.07 52.55 - 93.86 1.80 94.1% 14.6% 79.5%
SVR 11/7/08 8.92 16.76 - 93.86 1.80 87.9% 14.6% 73.3%
TDC 11/7/08 14.48 27.61 - 93.86 1.80 90.7% 14.6% 76.0%
EBAY 11/7/08 14.19 24.35 - 96.83 1.80 71.6% 11.1% 60.5%
TKTM 11/15/08 5.87 12.46 - 86.62 1.80 112.3% 24.2% 88.0%
ERES 11/15/08 4.65 7.32 - 86.62 1.80 57.4% 24.2% 33.2%
FEED 11/15/08 1.76 5.31 - 86.62 1.80 201.7% 24.2% 177.5%
HCKT 11/15/08 2.57 2.93 - 86.62 1.80 14.0% 24.2% -10.2%
FLR 11/15/08 35.73 48.78 0.13 86.62 1.80 36.9% 24.2% 12.7%
GTI 11/15/08 4.79 14.07 - 86.62 1.80 193.7% 24.2% 169.5%
INTX 11/15/08 4.10 5.97 - 86.62 1.80 45.6% 24.2% 21.4%
MSO 11/15/08 3.91 5.82 - 86.62 1.80 48.8% 24.2% 24.6%
JCG 11/15/08 11.22 35.35 - 86.62 1.80 215.1% 24.2% 190.8%
MDR 11/15/08 7.80 25.85 - 86.62 1.80 231.4% 24.2% 207.2%
ABAT 11/22/08 1.34 4.03 - 79.52 1.80 200.7% 35.3% 165.4%
ADSK 11/22/08 14.37 23.86 - 79.52 1.80 66.0% 35.3% 30.7%
GIGM 11/22/08 3.79 4.79 - 79.52 1.80 26.4% 35.3% -8.9%
OPTV 11/22/08 0.94 1.58 - 79.52 1.80 68.1% 35.3% 32.8%
PRO 11/22/08 4.14 8.81 - 79.52 1.80 112.8% 35.3% 77.5%
WTSLA 11/22/08 2.20 3.53 - 79.52 1.80 60.5% 35.3% 25.1%
AIRT 11/29/08 6.08 10.35 - 90.09 1.80 70.2% 19.4% 50.8%
BSQR 11/29/08 2.48 2.46 - 90.09 1.80 -0.8% 19.4% -20.2%
CKSW 11/29/08 2.20 6.88 - 90.09 1.80 212.7% 19.4% 193.3%
IILG 11/29/08 5.30 13.03 - 90.09 1.80 145.8% 19.4% 126.4%
PBSO.PK 11/29/08 0.39 0.71 - 90.09 1.80 82.1% 19.4% 62.6%
DIVX 12/8/08 4.37 5.28 - 87.93 1.80 20.8% 22.4% -1.5%
GSIT 12/8/08 2.94 4.12 - 87.93 1.80 40.1% 22.4% 17.8%
HGRD 12/8/08 1.35 4.97 - 87.93 1.80 268.1% 22.4% 245.8%
ISIL 12/8/08 7.92 14.11 0.12 87.93 1.80 79.7% 22.4% 57.3%
MAXY 12/8/08 5.80 6.81 - 87.93 1.80 17.4% 22.4% -5.0%
PVSW 12/8/08 3.80 5.50 - 87.93 1.80 44.7% 22.4% 22.4%
DDMX 12/13/08 11.13 18.02 - 88.99 1.80 61.9% 20.9% 41.0%
PSOF 12/13/08 2.74 6.90 - 88.99 1.80 151.8% 20.9% 130.8%
ITWO 12/27/08 5.61 16.00 - 87.16 1.08 185.2% 22.6% 162.6%
JOYG 12/27/08 21.95 48.86 - 87.16 1.08 122.6% 22.6% 100.0%
TRMS 12/27/08 1.03 3.55 - 87.16 1.08 244.7% 22.6% 222.0%
CTGX 1/3/09 3.18 8.09 - 92.96 1.08 154.4% 15.0% 139.4%
PMD 1/3/09 6.44 5.47 - 92.96 1.08 -15.1% 15.0% -30.0%
HPY 1/24/09 8.54 14.08 - 83.11 1.08 64.9% 28.6% 36.3%
HLIT 1/31/09 5.15 6.25 - 82.83 1.08 21.4% 29.0% -7.7%
HGT 1/31/09 13.06 17.39 0.36 82.83 1.08 35.9% 29.0% 6.9%
CNU 2/8/09 1.96 2.90 - 86.98 1.08 48.0% 22.9% 25.1%
SJT 2/8/09 19.05 18.02 0.29 86.98 1.08 -3.9% 22.9% -26.8%
SGU 2/8/09 2.55 3.68 0.07 86.98 1.08 47.0% 22.9% 24.1%
TC 2/8/09 4.33 12.48 - 86.98 1.08 188.2% 22.9% 165.3%
bioc 2/14/09 3.72 4.30 - 82.76 1.08 15.6% 29.1% -13.6%
FORR 2/14/09 17.56 26.52 - 82.76 1.08 51.0% 29.1% 21.9%
ZYXI.OB 2/14/09 1.20 1.23 - 82.76 1.08 2.5% 29.1% -26.6%
FRD 2/21/09 4.95 6.05 - 77.42 1.08 22.2% 38.0% -15.8%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.84 - 77.42 1.08 38.4% 38.0% 0.3%
MTXX 2/21/09 17.90 5.61 - 77.42 1.08 -68.7% 38.0% -106.7%
TYPE 2/21/09 3.02 8.40 - 77.42 1.08 178.1% 38.0% 140.1%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 5.38 - 77.42 1.08 -0.6% 38.0% -38.6%
PDO 2/21/09 3.19 4.74 - 77.42 1.08 48.6% 38.0% 10.5%
SAPE 2/21/09 3.38 8.02 - 77.42 1.08 137.3% 38.0% 99.2%
VDSI 2/21/09 5.25 7.63 - 77.42 1.08 45.3% 38.0% 7.3%
IGTE 2/21/09 2.99 8.82 - 77.42 1.08 195.0% 38.0% 156.9%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 81.72 - 73.93 1.08 98.0% 44.6% 53.4%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 97.88 - 73.93 1.08 76.4% 44.6% 31.9%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 49.30 - 73.93 1.08 69.9% 44.6% 25.4%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 1.94 - 77.42 1.08 115.6% 38.0% 77.5%
EXBD 3/6/09 12.96 23.89 - 68.92 1.08 84.3% 55.1% 29.3%
DISH 3/6/09 9.27 19.69 - 68.92 1.08 112.4% 55.1% 57.3%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 3.80 - 68.92 1.08 169.5% 55.1% 114.4%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 29.06 - 68.92 1.08 72.3% 55.1% 17.2%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.20 - 87.08 0.52 6.3% 22.1% -15.7%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 8.23 - 87.89 0.52 106.8% 21.0% 85.8%
TWX 5/1/09 22.84 30.05 - 87.89 0.52 31.6% 21.0% 10.6%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 23.11 - 87.89 0.52 -22.5% 21.0% -43.5%
ULCM.PK 5/1/09 2.18 2.75 - 87.89 0.52 26.1% 21.0% 5.2%
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 6.55 - 88.71 0.52 92.1% 19.8% 72.2%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 42.23 - 92.53 0.52 38.8% 14.9% 23.9%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 13.49 - 92.53 0.52 70.8% 14.9% 55.9%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 16.69 - 94.55 0.52 15.0% 12.4% 2.6%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 4.84 - 94.55 0.52 6.4% 12.4% -6.1%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 4.88 - 95.08 0.52 87.7% 11.8% 75.9%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 15.93 - 92.04 - -4.8% 15.0% -19.8%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 26.24 - 92.04 - 14.3% 15.0% -0.6%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 31.05 - 87.96 - 31.1% 20.3% 10.8%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 45.78 - 98.06 - 0.9% 7.9% -7.0%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 7.59 - 98.81 - 16.1% 7.1% 9.0%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 18.78 - 98.81 - 34.6% 7.1% 27.5%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 31.70 - 98.81 - 8.9% 7.1% 1.8%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 44.17 - 98.81 - 7.8% 7.1% 0.7%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 3.79 - 98.81 - -2.6% 7.1% -9.6%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 6.19 - 98.81 - 46.3% 7.1% 39.3%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 12.77 - 98.81 - 3.4% 7.1% -3.7%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 4.23 - 98.81 - 5.8% 7.1% -1.3%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 29.75 - 98.81 - 21.2% 7.1% 14.1%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 12.60 - 98.81 - 10.0% 7.1% 3.0%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 7.16 - 100.79 - 3.0% 5.0% -1.9%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 22.94 - 100.79 - 26.6% 5.0% 21.6%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 5.31 - 102.96 - 4.1% 2.8% 1.4%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 4.80 - 102.96 - 57.9% 2.8% 55.1%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 4.95 - 102.96 - 8.8% 2.8% 6.0%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 2.15 - 102.60 - 20.1% 3.1% 17.0%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 26.45 - 104.77 - 1.7% 1.0% 0.7%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 3.98 - 106.72 - 7.0% -0.9% 7.9%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 23.5% -1.8% 25.3%
58.3% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed -25.7% -30.7% 4.9%
S&P C

105.80

Open 62.5% 20.8% 41.7%
















Top 30 Portfolio







Totals 29.2% 2.3% 26.9%






Closed -15.1% -29.8% 14.6%
MFLO39473 77.6%



Open 54.9% 21.0% 34.0%

2 comments:

Homer315 said...

Marsh, how do you compare the lists? It seems labor intensive, so I assume you have some short of programmatic shortcut to see whether anything is new. Also, do you check every day (I know you said you only buy on the weekend additions but...)

Marsh_Gerda said...

Albert, I do just cut and paste the top 30 and top 50 every weekend into an excel spreadsheet. I then have a formula that checks to see if stock has appeared in past 52 weeks. That being said, I can almost just look and tell.

I do not check every day.

MG