Here is my current portfolio and the percent gains:
| WILC | 215% |
| UTA | 90% |
| CKSW | 268% |
| UEPS | 71% |
| QXM | 25% |
| HCKT | 46% |
| CBI | 40% |
| ENDP | 43% |
| BR | 29% |
| GME | 24% |
| AIRV | 14% |
| KHD | 12% |
| BKE | 30% |
| AMED | 25% |
| PFE | 24% |
| BIOC | 18% |
| GTLS | 19% |
| WH | 24% |
| FRX | 28% |
| CEU | 13% |
| PVSW | 17% |
| CSKI | 8% |
| WTW | 7% |
| KSW | 5% |
| RTN | 3% |
| QCOR | 3% |
| PRIM | 2% |
| GIGM | -4% |
| JCOM | -6% |
| JTX | -4% |
| CHCG | -8% |
| CMED | -13% |
HCKT was a huge gainer today, up about 8%. CEU was up almost 10% and PSVW was up about 6%. All are mechanical picks, I may add. I saw CSCO was buying STAR today, so the M&A activity, which I think is critcal for the bull run of these value stocks continues.
I did add a new stock today: LIWA. It is not on the list and has already had a pretty good run. But when I did my pro-forma calculations I got a EY of about 14% and ROIC of 100%, which would likely qualify it as a top 50 stock. I don't think it is on as the data only has three quarters, so I had to estimate the missing quarter. Here are its stats:
| liwa | ||
| + | Operating Income After Depreciation | 26.05 |
| - | Minority Interest - Income Account | - |
| = | Income for Calculation | 26.05 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21.818 | |
| Share Price | 9.12 | |
| + | Market Cap Calc | 198.98 |
| + | Preferred Capital | 13.12 |
| + | Debt in Current Liabilities | 4.39 |
| + | Long-Term Debt | - |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | 28.85 | |
| - | Excess Cash | 28.85 |
| = | Enterprise Value | 187.64 |
| + | Property Plant and Equipment - Net | 16.36 |
| + | Receivables | 8.46 |
| + | Inventories | 7.92 |
| + | Other Current Assests | 0.17 |
| + | Working Cash | - |
| - | Accounts Payable | 5.12 |
| - | Current Liabilities - Other | 0.57 |
| = | Invested Capital | 27.22 |
| Earnings Yield | 14% | |
| ROIC | 96% |
The draw of course is how they're growing their revenues and earnings. Here are the past three quarters, with the top line being revenues and the bottom line operating income:
| Q2 2009 | Q1 2009 | Q4 2008 | Q3 2008 |
| 6/30/2009 | 3/31/2009 | ####### | 9/30/2008 |
| 48.827 | 20.539 | 25.237 | 20.1375 |
| 38.796 | 14.609 | 15.772 | 12.971 |
| 1.68 | 0.746 | 1.754 | 1.1645 |
| 8.351 | 5.184 | 7.711 | 6.002 |
Today they just announced increased capacity (Lihua International Announces Production Capacity Expansion), from 550 metric tons a month of copper wire to 1,250 metric tons. It is a risky play for me, but I do think the stock has strong upside.
On another tangent, I am considering a new spin portfolio which makes a bit of fun of Cramer's "Are You Diversified"? It is hard to read anything financial related without worrying about inflation and the US dollar. Check out the following headlines:
- Gold Heading to $3000 Unless America Hits the "Reset" Button, Tice Says
- How to Play $2,000 Gold
- Inflation Inevitable, Rogers Says: Could Be Much Worse Than the 1970s
- Clouds Swirling Around the Dollar
My thought was to create a diversified portfolio, with at least one stock per continent (geographical diversification) and then various industries. Here are some stocks I am considering, I probably would not start this until 2010, though I might start buying some of the stocks this fall:
UEPS - South Africa MFI stock
FSUMF - Australian Iron Ore stock
IBN - Indian Bank
TEVA - Israeli Generic Pharmaceutical
HBMFF - Canadian Gold/Zinc mining company
CIG - Brazilan Utility
EN - Italian Utility
STA - Norwegian Oil & Gas
SLB - French Drilling Company
NOK - Finnish Telephone manufacturer
Of course I also have LIWA, CEU, CHCG, CEU, CMED, WILC, KHD, CBI, QXM, UTA, WH and GIGM; plus Moose pick EPP. I have to say that KHD at $10.57 strikes me as an extremely cheap stock right now and is squarely positioned to benefit if we get a V shape in Asia and parts of Europe. Keep in mind they have more cash than their market cap, $11.92 per share.
Enough rambling.
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3 comments:
KHD's cash isn't really cash though is it? I remember some discussion, whether it was on here on another blog I visit, about how the cash that shows up on the balance sheet is not really KHD's.
OK, I found it -- it was written up on VIC on 11/14/07 and the discussion talks about the cash back then. More than half the cash they had back then was either customer deposits or required by banks for letters of credit/bonding, etc. The cash that shows up on the balance sheet is misleading. I own the stock, and think it's a decent value, but it doesn't really have that much case, and the filings show a commensurate liability.
BTW Marsh, did you ever apply to be a member of VIC?
Homer - thanks for the clarification. I may dig a bit further into that as the offset needs to be on the balance sheet as well. Would it be Accounts Payable? I have not applied with VIC, though the stock I was going to write-up (ACE) has done very well.
MG
BTW, I was on DaveinHackensack's blog, and he asked me why my blog profile was private, and I told him that I did the minimum to sign up so that I could post comments on some people's blogs (who did not allow anonymous postings). Anyway, so when I clicked on my profile to see what, if any, information was available, it asked me to input a user name, which I had heretofor neglected to do.
So Homer, in this case, is the artist formally known as Albert.
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