Saturday, August 29, 2009

Where I Stand

Well, I have been at this for about 43 months. Overall I am down about 10%. I have slid back a bit the past several weeks as I had gotten to within 6% of breakeven. I am up 64% in 2009 and 133% from my low point last November. Here are my current stocks:

FSUMF 167%
WILC 130%
CKSW 240%
UEPS 51%
ENDP 36%
QXM 17%
PFE 17%
UTA 27%
BR 25%
FRX 26%
HCKT 15%
AIRV 8%
JTX 8%
CBI 14%
WH 4%
SEPR 4%
RTN 4%
GME 4%
BKE 2%
GTLS 1%
PVSW 0%
CEU -5%
GIGM -5%
BIOC -5%
KHD -23%
CHCG -32%
CMED -22%

For those wanting to follow the mechanical approach, CYTK and JCOM got added to the top 30 portfolio and CYTK and CMFO are new to the top 50 portfolio. I am debating whether to add CMFO to my portfolio this week. They are another new Chinese company to the AMEX, they all seem to have pretty good potential.

This is probably a good time to discuss a book I just finished, "The Little Book for Bull Moves in a Bear Market" by Peter Schiff. It was an interesting read, he is extreme doom and gloom on the US economy. To such an extreme that he says people should consider moving away from the US in the upcoming decade. He preaches investing in gold (he says he thinks it can go to $5,000) and directly in other exchanges (he wants to be away from the US dollar as he thinks it will become grossly devalued and there will be high inflation).

He wrote the book last summer, before Lehman imploded, though he did say it might in his book. While I am not sure it will get quite as austere as he says, it might be irresponsible not to at least consider it. In other countries he says to focus on basic materials and businesses servicing such businnesses (such as utilities). He favors dividend-paying companies with some growth opportunities.

He wants people to stay away from cash and US-denominated bonds. I tried to put together a list of investment ideas after reading the book (VE, SBS, CZZ, CCJ, FSUMF, GG, GLD, AEM, SLB, KF, TWN, GF, CIG, STO, PBR, SDA, WH, CPL, MFD and KHD).

I think if we have a pullback this fall, I may try to move into some of these names and will likely try to keep a substantial part of my MFI in non-US positions (right now: WILC, FSUMF, WH, CMED, CEU, UEPS, CHCG, GIGM, UTA, KHD and QXM). I may move back into CSKI (I sold at $16 post their recent earnings) and as mentioned above may consider CMFO.

Thinking hard about the book, I have to say that KHD is like the perfect stock at under $10. People may want to consider it seriously.

1 comment:

Homer315 said...

There is a detailed write up on VIC re CMFO. I actually bought it on 4/22 and then another larger basket on 6/2. It's done well for me, though it's fallen back recently. If the write up on VIC is accurate, it's still silly cheap.