While my portfolio wasn't exactly rocketing today, I was heartened to see the M&A activity continue. That bodes very well for value stocks. BJ Services will be acquired by BHI and Marvel is being bought by Disney. BJS was a regular on the lists back in 2007, MVL was on almost all of 2007 and the first part of 2008 (probably until Iron Man came out as there was a lot of debate whether Marvel could make a movie on their own).
I had very little green today, just GME (actually added to the infamous GS conviction list:GameStop shares rise on upgrade), UEPS, BR, FRX and CBI (upgraded by JPM:CB&I upgraded by JP Morgan).
JTX continued their slide down since being downgraded last week by Oppenheimer, dropping from $6.62 to $5.59. UTA is back to $9.80. This stock went briefly above $16 August 10th when they announced their earnings. I have to think $9.80 is a good entry point.
CKSW was the stock that Shyster helped me hold the line on. It seemed great when I bought back in as the stock went up from about $6.70 to $8.30 post their earnings, but they have now slid back to $6.30. I am still very bullish at $6.30.
Finally, I am glad I sold my CSKI at alomst $16 as they've dropped below $13. Another day tomorrow. My buy order for CMFO wasn't filled at $4.30 (went to $4.33), we'll see what happens tomorrow.
A final final thought. When was the last time you used a pager? Me too. Can't remember. That being said, USMO, a stock that is in the pager business keeps cranking out profits, with very little required investment, pays a 7.7% dividend and has gone from $8.4 a year ago to $12.73. What does this tell us? It tells me that people can be premature in writing off a mature technology. On the top 25 list now are ELNK and UNTD. Both companies got their start providing online internet access (as an option to AOL). UNTD hasalso bought FTD along the way. ELNK has a bucket full of cash and just started a dividend that works out to hmmm .56/8.32 = 6.7%. Could one of them be the next USMO, up 40% plus some juicy dividends?
Monday, August 31, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Where I Stand
Well, I have been at this for about 43 months. Overall I am down about 10%. I have slid back a bit the past several weeks as I had gotten to within 6% of breakeven. I am up 64% in 2009 and 133% from my low point last November. Here are my current stocks:
For those wanting to follow the mechanical approach, CYTK and JCOM got added to the top 30 portfolio and CYTK and CMFO are new to the top 50 portfolio. I am debating whether to add CMFO to my portfolio this week. They are another new Chinese company to the AMEX, they all seem to have pretty good potential.
This is probably a good time to discuss a book I just finished, "The Little Book for Bull Moves in a Bear Market" by Peter Schiff. It was an interesting read, he is extreme doom and gloom on the US economy. To such an extreme that he says people should consider moving away from the US in the upcoming decade. He preaches investing in gold (he says he thinks it can go to $5,000) and directly in other exchanges (he wants to be away from the US dollar as he thinks it will become grossly devalued and there will be high inflation).
He wrote the book last summer, before Lehman imploded, though he did say it might in his book. While I am not sure it will get quite as austere as he says, it might be irresponsible not to at least consider it. In other countries he says to focus on basic materials and businesses servicing such businnesses (such as utilities). He favors dividend-paying companies with some growth opportunities.
He wants people to stay away from cash and US-denominated bonds. I tried to put together a list of investment ideas after reading the book (VE, SBS, CZZ, CCJ, FSUMF, GG, GLD, AEM, SLB, KF, TWN, GF, CIG, STO, PBR, SDA, WH, CPL, MFD and KHD).
I think if we have a pullback this fall, I may try to move into some of these names and will likely try to keep a substantial part of my MFI in non-US positions (right now: WILC, FSUMF, WH, CMED, CEU, UEPS, CHCG, GIGM, UTA, KHD and QXM). I may move back into CSKI (I sold at $16 post their recent earnings) and as mentioned above may consider CMFO.
Thinking hard about the book, I have to say that KHD is like the perfect stock at under $10. People may want to consider it seriously.
| FSUMF | 167% |
| WILC | 130% |
| CKSW | 240% |
| UEPS | 51% |
| ENDP | 36% |
| QXM | 17% |
| PFE | 17% |
| UTA | 27% |
| BR | 25% |
| FRX | 26% |
| HCKT | 15% |
| AIRV | 8% |
| JTX | 8% |
| CBI | 14% |
| WH | 4% |
| SEPR | 4% |
| RTN | 4% |
| GME | 4% |
| BKE | 2% |
| GTLS | 1% |
| PVSW | 0% |
| CEU | -5% |
| GIGM | -5% |
| BIOC | -5% |
| KHD | -23% |
| CHCG | -32% |
| CMED | -22% |
For those wanting to follow the mechanical approach, CYTK and JCOM got added to the top 30 portfolio and CYTK and CMFO are new to the top 50 portfolio. I am debating whether to add CMFO to my portfolio this week. They are another new Chinese company to the AMEX, they all seem to have pretty good potential.
This is probably a good time to discuss a book I just finished, "The Little Book for Bull Moves in a Bear Market" by Peter Schiff. It was an interesting read, he is extreme doom and gloom on the US economy. To such an extreme that he says people should consider moving away from the US in the upcoming decade. He preaches investing in gold (he says he thinks it can go to $5,000) and directly in other exchanges (he wants to be away from the US dollar as he thinks it will become grossly devalued and there will be high inflation).
He wrote the book last summer, before Lehman imploded, though he did say it might in his book. While I am not sure it will get quite as austere as he says, it might be irresponsible not to at least consider it. In other countries he says to focus on basic materials and businesses servicing such businnesses (such as utilities). He favors dividend-paying companies with some growth opportunities.
He wants people to stay away from cash and US-denominated bonds. I tried to put together a list of investment ideas after reading the book (VE, SBS, CZZ, CCJ, FSUMF, GG, GLD, AEM, SLB, KF, TWN, GF, CIG, STO, PBR, SDA, WH, CPL, MFD and KHD).
I think if we have a pullback this fall, I may try to move into some of these names and will likely try to keep a substantial part of my MFI in non-US positions (right now: WILC, FSUMF, WH, CMED, CEU, UEPS, CHCG, GIGM, UTA, KHD and QXM). I may move back into CSKI (I sold at $16 post their recent earnings) and as mentioned above may consider CMFO.
Thinking hard about the book, I have to say that KHD is like the perfect stock at under $10. People may want to consider it seriously.
Mechanical Part Deux
I was thinking about my mechanical portfolio approach, which "buys a stock" when it is new to either the top 30 or top 50 list. One problem with that approach is that I only started tracking it back in January 2008. I started to think and I discovered a way to take it back another year, not in a perfect way, but in a reasonable facsimile.
What I did today was looked at my monthly tracking portfolios, which I pull each month and track for a year the top 50 stocks greater than 100m. I took the tracking portfolios starting in January 2007 (a year into the tracking) and considered a stock "new" if it had not been in my tracking portfolios the prior 12 months. Here is a list of how the stocks have done:
Obviously the ones at the very bottom are new to my portfolio I am just starting. Then here is a comparison of how the mechanicals have done against the Russell 3000 and the broader MFI portfolio month by month:
So 20 of the 32 tracking months, the mechanical approach has beaten the broader MFI approach. In addition, it is up an average of 4.3% per month year while the broader MFI is down 4.1% and Russell 3000 is down 7.4%.
Convinced?
What I did today was looked at my monthly tracking portfolios, which I pull each month and track for a year the top 50 stocks greater than 100m. I took the tracking portfolios starting in January 2007 (a year into the tracking) and considered a stock "new" if it had not been in my tracking portfolios the prior 12 months. Here is a list of how the stocks have done:
| Date | Stats |
| 1/26/2007 | CREL $13.51 $7.97 -41.0% |
| 1/26/2007 | SHOO $30.93 $15.70 -49.2% |
| 1/26/2007 | TGB $2.58 $3.82 48.1% |
| 1/26/2007 | USMO $16.84 $11.82 -29.8% |
| 2/27/2007 | AVCI $6.79 $7.31 7.7% |
| 2/27/2007 | AXCA $15.92 $23.34 46.6% |
| 2/27/2007 | BWLRF.PK$1.63 $1.45 -11.0% |
| 2/27/2007 | MFB $18.20 $12.71 -30.2% |
| 2/27/2007 | DGX $50.57 $48.43 -4.2% |
| 3/26/2007 | ALOY $11.70 $7.65 -34.6% |
| 3/26/2007 | IVAC $27.94 $13.82 -50.5% |
| 4/27/2007 | ENDP $31.40 $24.80 -21.0% |
| 4/27/2007 | FCGI $10.07 $12.99 29.0% |
| 4/27/2007 | FTAR.OB $3.87 $5.10 31.8% |
| 4/27/2007 | GNI $101.99 $116.50 14.2% |
| 4/27/2007 | PDII $9.21 $8.65 -6.1% |
| 4/27/2007 | VGR $17.06 $17.23 1.0% |
| 5/29/2007 | AMAT $19.03 $19.54 2.7% |
| 5/29/2007 | BPT $58.42 $95.76 63.9% |
| 5/29/2007 | CHCG.OB $5.74 $1.63 -71.6% |
| 5/29/2007 | HURC $47.0 $35.83 -23.8% |
| 5/29/2007 | LXK $52.46 $36.54 -30.3% |
| 5/29/2007 | SCSS $17.88 $2.67 -85.1% |
| 5/29/2007 | SUPX $31.93 $25.60 -19.8% |
| 5/29/2007 | TZOO $26.05 $10.64 -59.2% |
| 5/29/2007 | UTMD $31.32 $30.25 -3.4% |
| 5/29/2007 | WDC $17.98 $36.74 104.3% |
| 7/3/2007 | DPZ $18.43 $10.59 -42.5% |
| 7/3/2007 | GLBL $27.02 $16.58 -38.6% |
| 7/3/2007 | HBMFF.PK$25.29 $13.93 -44.9% |
| 7/3/2007 | ICFI $20.71 $16.16 -22.0% |
| 7/3/2007 | PBT $11.72 $25.46 117.2% |
| 7/30/2007 | ARDNA $126.23 $146.29 15.9% |
| 7/30/2007 | HLYS $22.04 $4.75 -78.4% |
| 7/30/2007 | MSTR $75.25 $60.11 -20.1% |
| 7/30/2007 | SIMG $6.99 $7.40 5.9% |
| 7/30/2007 | TBV $3.66 $.95 -74.0% |
| 7/30/2007 | WMCO $16.86 $12.39 -26.5% |
| 7/30/2007 | BEBE $13.96 $10.22 -26.8% |
| 8/30/2007 | GIB $10.48 $10.71 2.2% |
| 8/30/2007 | PLTE $20.86 $23.46 12.5% |
| 8/30/2007 | FRX $37.59 $35.71 -5.0% |
| 8/30/2007 | GYI $31.07 $33.98 9.4% |
| 8/30/2007 | MVL $22.44 $33.82 50.7% |
| 8/30/2007 | RDYN $6.75 $1.24 -81.6% |
| 8/30/2007 | TRB $27.13 $33.98 25.2% |
| 9/27/2007 | ARO 66.8% |
| 9/27/2007 | ARP $19.01 $17.01 -10.5% |
| 9/27/2007 | ABC $44.37 $38.29 -13.7% |
| 9/27/2007 | BVSN.OB $2.20 $.69 -68.6% |
| 9/27/2007 | HOG $45.39 $40.04 -11.8% |
| 9/27/2007 | SAI $18.93 $20.10 6.2% |
| 9/27/2007 | HGG $11.39 $9.83 -13.7% |
| 11/2/2007 | AMSG $25.66 $24.94 -2.8% |
| 11/2/2007 | CUTR $20.75 $8.51 -59.0% |
| 11/2/2007 | IAR $23.02 $.38 -98.3% |
| 11/2/2007 | LCAV $15.08 $3.42 -77.3% |
| 11/2/2007 | MASI $31.89 $31.99 .3% |
| 11/2/2007 | MHP $45.50 $26.86 -41.0% |
| 11/2/2007 | PMTI $23.95 $11.44 -52.2% |
| 11/2/2007 | TRID $6.84 $1.81 -73.5% |
| 11/28/2007 | CITP $13.07 $3.13 -76.1% |
| 11/28/2007 | CSGS $16.62 $16.33 -1.7% |
| 11/28/2007 | PCR $53.65 $17.58 -67.2% |
| 11/28/2007 | RHI $25.29 $20.16 -20.3% |
| 12/28/2007 | EPAX $17.82 $9.25 -48.1% |
| 12/28/2007 | DTPI $6.63 $4.24 -36.0% |
| 12/28/2007 | HTRN $4.51 $2.37 -47.5% |
| 12/28/2007 | NOVA $4.28 $3.48 -18.7% |
| 1/25/2008 | CAST $5.80 $2.59 -55.3% |
| 1/25/2008 | LOJN $11.01 $4.16 -62.2% |
| 1/25/2008 | LGTY $9.61 $4.50 -53.2% |
| 1/25/2008 | PRXI $5.60 $1.04 -81.4% |
| 1/25/2008 | SLXP $6.66 $7.96 19.5% |
| 1/25/2008 | JCOM $18.97 $18.12 -4.5% |
| 2/26/2008 | AFCE $8.14 $3.92 -51.8% |
| 2/26/2008 | AIRV $5.0 $5.52 10.4% |
| 2/26/2008 | CJR $20.93 $9.58 -54.2% |
| 2/26/2008 | GHM $18.68 $7.61 -59.3% |
| 2/26/2008 | MMS $37.17 $34.13 -8.2% |
| 2/26/2008 | MDP $45.07 $11.28 -75.0% |
| 2/26/2008 | NVTL $11.39 $5.75 -49.5% |
| 2/26/2008 | RECN $17.13 $13.02 -24.0% |
| 2/26/2008 | IUSA $7.84 $2.61 -66.7% |
| 3/24/2008 | DEPO $3.0 $2.68 -10.7% |
| 3/24/2008 | ELNK $7.93 $6.82 -14.0% |
| 3/24/2008 | HIRE $10.58 $19.75 86.7% |
| 3/24/2008 | LNCR $28.12 $22.29 -20.7% |
| 3/24/2008 | MRX $19.68 $13.06 -33.6% |
| 3/24/2008 | OMPI $9.35 $6.06 -35.2% |
| 3/24/2008 | BID $29.23 $10.20 -65.1% |
| 3/24/2008 | TSRA $15.02 $12.80 -14.8% |
| 3/24/2008 | TBI $14.24 $9.05 -36.4% |
| 4/25/2008 | AMSWA $5.83 $5.63 -3.4% |
| 4/25/2008 | CHE $32.56 $40.91 25.6% |
| 4/25/2008 | CHRD $4.82 $3.27 -32.2% |
| 4/25/2008 | IDAR.PK $3.59 $.08 -97.7% |
| 4/25/2008 | NTRI $18.56 $14.67 -21.0% |
| 4/25/2008 | QXM $6.46 $2.73 -57.8% |
| 4/25/2008 | SOAP $6.98 $3.68 -47.3% |
| 4/25/2008 | TRA $41.34 $27.90 -32.5% |
| 5/28/2008 | FTAR.OB $1.24 $.90 -27.4% |
| 5/28/2008 | MLHR $23.75 $14.23 -40.1% |
| 5/28/2008 | QCOR $5.22 $4.26 -18.4% |
| 5/28/2008 | VGR $15.04 $14.65 -2.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | AYI $39.91 $28.05 -29.7% |
| 7/2/2008 | CALM $30.28 $24.96 -17.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | CSKI $11.20 $13.48 20.4% |
| 7/2/2008 | PROJ $6.82 $4.34 -36.4% |
| 7/2/2008 | HHS $10.50 $9.25 -11.9% |
| 7/2/2008 | LRCX $36.46 $26.0 -28.7% |
| 7/2/2008 | tpc $27.95 $17.36 -37.9% |
| 7/2/2008 | SWIR $13.80 $5.72 -58.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | SIGM $14.43 $16.04 11.2% |
| 7/2/2008 | SNCR $8.58 $12.27 43.0% |
| 7/2/2008 | USNA $26.65 $29.73 11.6% |
| 7/29/2008 | APKT $4.92 $10.11 105.5% |
| 7/29/2008 | CF $151.81 $79.35 -47.7% |
| 7/29/2008 | COH $25.93 $28.05 8.2% |
| 7/29/2008 | DBTK $9.96 $8.65 -13.2% |
| 7/29/2008 | ZINC $12.04 $10.32 -14.3% |
| 7/29/2008 | LO $66.11 $72.0 8.9% |
| 7/29/2008 | NVDA $11.65 $13.04 11.9% |
| 7/29/2008 | SHFK.PK $27.50 $14.50 -47.3% |
| 7/29/2008 | VCLK $11.30 $11.61 2.7% |
| 7/29/2008 | VIA-B $29.66 $23.75 -19.9% |
| 7/29/2008 | IBAS $3.95 $1.89 -52.2% |
| 8/29/2008 | BARE $12.44 $9.56 -23.2% |
| 8/29/2008 | EME $34.07 $24.03 -29.5% |
| 8/29/2008 | MTW $24.83 $6.71 -73.0% |
| 8/29/2008 | PRM $2.60 $2.69 3.5% |
| 8/29/2008 | SPSS $31.58 $49.83 57.8% |
| 8/29/2008 | SCMP $9.50 $5.92 -37.7% |
| 9/26/2008 | EGN $46.31 $43.33 -6.4% |
| 9/26/2008 | KBR $16.04 $23.51 46.6% |
| 9/26/2008 | KHD $21.80 $9.78 -55.1% |
| 9/26/2008 | WFR $29.17 $16.55 -43.3% |
| 9/26/2008 | MLNX $9.53 $14.28 49.8% |
| 9/26/2008 | MNST $16.68 $16.36 -1.9% |
| 9/26/2008 | TTWO $16.16 $10.43 -35.5% |
| 10/31/2008 | BKE $25.79 $27.07 5.0% |
| 10/31/2008 | CTCM $7.40 $14.01 89.3% |
| 10/31/2008 | FWLT $27.40 $29.71 8.4% |
| 10/31/2008 | GRMN $21.46 $32.32 50.6% |
| 10/31/2008 | KNXA $8.91 $12.72 42.8% |
| 10/31/2008 | MSB $13.44 $9.40 -30.1% |
| 10/31/2008 | UEPS $14.0 $18.85 34.6% |
| 10/31/2008 | ELOS $9.41 $9.70 3.1% |
| 10/31/2008 | TSCM $3.91 $2.52 -35.5% |
| 10/31/2008 | WBC $18.16 $19.35 6.6% |
| 10/31/2008 | WDC $16.47 $34.35 108.6% |
| 11/26/2008 | GTLS $8.81 $19.73 124.0% |
| 11/26/2008 | FIX $8.29 $11.96 44.3% |
| 11/26/2008 | DAR $5.07 $7.22 42.4% |
| 11/26/2008 | GIGM $4.79 $4.77 -.4% |
| 11/26/2008 | HCKT $2.84 $2.64 -7.0% |
| 11/26/2008 | LOOP $6.20 $8.06 30.0% |
| 11/26/2008 | MSO $3.42 $6.99 104.4% |
| 11/26/2008 | MWW $11.65 $16.36 40.4% |
| 11/26/2008 | PRGX $4.79 $5.16 7.7% |
| 11/26/2008 | TWLL $5.60 $9.15 63.4% |
| 11/26/2008 | TKTM $4.0 $9.88 147.0% |
| 11/26/2008 | TRLG $12.81 $23.37 82.4% |
| 12/26/2008 | BIDZ $4.70 $3.15 -33.0% |
| 12/26/2008 | DELL $10.65 $15.93 49.6% |
| 12/26/2008 | ITWO $5.61 $14.78 163.5% |
| 12/26/2008 | MAXY $9.16 $6.83 -25.4% |
| 12/26/2008 | OPTV $1.17 $1.33 13.7% |
| 12/26/2008 | PBT $12.98 $12.08 -6.9% |
| 1/23/2009 | ADSK $16.26 $23.92 47.1% |
| 1/23/2009 | DHX $2.91 $5.85 101.0% |
| 1/23/2009 | MOS $35.39 $49.81 40.7% |
| 1/23/2009 | PRO $4.52 $8.14 80.1% |
| 2/27/2009 | AOB $3.69 $5.17 40.1% |
| 2/27/2009 | DECK $41.27 $69.08 67.4% |
| 2/27/2009 | DIVX $4.63 $5.51 19.0% |
| 2/27/2009 | FLR $33.03 $53.58 62.2% |
| 2/27/2009 | GTI $5.65 $14.61 158.6% |
| 2/27/2009 | HPY $5.47 $12.56 129.6% |
| 2/27/2009 | IPHS $10.36 $19.63 89.5% |
| 2/27/2009 | JOYG $17.27 $39.34 127.8% |
| 2/27/2009 | MTXX $17.63 $5.30 -69.9% |
| 2/27/2009 | PTIE $4.53 $5.16 13.9% |
| 2/27/2009 | QLGC $9.22 $16.07 74.3% |
| 2/27/2009 | SAPE $3.83 $7.38 92.7% |
| 2/27/2009 | SOLR $4.27 $5.27 23.4% |
| 2/27/2009 | TC $3.11 $11.98 285.2% |
| 2/27/2009 | VDSI $4.94 $8.63 74.7% |
| 2/27/2009 | VLCM $7.96 $14.29 79.5% |
| 3/27/2009 | EXBD $14.69 $24.36 65.8% |
| 3/27/2009 | MD $29.41 $52.09 77.1% |
| 3/27/2009 | QLTI $1.75 $4.24 142.3% |
| 3/27/2009 | SRDX $18.89 $23.14 22.5% |
| 4/24/2009 | ARP $5.44 $9.30 71.0% |
| 4/24/2009 | CRAI $21.99 $28.12 27.9% |
| 4/24/2009 | GNI $77.02 $90.18 17.1% |
| 4/24/2009 | INFI $5.97 $7.22 20.9% |
| 4/24/2009 | TYPE $4.03 $8.13 101.7% |
| 4/24/2009 | NOV $31.50 $37.23 18.2% |
| 4/24/2009 | PFE $12.89 $16.81 30.4% |
| 5/29/2009 | AMED $30.43 $45.08 48.1% |
| 5/29/2009 | BR $16.49 $20.60 24.9% |
| 5/29/2009 | CRAY $4.30 $7.38 71.6% |
| 5/29/2009 | JTX $3.97 $5.90 48.6% |
| 5/29/2009 | ASGN $3.57 $4.29 20.2% |
| 5/29/2009 | TWX $23.27 $28.33 21.7% |
| 5/29/2009 | UTA $7.90 $10.06 27.3% |
| 5/29/2009 | INT $42.36 $46.75 10.4% |
| 6/29/2009 | DISH $16.10 $16.86 4.7% |
| 6/29/2009 | DRC $25.96 $30.80 18.6% |
| 6/29/2009 | GME $22.17 $23.47 5.9% |
| 6/29/2009 | IILG $9.26 $11.0 18.8% |
| 6/29/2009 | VM $4.08 $4.82 18.1% |
| 7/29/2009 | AHCI $2.39 $2.57 7.5% |
| 7/29/2009 | GIB $9.74 $10.36 6.4% |
| 7/29/2009 | CBI $13.42 $15.51 15.6% |
| 7/29/2009 | CBEH $6.05 $6.84 13.1% |
| 7/29/2009 | HRS $31.61 $35.04 10.9% |
| 7/29/2009 | NPSP $3.99 $4.22 5.8% |
| 7/29/2009 | RTN $46.57 $47.32 1.6% |
| 7/29/2009 | SHAW $28.47 $30.87 8.4% |
| 7/29/2009 | WTW $27.03 $27.66 2.3% |
| 7/29/2009 | WG $13.61 $12.92 -5.1% |
| 8/28/2009 | BBND $3.97 $3.97 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | CEU $5.15 $5.15 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | CMFO $4.55 $4.55 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | CYTK $3.04 $3.04 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | KNDL $13.22 $13.22 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | LHCG $24.72 $24.72 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | PRIM $7.04 $7.04 .0% |
| 8/28/2009 | SEPR $18.59 $18.59 .0% |
Obviously the ones at the very bottom are new to my portfolio I am just starting. Then here is a comparison of how the mechanicals have done against the Russell 3000 and the broader MFI portfolio month by month:
| Average of Percent Change | |||||
| Date | Total | IWV | Broader MFI | Beat Russell | Beat Broad |
| 1/26/2007 | -18.0% | -6.6% | -10.2% | 0 | 0 |
| 2/27/2007 | 1.8% | -1.0% | -3.7% | 1 | 1 |
| 3/26/2007 | -42.6% | -5.5% | -9.8% | 0 | 0 |
| 4/27/2007 | 8.2% | -5.0% | -10.9% | 1 | 1 |
| 5/29/2007 | -12.2% | -6.3% | -11.5% | 0 | 0 |
| 7/3/2007 | -6.2% | -15.6% | -30.0% | 1 | 1 |
| 7/30/2007 | -29.2% | -11.5% | -19.9% | 0 | 0 |
| 8/30/2007 | 1.9% | -8.7% | -12.5% | 1 | 1 |
| 9/27/2007 | -6.5% | -18.2% | -19.0% | 1 | 1 |
| 11/2/2007 | -50.5% | -34.3% | -40.4% | 0 | 0 |
| 11/28/2007 | -41.3% | -38.3% | -40.1% | 0 | 0 |
| 12/28/2007 | -37.6% | -40.0% | -36.3% | 1 | 0 |
| 1/25/2008 | -39.5% | -35.9% | -36.4% | 0 | 0 |
| 2/26/2008 | -42.0% | -36.8% | -51.7% | 0 | 1 |
| 3/24/2008 | -16.0% | -35.6% | -40.9% | 1 | 1 |
| 4/25/2008 | -33.3% | -34.4% | -25.6% | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28/2008 | -22.1% | -33.6% | -22.2% | 1 | 1 |
| 7/2/2008 | -12.2% | -25.3% | -11.7% | 1 | 0 |
| 7/29/2008 | -5.2% | -16.3% | -10.5% | 1 | 1 |
| 8/29/2008 | -17.0% | -17.9% | -13.8% | 1 | 0 |
| 9/26/2008 | -6.5% | -13.1% | -8.5% | 1 | 1 |
| 10/31/2008 | 25.8% | 9.9% | 17.8% | 1 | 1 |
| 11/26/2008 | 56.5% | 20.6% | 43.3% | 1 | 1 |
| 12/26/2008 | 26.9% | 21.7% | 36.5% | 1 | 0 |
| 1/23/2009 | 67.2% | 27.2% | 46.6% | 1 | 1 |
| 2/27/2009 | 79.2% | 43.1% | 74.4% | 1 | 1 |
| 3/27/2009 | 76.9% | 28.7% | 50.5% | 1 | 1 |
| 4/24/2009 | 41.0% | 20.3% | 29.7% | 1 | 1 |
| 5/29/2009 | 34.1% | 12.6% | 18.0% | 1 | 1 |
| 6/29/2009 | 13.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 1 | 1 |
| 7/29/2009 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 1 | 1 |
| 8/28/2009 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Total | 4.3% | -7.4% | -4.1% | 1 | 1 |
So 20 of the 32 tracking months, the mechanical approach has beaten the broader MFI approach. In addition, it is up an average of 4.3% per month year while the broader MFI is down 4.1% and Russell 3000 is down 7.4%.
Convinced?
Friday, August 28, 2009
Further Thoughts on UEPS
I did read the UEPS conference call transcript (Net1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. F4Q09 (Qtr End 6/30/09) Earnings Call Transcript). All-in-all I was impresssed. Management seems savvy and has a lot of irons in the fire. The risk to the company is they seem to have a contract with the Govt of South Africa and it would hurt to lose that. But there is also some real strong upside as they may partner with Mastercard and they also are making inroads in Ghana and Iraq.
While they expect earnings per share to grow by 20% in 2010, half of that is coming from reduced share count.
All-in-all, it wasn't a great week for the old portfolio. I'll publish the graphs etc over the weekend. Not a disaster mind you, but I am giving back some of my ground over the bencmark and I can't seem to close the final gap to get to break-even. I'm thrilled with my current approach and how far the portfolio has come this year (up about 66%). Hopefully we'll get over the hump in 2009.
While they expect earnings per share to grow by 20% in 2010, half of that is coming from reduced share count.
All-in-all, it wasn't a great week for the old portfolio. I'll publish the graphs etc over the weekend. Not a disaster mind you, but I am giving back some of my ground over the bencmark and I can't seem to close the final gap to get to break-even. I'm thrilled with my current approach and how far the portfolio has come this year (up about 66%). Hopefully we'll get over the hump in 2009.
Current Top 30 Mechanical Portfolio
Here is my current Mechanical Top 30 Portfolio. As a reminder, a stock gets added to the list if it hasn't been in the top 30 greater than $50m in the past 52 weeks. When it gets added, I hold it for a year. At the same time, I add a S&P 500 etf to track relative performance. I manually update for dividends, though it is possible I miss a few. As you can see at the bottom, the mechanical is trouncing the benchmark. I have been using this tacking approach since late January 2008.
| Symbol | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff | |
| EGMI.OB | 9/6/08 | 0.69 | 1.48 | - | 124.42 | 2.49 | 114.5% | -14.9% | 129.4% |
| KHD | 9/13/08 | 20.68 | 9.78 | - | 126.09 | 2.49 | -52.7% | -16.0% | -36.7% |
| TTWO | 9/20/08 | 16.57 | 10.43 | - | 124.12 | 2.49 | -37.1% | -14.7% | -22.3% |
| SCMP | 9/26/08 | 8.29 | 5.92 | - | 120.85 | 1.80 | -28.6% | -13.0% | -15.6% |
| DTLK | 9/26/08 | 4.34 | 3.46 | - | 120.85 | 1.80 | -20.3% | -13.0% | -7.3% |
| TRA | 9/26/08 | 28.42 | 32.12 | 0.30 | 120.85 | 1.80 | 14.1% | -13.0% | 27.0% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 9.40 | 0.40 | 88.50 | 1.80 | -3.2% | 18.8% | -22.0% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 18.85 | - | 88.50 | 1.80 | 29.3% | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 2.52 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 1.80 | -30.7% | 12.8% | -43.5% |
| EME | 11/1/08 | 17.77 | 24.03 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 35.2% | 8.6% | 26.6% |
| CTCM | 11/1/08 | 7.40 | 14.01 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 89.3% | 8.6% | 80.7% |
| PRGX | 11/1/08 | 4.24 | 5.16 | - | 96.83 | 1.80 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 30.72 | 0.40 | 93.86 | 1.80 | 54.3% | 12.1% | 42.2% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 14.11 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 1.80 | 3.9% | 12.1% | -8.2% |
| BIDZ | 11/22/08 | 2.39 | 3.15 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 31.8% | 32.3% | -0.5% |
| KBR | 11/22/08 | 10.45 | 23.51 | 0.10 | 79.52 | 1.80 | 125.9% | 32.3% | 93.7% |
| OPTV | 11/22/08 | 0.94 | 1.33 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 41.5% | 32.3% | 9.2% |
| IBAS | 11/22/08 | 1.21 | 2.30 | - | 79.52 | 1.80 | 90.1% | 32.3% | 57.8% |
| Vclk | 11/29/08 | 6.17 | 10.51 | - | 90.09 | 1.80 | 70.3% | 16.7% | 53.6% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 5.51 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 26.1% | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 6.83 | - | 87.93 | 1.80 | 17.8% | 19.6% | -1.9% |
| ESIC | 12/13/08 | 1.13 | 1.74 | - | 88.99 | 1.80 | 54.0% | 18.2% | 35.8% |
| MSO | 12/27/08 | 2.80 | 6.99 | - | 87.16 | 1.08 | 149.6% | 19.8% | 129.8% |
| TRMS | 12/27/08 | 1.03 | 2.47 | - | 87.16 | 1.08 | 139.8% | 19.8% | 120.0% |
| WFR | 12/27/08 | 13.43 | 16.55 | - | 87.16 | 1.08 | 23.2% | 19.8% | 3.4% |
| AHCI | 1/3/09 | 1.15 | 2.57 | - | 92.96 | 1.08 | 123.5% | 12.4% | 111.1% |
| CKSW | 1/3/09 | 1.99 | 6.76 | - | 92.96 | 1.08 | 239.7% | 12.4% | 227.3% |
| COH | 2/14/09 | 13.97 | 29.27 | - | 82.76 | 1.08 | 109.5% | 26.2% | 83.3% |
| DELL | 2/21/09 | 8.41 | 15.93 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 89.4% | 34.9% | 54.5% |
| SOLR | 2/21/09 | 4.22 | 5.27 | - | 77.42 | 1.08 | 24.9% | 34.9% | -10.0% |
| DECK | 2/28/09 | 41.27 | 69.08 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 67.4% | 41.3% | 26.1% |
| FWLT | 2/28/09 | 15.04 | 29.71 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 97.5% | 41.3% | 56.2% |
| HCKT | 2/28/09 | 2.56 | 2.64 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 3.1% | 41.3% | -38.2% |
| MWW | 2/28/09 | 6.59 | 16.36 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 148.3% | 41.3% | 107.0% |
| PTIE | 2/28/09 | 4.53 | 5.16 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 13.9% | 41.3% | -27.4% |
| TRLG | 2/28/09 | 10.22 | 23.37 | - | 73.93 | 1.08 | 128.7% | 41.3% | 87.4% |
| qlti | 3/6/09 | 1.41 | 4.24 | - | 68.92 | 1.08 | 200.7% | 51.6% | 149.1% |
| exbd | 3/6/09 | 12.96 | 24.36 | 0.44 | 68.92 | 1.08 | 91.4% | 51.6% | 39.8% |
| FIX | 3/13/09 | 9.73 | 11.96 | 76.09 | 1.08 | 22.9% | 37.3% | -14.4% | |
| DBTK | 3/13/09 | 6.65 | 8.78 | - | 76.09 | 1.08 | 32.0% | 37.3% | -5.3% |
| LOOP | 3/13/09 | 5.77 | 8.06 | - | 76.09 | 1.08 | 39.7% | 37.3% | 2.4% |
| PRO | 3/27/09 | 4.29 | 8.14 | - | 81.61 | 0.52 | 89.7% | 27.3% | 62.4% |
| ACN | 4/9/09 | 27.71 | 34.20 | - | 85.81 | 0.52 | 23.4% | 21.1% | 2.3% |
| INFI | 4/16/09 | 5.83 | 7.22 | - | 87.08 | 0.52 | 23.8% | 19.3% | 4.5% |
| TSRA | 5/1/09 | 14.52 | 25.06 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 72.6% | 18.2% | 54.4% |
| RST | 5/1/09 | 29.83 | 22.58 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | -24.3% | 18.2% | -42.5% |
| ULCM.pk | 5/1/09 | 2.18 | 2.25 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 3.2% | 18.2% | -15.0% |
| TYPE | 5/1/09 | 3.80 | 8.13 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 113.9% | 18.2% | 95.7% |
| CRAY | 5/1/09 | 3.98 | 7.38 | - | 87.89 | 0.52 | 85.4% | 18.2% | 67.2% |
| INT | 5/8/09 | 41.90 | 46.75 | - | 92.98 | 0.52 | 11.6% | 11.7% | -0.2% |
| IPHS | 5/15/09 | 15.03 | 19.63 | - | 88.71 | 0.52 | 30.6% | 17.1% | 13.5% |
| GNI | 5/29/09 | 86.75 | 90.18 | 1.80 | 92.53 | 0.52 | 6.0% | 12.3% | -6.3% |
| UTA | 5/29/09 | 7.90 | 10.06 | - | 92.53 | 0.52 | 27.3% | 12.3% | 15.1% |
| FRX | 6/5/09 | 23.66 | 29.11 | - | 94.55 | 0.52 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 13.1% |
| ONTY | 6/11/09 | 2.60 | 5.58 | - | 95.08 | 0.52 | 114.6% | 9.3% | 105.3% |
| VM | 6/11/09 | 4.24 | 4.82 | - | 95.08 | 0.52 | 13.7% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| BPI | 6/19/09 | 16.74 | 18.51 | - | 92.04 | - | 10.6% | 12.3% | -1.7% |
| MTXX | 7/2/09 | 5.77 | 5.30 | - | 91.84 | - | -8.1% | 12.6% | -20.7% |
| JTX | 7/2/09 | 5.74 | 5.90 | - | 91.84 | - | 2.8% | 12.6% | -9.8% |
| GIGM | 7/24/09 | 4.98 | 4.77 | - | 98.06 | - | -4.2% | 5.4% | -9.6% |
| CBI | 7/31/09 | 13.95 | 15.51 | - | 98.81 | - | 11.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% |
| BR | 7/31/09 | 17.27 | 20.60 | - | 98.81 | - | 19.3% | 4.6% | 14.7% |
| LO | 7/31/09 | 73.72 | 72.13 | - | 98.81 | - | -2.2% | 4.6% | -6.8% |
| ITWO | 8/7/09 | 14.36 | 14.78 | - | 101.20 | - | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| BKE | 8/14/09 | 26.54 | 27.07 | - | 100.79 | - | 2.0% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
| GTLS | 8/14/09 | 20.73 | 19.73 | - | 100.79 | - | -4.8% | 2.6% | -7.4% |
| PRIM | 8/14/09 | 6.95 | 7.04 | - | 100.79 | - | 1.3% | 2.6% | -1.3% |
| SEPR | 8/14/09 | 18.12 | 18.59 | - | 100.79 | - | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| PVSW | 8/14/09 | 5.00 | 4.95 | - | 100.79 | - | -1.0% | 2.6% | -3.6% |
| CEU | 8/21/09 | 5.10 | 5.15 | - | 102.96 | - | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Totals | 23.3% | 0.6% | 22.8% | ||||||
| 66.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | -18.0% | -32.8% | 14.8% | |||||
| S&P C | 103.38 | Open | 43.4% | 16.8% | 26.7% | ||||
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