Best MFI Blog (LOL)

I had to laugh when I saw that MagicDiligence author Steve Alexander called this the "best MFI blog for his money"... it is free, which I suppose makes it extra good. But I appreciate the plug.

I bought COH at the start of this week. It is a truly beaten down stock as I suppose the market has fears that people will make their current $500 purses last longer in these tough times. I go two ways on that. Part of me thinks the wealthy are still spending money. Certainly TRLG and their $400 jeans are selling well. But today I told my wife we bought COH as she has a Coach purse (it is at least 5 years old). Now it is just one anecdotal instance, but she told me that COH had become too common and was no longer the brand of choice at the high end. Now that is a little troubling. I suppose i'll follow the formula, but that'll be the last COH I'll buy. They may have a moat, but I suspect it is a fickle moat.

I don't think I got to comment on the earnings by TRA, which were very very good (Terra Industries Inc. Reports Record Second Quarter Results).

• revenues up over 20%
• operating income up over 100%
• CEO bullish, commenting on strong environment, "tight" supplies.
• flush with cash, 286m a year ago, now 752m
• dealers are placing their orders already for next spring as things are so tight.

TRA made $1.94 per share vs estimates of $1.22. I am stunned it has only gone up about 10%. I think the bull market in farming will go on for a long time... the emerging markets will be needing better food as much as they're craving copper and steel. This is the one area I think the good old USA can really start chipping at out trade deficits. Finally, one other positive piece of news that has not been built into TRA's price: they do use a lot of natural gas in their process... and the price coming down sharply these last 2 weeks could flow straight to TRA's bottom line.

I should be getting some "exitement" next week as earnings season accelerates.

IAR - July 29th. Last quarter things weren't as bad as people thought and the stock went up about 40% crushing the shorts. Since then the stock has given that all back and then some. Shorts are back in. What'll happen? Stay tuned! I know I will.

HW - also announces July 29th. They got crushed last quarter and I think the stock sold off about 20%. For some reason, analyst estimates haven't dropped much in past 90 days. July 29th will be an exciting day.

LRCX - what do you know, July 29th as well. These guys have been in free fall ($41 to $31) since their last q, which wasn't that bad. There is a malaise over technology in general right now.

MHP - July 29th as well (weird). These guys have close to a monopoly in ratings (though they have been taking a lot of flack (justifiably) lately). Lot of lawsuits flying about, though I think it'll be hard to win against them. But it is possible that S&P ratings will lose some of their luster going forward... and that is really what they sell, a stamp of approval.

TRID - they announce July (drum roll) 28th! Expectations are low, they made 8 cents last quarter and are expected to make 3 pennies (sounds so sad) this quarter. No one is expecting anything from TRID, for all of 2009 expectation for entire year is 9 cents. Things can always get worse (LCAV is living proof of that) but I think there is a greater likelihood of upside surprise than downside. The biggest thing going against TRID is that Barron's blessed them recently. That has been the kiss of death for my stocks (they also blessed LCAV & IAR).

Have a great weekend everyone.