Dreading Earnings Day

Remember my analogy to Pavlov and his dog drooling at the ringing of the bell and my aversion to earnings announcements? Well this morning was a classic case in point. I batted .250 (as long as we’re all comfortable with analogies… though perhaps the apropos analogy is I struck out on 4 pitches).

TRID – this chip manufacturer for high-end televisions had nothing but doom and gloom in their transcript (Trident Microsystems, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript). They did make a little money and have added to their cash position, but they are losing ground with one (Samsung) of their three major customers. They clearly have some work to do. The only thing that kept the stock getting blown out of the water was their significant cash position. They did get a little squirrelly about their plans for all the cash. No mention of dividends or stock buybacks. End results? Down 9%. Strike One.

ODP – Expectations were set so low last quarter, that their 25 cents per share (Office Depot rallies as investors focus on signs of improvement) was a relief. It looks like tough sledding, but appears to be priced in the stock, which popped up about 10% today to over $13. Remember, I bought ODP in January as I saw JG was buying it and they were a borderline MFI stock. He apparently bought it too soon (around $17) as did I ($14.40). I did like The Street Dot Com’s headline: “Marginal Sequential Improvement from ODP”. They must have been in a foul mood at TSCM as their stock was off 15% today… hey other people’s bad news makes me feel better. Ball One.

HSII – I was hopeful for HSII. The stock had risen from $32.50 to $37, in anticipation of good earnings. Well they disappointed the street (Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript). I wasn’t really sure the numbers and outlook were all that bad. I mean the stock had already dropped from $55 to $37 in the past year. The market didn’t agree with me… today. Result: down 11% and Strike two.

LCAV – deep down, I was worried about my laser vision company. Laser surgery has been getting negative press of late. And it certainly is a discretionary surgery for most people. Frankly, I am not sure I would do it, and I hate wearing glasses. I haven’t had a chance yet to peruse their results (LCA-Vision shares hit new low as 1Q profit drops), but they must have been poor as the stock sold off over 20% before I had taken the first sip of my Vanilla Latte. Result: down 19%... Strike 3!

I obviously need to get an earnings calendar put together so I can throw up before I read the earnings… it’ll save time and worry. I did find it interesting that my only “good” earnings call was the stock I bought based upon a guru. That is an approach I am going to start following more and more.

SIMG has been one of the few bright spots in my portfolio and was up another 6% today… now up over 30% in total. I was really tempted to sell them after they were up 10 or 15%... a stock in the green has been a rarity, I wanted to catch it and keep the profit forever. But I resisted and have watched it rise another 15% since then to about $5.80 a share. And the best news? They don’t have another earnings call until late July.

OT – I did see where TGIS had their call today as well. I had bailed on them after their last call caused the stock price to drop about 50% immediately. (one reason I am so far behind the benchmark). I sold them around $3.11 and I see today they are down 9% to $2.46. I am not sure they can fall much further as they are pretty close to liquidation value. I am sorry for anyone that played by the rules and held TGIS post those last earnings, where all bets were cleared off the table. It was Green 00 on the roulette wheel.

TRA – I am starting to watch this stock. They are off about 7% today to around $38. They sell fertilizer and nitrate material, think agriculture. That is one area now down in the current economy. They had a terrific earnings call last week and are ranked well on the MFI lists. Now I just need some guru to buy them and I am on my way.

I just checked. HW has earnings tomorrow. I'll get my barf bag ready, though I will go on the record about being optimistic about them.