Sunday, October 29, 2006

Welcome Back

I have returned from vacation. So much has happened that I don't think I can possibly update everything. I will briefly comment on various stocks:

BBSI - reported earnings on Wednesday (BBSI Announces Third Quarter 2006 Operating Results). They seemed good. Revenues were up 7% Y o Y. I suppose that was disappointing as 3 quarters over 3 quarters is +29%. Outlook for 4th quarter is +20% Y o Y. Stock got pounded (unfairly IMHO) dropping over $2.

BLDR - had poor earnings, with revenues down 11% Y o Y (Builders FirstSource Reports Third Quarter 2006 Results). They basically expect to struggle durning housing downturn. Dropped about 3% on the news. This stock will go up sharply next year if/when the Fed cuts rates.

ELX - reported earnings on Thursday (Emulex Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2007 Results). They got crushed, down 8%. Not sure why the big drop, perhaps people realized the cost of stock compensation, which drops eps 10 cents from 27 cents to 17 cents. Again, that is a huge hidden cost with change in GAAP.

FDG - Had earnings that didn't seem very good to me (Fording Canadian Coal Trust - 2006 third quarter earnings results). The stock didn't move much, so I guess people were expecting it.

MGLN - Had very good earnings (Magellan Health Services Reports Third Quarter 2006 Financial Results) and signed a new contract (Magellan Health Stock Climbs on Contract).

MSTR - had extremely good earnings (MicroStrategy Announces Third Quarter 2006 Financial Results). The stock was up over 10%.

MTEX - was mentioned in a Herb Greenberg article that Texas AG (Herb Greenberg: Texas Attorney General probing Mannatech) is considering a lawsuit about unfair trade practices. The stock dropped 16%.

PACR - had very good earnings (Pacer International Reports 3rd Quarter 2006 Diluted Earnings per Share Up Over 26 Percent). This is a quiet company that really gets at what MFI is all about.

RAIL - made $2.88 per share (FreightCar America, Inc. Reports Record Performance with Third Quarter Net Income Per Diluted Share of $2.88 on Sales of $395.8 Million). People sure don't believe in this stock at $54 price. The backlog of rail cars dropped from 16,846 to 12,176. But they announced a deal with TXU (that will be in 4th quarter) for a blistering 7,680 rail cars. I don't understand why this stock is below $60.

TBL - met expectations with their earnings. They commented that environment in 2007 will continue to be tough (Timberland quarterly profit falls; forecast weak).

UST - had what I felt were good earnings but dropped 5% (UST Inc.'s shares tumble despite earnings surprise). I guess they have gone up so much that earnings needed to be spectacular.

Wow, full week! More Zip, Zap Zoot next week. Overall I am up 3%, but trail benchmark by quite a bit still. I do have room for a 30th stock. Not sure what I'll do. Iam happy that I sold PTSC at 93 cents. It has since fallen to 73 cents. I didn't need that stress any longer.

Current Portfolio
Stock Cost Current Gain
UST $39.36 $53.31 39.8%
MSTR $94.36 $120.19 27.4%
ANF $61.13 $77.39 27.2%
PNCL $6.68 $8.46 26.6%
TGIS $10.34 $12.77 25.4%
TRLG $17.02 $20.91 22.9%
MGLN $38.34 $44.68 16.5%
ASEI $45.85 $52.88 15.3%
MTEX $13.11 $14.94 15.2%
BBSI $19.18 $21.38 11.5%
VPHM $11.80 $13.15 11.4%
ISNS $13.17 $14.49 10.0%
PGI $7.71 $8.31 7.8%
CHKE $37.55 $38.60 6.0%
FTO $28.76 $29.85 4.0%
ELX $17.85 $18.25 2.2%
BLDR $16.10 $15.52 -3.6%
KG $17.31 $16.66 -3.8%
PACR $32.53 $30.97 -3.9%
RAIL $58.18 $54.34 -6.6%
PTEN $26.72 $23.22 -12.7%
DLX $26.36 $22.00 -14.1%
PONR $30.98 $25.74 -16.9%
TBL $34.50 $28.24 -18.1%
FDG $34.03 $25.02 -21.8%
HW $33.04 $24.86 -24.8%
ORCT $11.83 $8.45 -28.6%
EZEN $2.84 $1.81 -36.2%
OVTI $27.79 $15.72 -43.4%




Current Gain/Loss ($) $144
Current Gain/Loss (%) 0.0%
Sold Gain/Loss ($) $10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%) 25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($) $10,194
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($) $21,350
Annual IRR 7.4%
Total Gain/Loss (%) 3.2%

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