Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Low Energy

Well Cramer was right. He said to get out of energy stocks a few weeks ago. I did not (actually added some PTEN to my side car portfolio) and it was painful today! The Dow was up 60+ points, but my MFI portfolio was down.

FDG down 4.47%
FTO down 3.68%
PCU down 3.90%
PTEN down 4.60%

Just too much for the rest of the portfolio to carry. Now riddle me this. If I were to buy a 31st MFI stock, would it be foolish (read stupid) to buy a stock like WNR? Gotta believe they'll be hitting bottom soon. Even Cramer says the bottom will come and he'll recommend oil/energy again.

"This is the wholesale destruction of commodities," Cramer said. "But somewhere in here there is opportunity and a chance to buy."

Funny, this exact same thing happened almost exactly a year ago when Refco blew up. Let me go back and look... On September 29th 2005 the XLE was at $54.03. It hit bottom on October 20th at $45.14. That is about a 17% decline. Go forward a year, XLE is $53.45 on September 29th. It is now $50.90. That is a 5% decline. Do we have more pain to come? I don't know, it is 14% off it's August high. I gotta believe we're nearing the bottom.

I looked at my 4 energy/commodity stocks. Since August 1st they have dropped on average by 15% (right on par with XLE).

Here is some more wisdom from JC (weird those being his initials).

Because Cramer believes that we could be at a bottom soon, and it "could happen like lightning," he needs people to be there when it happens.

"I feel the worst thing that could happen to oil is happening -- we have no hurricanes and no demand with bountiful supply," he said. "We are in the business of watching oil collapse."

There will come a point when people will have to buy oil, and that point is close, Cramer went on to say.

"We are a lot closer to a bottom than a top."

Time will tell, but when others are fearful, there are $ to be made.

I just read Jubak's article about 2007. Everyone should read it (
New Hope for 2007). He has become much more bullish on 2007 with the drop in interest rates and energy prices. Good stuff... perhaps it bodes well for my buy of BLDR.

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