Well, it is a very very cold New Year's Eve. I took a walk at about 11 this morning and it was 12 degrees. Now at 3 pm it is 8 degrees. I have a nice fire going, watching some meaningless NFL games and thought I'd do a flashback.
Let us take a look at some of my expired MFI Select Portfolios and see how the stocks have fared since then. I have outperformed with those picks... but would the outperformance have continued? I have my doubts... but let's flashback!
First portfolio. August 2012:
| 8/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $33.04 | $4.00 | 7.6% | 22.1% |
| KFY | $13.98 | $18.95 | $0.00 | 35.6% | 22.1% |
| MSFT | $30.19 | $31.92 | $0.92 | 8.8% | 22.1% |
| NSU | $3.62 | $3.33 | $0.12 | -4.6% | 22.1% |
| UIS | $19.96 | $24.52 | $0.00 | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| Totals | 14.1% | 22.1% |
That was how the portfolio ended in August 2013. Now let us look from 2013 to current:
| 8/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $33.04 | $62.00 | $1.66 | 92.7% | 48.8% |
| KFY | $18.95 | $41.38 | $1.20 | 124.7% | 48.8% |
| MSFT | $31.92 | $85.54 | $5.61 | 185.6% | 48.8% |
| NSU | $3.33 | $2.41 | $0.72 | -6.0% | 48.8% |
| UIS | $24.52 | $8.15 | $0.00 | -66.8% | 48.8% |
| Totals | 66.0% | 48.8% |
Wow, pretty impressive. Still a solid win.
Now November 2013. Here is the Portfolio that started Nov 2012:
| 11/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $537.62 | $527.28 | $8.75 | -0.3% | 36.7% |
| ABC | $40.21 | $69.23 | $0.86 | 74.3% | 36.7% |
| LPS | $23.89 | $34.26 | $0.40 | 45.1% | 36.7% |
| VIAB | $49.12 | $80.94 | $1.15 | 67.1% | 36.7% |
| WU | $12.77 | $16.40 | $0.50 | 32.3% | 36.7% |
| Totals | 43.7% | 36.7% |
Now let's look since 11/13 (I will withhold LPS as they were bought):
| 11/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $75.33 | $169.23 | $7.28 | 134.3% | 52.5% |
| ABC | $69.23 | $91.82 | $4.80 | 39.6% | 52.5% |
| LPS | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | |
| VIAB | $80.94 | $30.81 | $5.00 | -55.8% | 52.5% |
| WU | $16.40 | $19.01 | $2.55 | 31.5% | 52.5% |
| Totals | 37.4% | 52.5% |
The VIAB stinker just too much to overcome.
Now February 2013-14
| 2/1/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $450.60 | $500.66 | $8.75 | 13.1% | 21.1% |
| GA | $6.10 | $11.01 | $0.65 | 91.2% | 21.1% |
| STRZA | $16.06 | $27.98 | $0.00 | 74.2% | 21.1% |
| CA | $25.07 | $32.08 | $1.00 | 32.0% | 21.1% |
| NUS | $41.94 | $116.59 | $1.20 | 180.8% | 21.1% |
| Totals | 78.3% | 21.1% |
That was a great tranche. GA was bought not long thereafter, so I will exclude.
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $71.52 | $169.23 | $8.75 | 148.8% | 52.7% |
| STRZA | $27.98 | $35.52 | $0.00 | 26.9% | 52.7% |
| CA | $32.08 | $33.28 | $3.50 | 14.7% | 52.7% |
| NUS | $116.59 | $68.23 | $4.76 | -37.4% | 52.7% |
| Totals | 38.3% | 52.7% |
Once again, a stinker is enough to drag down results.
Now May 2013-14:
| 5/6/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| KLIC | $11.40 | $14.44 | $0.00 | 26.7% | 18.9% |
| CYOU | $29.24 | $28.02 | $0.00 | -4.2% | 18.9% |
| RDA | $9.74 | $16.79 | $0.10 | 73.5% | 18.9% |
| NVDA | $13.85 | $18.43 | $0.32 | 35.4% | 18.9% |
| CF | $183.97 | $243.22 | $2.80 | 33.7% | 18.9% |
| Totals | 33.0% | 18.9% |
Well, this one will be terrific with NVDA. I will drop RDA as they were bought.
| 5/6/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| KLIC | $14.44 | $24.35 | $0.00 | 68.6% | 45.4% |
| CYOU | $28.02 | $36.43 | $0.00 | 30.0% | 45.4% |
| NVDA | $18.43 | $193.50 | $1.61 | 958.7% | 45.4% |
| CF | $48.64 | $42.54 | $4.20 | -3.9% | 45.4% |
| Totals | 263.3% | 45.4% |
Well, NVDA did help. So first year flashback in total:
Good Guys 101.3% Russell 3000: 49.9%.
Now let us look at next 4 (then I'll quit).
| 8/15/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CF | $187.26 | $247.43 | $4.50 | 34.5% | 19.4% |
| FLR | $66.06 | $73.03 | $0.53 | 11.4% | 19.4% |
| AGX | $15.60 | $36.71 | $0.75 | 140.1% | 19.4% |
| KLIC | $11.29 | $14.26 | $0.00 | 26.3% | 19.4% |
| RPXC | $15.92 | $15.09 | $0.00 | -5.2% | 19.4% |
| Totals | 41.4% | 19.4% |
And then running to current:
| 8/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CF | $49.49 | $42.54 | $3.90 | -6.2% | 41.7% |
| FLR | $73.03 | $51.65 | $2.94 | -25.2% | 41.7% |
| AGX | $36.71 | $45.00 | $3.40 | 31.8% | 41.7% |
| KLIC | $14.26 | $24.35 | $0.00 | 70.8% | 41.7% |
| RPXC | $15.09 | $13.44 | $0.00 | -10.9% | 41.7% |
| Totals | 12.1% | 41.7% |
Hmm, we get stomped. No NVDA to rescue us.
| 11/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $17.22 | $19.21 | $0.00 | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| ATVI | $17.71 | $20.10 | $0.20 | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| GA | $9.04 | $11.90 | $0.23 | 34.2% | 14.5% |
| RPXC | $17.04 | $13.91 | $0.00 | -18.4% | 14.5% |
| SYNA | $48.01 | $61.90 | $0.00 | 28.9% | 14.5% |
| Totals | 14.2% | 14.5% |
Again, I'll drop GA. Here is going forward
| 11/15/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $19.21 | $25.05 | $0.00 | 30.4% | 35.9% |
| ATVI | $20.10 | $63.32 | $0.79 | 219.0% | 35.9% |
| RPXC | $13.91 | $13.44 | $0.00 | -3.4% | 35.9% |
| SYNA | $61.90 | $39.44 | $0.00 | -36.3% | 35.9% |
| Totals | 52.4% | 35.9% |
Activision saves the day!
Two to go. February 2014-15
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ATVI | $17.13 | $20.90 | $0.20 | 23.1% | 12.9% |
| KLAC | $61.47 | $61.47 | $18.40 | 29.9% | 12.9% |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $12.35 | $0.00 | -23.9% | 12.9% |
| SNDK | $69.55 | $75.91 | $0.83 | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| WNR | $39.11 | $37.13 | $3.04 | 2.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 8.5% | 12.9% |
And rolling it forward:
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ATVI | $20.90 | $63.32 | $0.56 | 205.7% | 32.4% |
| KLAC | $61.47 | $105.07 | $7.28 | 82.8% | 32.4% |
| RPXC | $12.35 | $13.44 | $0.00 | 8.8% | 32.4% |
| SNDK | $75.91 | $76.18 | $2.40 | 3.5% | 32.4% |
| WNR | $37.13 | $36.18 | $4.56 | 9.7% | 32.4% |
| Totals | 62.1% | 32.4% |
ATVI again! One last tranche to go in our flashback.
| 5/6/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $19.57 | $23.27 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.41 | $1.00 | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| CSCO | $22.79 | $28.89 | $0.78 | 30.2% | 12.9% |
| NSR | $25.82 | $30.69 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| RCII | $28.78 | $31.77 | $0.94 | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 12.9% |
Ooh, this one won't be pretty.
| 5/6/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $23.27 | $25.05 | $0.00 | 7.6% | 32.0% |
| CA | $31.41 | $33.28 | $2.50 | 13.9% | 32.0% |
| CSCO | $28.89 | $38.30 | $3.08 | 43.2% | 32.0% |
| NSR | $30.69 | $33.50 | $0.00 | 9.2% | 32.0% |
| RCII | $31.77 | $11.10 | $1.12 | -61.5% | 32.0% |
| Totals | 2.5% | 32.0% |
Yes, RCII has not fared well. So in summary for 2nd set.
Good Guys: 32.3%
Russell 3000: 35.5%
Pretty close, but edged out.
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