I have to say, in all the years I have been blogging, I am not sure I recall a stretch where MFI stocks have been so poor. As my readers know, I create every month a tracking portfolio of 50 MFI stocks that I "hold" for a year. So at any given time, I have 12 open tracking portfolios.
Below is a table of the composite results for each of the 12 open MFI tracking portfolios versus the benchmark Russell 3000. It is not pretty.
| Date | MFI | R3K | Lead |
| 11/25/2016 | 4.4% | 18.3% | 0 |
| 12/30/2016 | 1.3% | 16.8% | 0 |
| 1/27/2017 | 0.6% | 14.1% | 0 |
| 2/24/2017 | -0.4% | 10.5% | 0 |
| 3/31/2017 | -1.4% | 10.6% | 0 |
| 4/28/2017 | -5.2% | 9.5% | 0 |
| 5/26/2017 | -1.2% | 8.2% | 0 |
| 6/29/2017 | -3.6% | 7.5% | 0 |
| 7/28/2017 | -2.2% | 5.3% | 0 |
| 8/25/2017 | 4.2% | 6.6% | 0 |
| 9/29/2017 | -6.3% | 2.8% | 0 |
| 10/27/2017 | -8.4% | 0.4% | 0 |
| Open 12 | -1.5% | 9.2% |
So the average MFI portfolio is down 1.5% while the Russell 3000 is up 9.2%. Just dreadful. And look how things have fallen off the table. The portfolio started 10/27/17, not even two weeks ago, is already down 8.4%! Can that possibly be right?
Oh wait, it is not right. Here is corrected table:
| Date | MFI | R3K | Lead |
| 11/25/2016 | 4.4% | 18.3% | 0 |
| 12/30/2016 | 1.3% | 16.8% | 0 |
| 1/27/2017 | 0.6% | 14.1% | 0 |
| 2/24/2017 | -0.4% | 10.5% | 0 |
| 3/31/2017 | -1.4% | 10.6% | 0 |
| 4/28/2017 | -5.2% | 9.5% | 0 |
| 5/26/2017 | -1.2% | 8.2% | 0 |
| 6/29/2017 | -3.6% | 7.5% | 0 |
| 7/28/2017 | -2.2% | 5.3% | 0 |
| 8/25/2017 | 4.2% | 6.6% | 0 |
| 9/29/2017 | -6.3% | 2.8% | 0 |
| 10/27/2017 | -4.5% | 0.4% | 0 |
| Open 12 | -1.2% | 9.2% |
Little better, but still ugly.
Here are the 50 stocks in that portfolio.
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap |
| CPLA | 65.50 | 83.25 | 27.1% | 765 |
| SCMP | 9.68 | 10.70 | 10.5% | 448 |
| BOJA | 12.15 | 12.85 | 5.8% | 448 |
| FOXA | 26.41 | 27.45 | 3.9% | 48,886 |
| CJREF | 9.04 | 9.33 | 3.2% | 1,865 |
| SYNT | 22.82 | 23.55 | 3.2% | 1,909 |
| EGRX | 55.65 | 56.95 | 2.3% | 902 |
| BBY | 55.20 | 56.39 | 2.2% | 16,560 |
| BPT | 18.95 | 19.35 | 2.1% | 406 |
| UTHR | 120.05 | 122.01 | 1.6% | 5,494 |
| PDLI | 3.05 | 3.08 | 1.0% | 470 |
| IDCC | 72.50 | 73.20 | 1.0% | 2,516 |
| AGX | 68.50 | 68.55 | 0.1% | 1,064 |
| CSCO | 34.43 | 34.41 | -0.1% | 171,565 |
| TRNC | 14.72 | 14.62 | -0.7% | 484 |
| FFIV | 121.18 | 120.20 | -0.8% | 7,585 |
| MD | 44.28 | 43.85 | -1.0% | 4,139 |
| JNPR | 25.20 | 24.74 | -1.8% | 9,533 |
| VIAB | 24.66 | 24.18 | -1.9% | 9,923 |
| ABC | 76.38 | 74.86 | -2.0% | 17,184 |
| DLX | 70.19 | 68.74 | -2.1% | 3,394 |
| RCM | 3.89 | 3.80 | -2.3% | 408 |
| KLAC | 108.07 | 105.51 | -2.4% | 16,913 |
| MCFT | 22.97 | 22.42 | -2.4% | 428 |
| ESRX | 62.19 | 60.62 | -2.5% | 35,224 |
| NHTC | 19.08 | 18.59 | -2.6% | 216 |
| OMC | 68.56 | 66.55 | -2.9% | 15,805 |
| IPG | 19.67 | 19.09 | -2.9% | 7,643 |
| VEC | 31.97 | 30.68 | -4.0% | 354 |
| MNKD | 3.37 | 3.23 | -4.2% | 353 |
| LEE | 2.40 | 2.30 | -4.2% | 136 |
| AMCX | 52.55 | 50.05 | -4.8% | 3,389 |
| MSB | 23.30 | 22.15 | -4.9% | 306 |
| SQBG | 2.56 | 2.43 | -5.1% | 162 |
| AVID | 4.46 | 4.23 | -5.2% | 183 |
| GHC | 575.20 | 542.80 | -5.6% | 3,217 |
| MIK | 19.99 | 18.86 | -5.7% | 3,666 |
| TGNA | 12.53 | 11.80 | -5.8% | 2,686 |
| HRB | 26.27 | 24.34 | -7.3% | 5,492 |
| MPAA | 29.07 | 26.83 | -7.7% | 563 |
| GME | 19.34 | 17.83 | -7.8% | 1,959 |
| JILL | 5.58 | 5.08 | -9.0% | 244 |
| TIME | 11.95 | 10.75 | -10.0% | 1,190 |
| DISCA | 19.08 | 17.10 | -10.4% | 11,028 |
| AMAG | 15.35 | 13.50 | -12.1% | 541 |
| MSGN | 19.70 | 17.15 | -12.9% | 1,479 |
| DHX | 2.40 | 2.00 | -16.7% | 121 |
| NLS | 16.05 | 12.65 | -21.2% | 494 |
| CRHM | 2.30 | 1.75 | -23.9% | 170 |
| ICON | 4.91 | 1.48 | -69.9% | 281 |
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3 comments:
didn't get any better today. My MFI Index was down 1.7% as FPRX crashed 40% in a day. They were a classic MFI stock that I felt had no reason to be in the list when you think about Greenblatt's book.
Great analysis, I'm really enjoying following along. Can you cover a little bit about how the market cap correlates to results? My small caps are killing me.
Also, I've tried to start my own Greenblatt blog! Tell me what you think at www.magicformulamoney.com.
Casey
Casey - I will check out your blog today. Regarding small caps, I suggest you read this post (just google MFI Diary Few Thoughts About Big Versus Small):
Few Thoughts About Big Versus Small
This and next two represent my most recent in depth analysis. I encourage people to read closely, it is detailed but some very powerful findings.
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