Monday, November 06, 2017

One Table To Rule Them All

One Table To Rule Them All

I have to say, in all the years I have been blogging, I am not sure I recall a stretch where MFI stocks have been so poor.  As my readers know, I create every month a tracking portfolio of 50 MFI stocks that I "hold" for a year.  So at any given time, I have 12 open tracking portfolios.

Below is a table of the composite results for each of the 12 open MFI tracking portfolios versus the benchmark Russell 3000.  It is not pretty.


Date MFI R3K Lead
11/25/2016 4.4% 18.3% 0
12/30/2016 1.3% 16.8% 0
1/27/2017 0.6% 14.1% 0
2/24/2017 -0.4% 10.5% 0
3/31/2017 -1.4% 10.6% 0
4/28/2017 -5.2% 9.5% 0
5/26/2017 -1.2% 8.2% 0
6/29/2017 -3.6% 7.5% 0
7/28/2017 -2.2% 5.3% 0
8/25/2017 4.2% 6.6% 0
9/29/2017 -6.3% 2.8% 0
10/27/2017 -8.4% 0.4% 0
Open 12 -1.5% 9.2%


So the average MFI portfolio is down 1.5% while the Russell 3000 is up 9.2%.  Just dreadful.  And look how things have fallen off the table.  The portfolio started 10/27/17, not even two weeks ago, is already down 8.4%!  Can that possibly be right?

Oh wait, it is not right.  Here is corrected table:

Date MFI R3K Lead
11/25/2016 4.4% 18.3% 0
12/30/2016 1.3% 16.8% 0
1/27/2017 0.6% 14.1% 0
2/24/2017 -0.4% 10.5% 0
3/31/2017 -1.4% 10.6% 0
4/28/2017 -5.2% 9.5% 0
5/26/2017 -1.2% 8.2% 0
6/29/2017 -3.6% 7.5% 0
7/28/2017 -2.2% 5.3% 0
8/25/2017 4.2% 6.6% 0
9/29/2017 -6.3% 2.8% 0
10/27/2017 -4.5% 0.4% 0
Open 12 -1.2% 9.2%


Little better, but still ugly.

Here are the 50 stocks in that portfolio.


Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap 
CPLA              65.50           83.25 27.1%            765
SCMP                9.68           10.70 10.5%            448
BOJA              12.15           12.85 5.8%            448
FOXA              26.41           27.45 3.9%       48,886
CJREF                9.04             9.33 3.2%         1,865
SYNT              22.82           23.55 3.2%         1,909
EGRX              55.65           56.95 2.3%            902
BBY              55.20           56.39 2.2%       16,560
BPT              18.95           19.35 2.1%            406
UTHR            120.05         122.01 1.6%         5,494
PDLI                3.05             3.08 1.0%            470
IDCC              72.50           73.20 1.0%         2,516
AGX              68.50           68.55 0.1%         1,064
CSCO              34.43           34.41 -0.1%     171,565
TRNC              14.72           14.62 -0.7%            484
FFIV            121.18         120.20 -0.8%         7,585
MD              44.28           43.85 -1.0%         4,139
JNPR              25.20           24.74 -1.8%         9,533
VIAB              24.66           24.18 -1.9%         9,923
ABC              76.38           74.86 -2.0%       17,184
DLX              70.19           68.74 -2.1%         3,394
RCM                3.89             3.80 -2.3%            408
KLAC            108.07         105.51 -2.4%       16,913
MCFT              22.97           22.42 -2.4%            428
ESRX              62.19           60.62 -2.5%       35,224
NHTC              19.08           18.59 -2.6%            216
OMC              68.56           66.55 -2.9%       15,805
IPG              19.67           19.09 -2.9%         7,643
VEC              31.97           30.68 -4.0%            354
MNKD                3.37             3.23 -4.2%            353
LEE                2.40             2.30 -4.2%            136
AMCX              52.55           50.05 -4.8%         3,389
MSB              23.30           22.15 -4.9%            306
SQBG                2.56             2.43 -5.1%            162
AVID                4.46             4.23 -5.2%            183
GHC            575.20         542.80 -5.6%         3,217
MIK              19.99           18.86 -5.7%         3,666
TGNA              12.53           11.80 -5.8%         2,686
HRB              26.27           24.34 -7.3%         5,492
MPAA              29.07           26.83 -7.7%            563
GME              19.34           17.83 -7.8%         1,959
JILL                5.58             5.08 -9.0%            244
TIME              11.95           10.75 -10.0%         1,190
DISCA              19.08           17.10 -10.4%       11,028
AMAG              15.35           13.50 -12.1%            541
MSGN              19.70           17.15 -12.9%         1,479
DHX                2.40             2.00 -16.7%            121
NLS              16.05           12.65 -21.2%            494
CRHM                2.30             1.75 -23.9%            170
ICON                4.91             1.48 -69.9%            281




3 comments:

Marsh_Gerda said...

didn't get any better today. My MFI Index was down 1.7% as FPRX crashed 40% in a day. They were a classic MFI stock that I felt had no reason to be in the list when you think about Greenblatt's book.

Casey Clarke said...

Great analysis, I'm really enjoying following along. Can you cover a little bit about how the market cap correlates to results? My small caps are killing me.

Also, I've tried to start my own Greenblatt blog! Tell me what you think at www.magicformulamoney.com.

Casey

Marsh_Gerda said...

Casey - I will check out your blog today. Regarding small caps, I suggest you read this post (just google MFI Diary Few Thoughts About Big Versus Small):

Few Thoughts About Big Versus Small



This and next two represent my most recent in depth analysis. I encourage people to read closely, it is detailed but some very powerful findings.