Sunday, November 12, 2017

Last Dance

Last Dance For November 2016 Tranche

C'mon, we all have a little guilty pleasure in classic disco.  I admit it, I still listen to Donna Summer or the Bee Gees from time to time. You can always feel the beat.

And speaking of beats, how about my November 2016 MFI Select tranche.  It looks like it will be fabulous.  I went back in time to see what I said when I bought the five stocks (11/15/16 MFI tranche).  Hmm, doesn't look like I said much, but I did defend the ATHM purchase and that turned out to be pretty prophetic.

So here is the tranche as I head into final week:

11/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MPAA  $26.55 $25.50 $0.00 -4.0% 20.5%
 ATHM  $22.61 $61.50 $0.00 172.0% 20.5%
 AMGN  $145.14 $172.35 $3.15 20.9% 20.5%
 RHI  $43.23 $52.90 $0.94 24.5% 20.5%
 CA  $31.11 $32.45 $0.77 6.8% 20.5%
 Totals  44.1% 20.5%

Wow, ATHM up 172%.  That is 3rd best for me going back to 2012 reboot (interestingly the other two also had strong Chinese ties, NHTC and NUS - also both MLMs, which I would now likely avoid).  MPAA was a disappointment, these boring auto parts companies just make money... who wants that?

New Stocks

I am scouring the world for ideas for the 5 replacement stocks.  Not a whole lot of "good values" out there right now.

Pharmas:  I am tempted to go with AMGN, BIIB or CELG for the upcoming year.  This is a bit of a hated space right now.  Could be an opportunity.

Content/Broadcast Companies: With the leaking of Disney thinking about buying part of Fox, I do wonder if this area is ready for some consolidation.  This are many hated names: VIAB, FOXA, AMCX, DISCA, MSGN or EVC.

Chinese: With my great success on ATHM and YY, it is tempting to still have a name in this space. NTES looks pretty interesting.  They report earnings 11/15, So I am not sure whether I should buy before or wait. YRD still looks cheap by my metrics, but I am worried about anything to do with lending.

Technology: I have had pretty good success with tech companies.  KLAC still looks reasonable.  OCHR is a bit beaten down. I could add a second tranche of SIMO. CSCO is always safeish.

Others: I like AGX as I think more NG plants will be built due to clean and inexpensive. I still like consulting like SYNT. HRB is beaten down due to fear of postcard tax return (seems unlikely). DLX just makes money, dull but hey it isn't easy right now.

I may stay away from retail - I get chances at BBY, GME and BKE through my Formula approach. Not sure I want to double down.

Hmmm - I think I will be able to cobble something together from these names.  Stay tuned.

1 comment:

Casey Clarke said...

I'm really enjoying these posts. I like the way you break down "tranches" and the tables are easy to read. I don't know if you've looked at what I'm working on at but I've modeled some of my tables after yours because I like the simplicity. I hope we can collaborate and share posts or thoughts with each other. Your site is what I hope for mine to be.