Another week in the books. My portfolio slipped downwards another 3% or so. It is just the direction of the markets. I'm now down 3.4% on the year. The Russell 3000 is down 5%. It is a slog. I have been well-behaved, no transactions again this week. But stocks going down are stocks going down. I like my portfolio, no second guessing right now. I have quite a bit of cashola. So at end of the day, assuming stocks eventually get back to this level before I need to sell - things should be ok.
I did have a disaster with VNCE. It was down a stunning 43% on Friday. That is like the market doesn't think they'll open their doors in 2016. It seems mildly overdone. Thankfully, my 5 micro MFI stocks are relatively small positions, so I actually beat the market on Friday... only down 1.5%. Woo-hoo! Oops, the market was down 1.43%, reverse. Ooh-oow!
MFI Select
This portfolio is essentially flat for the year (up 3 basis points). I guess that is "good" against the MFI index being down 7.7% and GARIX is now down 10%. Like I said, it is a slog.
| 11/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FLR | $64.80 | $43.66 | $0.63 | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $79.13 | $0.00 | 105.8% | -3.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $43.34 | $1.06 | -38.6% | -3.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $24.11 | $0.06 | 98.3% | -3.7% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.23 | $0.00 | -26.6% | -3.7% |
| Totals | 21.5% | -3.7% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $23.36 | $0.00 | -16.6% | -2.4% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $54.29 | $0.90 | -12.0% | -2.4% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $43.34 | $0.73 | -31.0% | -2.4% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $13.01 | $0.00 | -40.9% | -2.4% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $24.11 | $0.05 | 94.2% | -2.4% |
| Totals | -1.3% | -2.4% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $43.09 | $0.07 | -14.3% | -7.2% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.71 | $0.00 | -10.0% | -7.2% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $33.20 | $0.40 | -13.7% | -7.2% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $43.94 | $0.00 | -29.4% | -7.2% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $26.66 | $0.00 | 13.4% | -7.2% |
| Totals | -10.8% | -7.2% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $15.28 | $0.00 | -18.1% | -7.8% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.13 | $0.00 | -2.2% | -7.8% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $25.52 | $0.00 | -11.8% | -7.8% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $22.93 | $0.00 | -9.4% | -7.8% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $20.19 | $0.00 | 0.2% | -7.8% |
| Totals | -8.3% | -7.8% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -8.3% | 21.5% | -1.3% | -10.8% | 0.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 64.5% | 99.4% | 90.9% | 40.3% | 73.8% |
| Current Balance | 41,129 | 49,839 | 47,714 | 35,078 | 173,760 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -7.8% | -3.7% | -2.4% | -7.2% | -5.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 46.3% | 50.7% | 33.5% | 24.5% | 38.7% |
| R3K Balance | 36,575 | 37,670 | 33,380 | 31,122 | 138,747 |
| Annualized IRR | 17.6% | 27.8% | 28.2% | 15.6% | 22.7% |
You can see that the two most recent tranches are not exactly high fliers, down 10.% and 8.3%. I think they both still have some fight left in them. But stocks in the green are as rare as a four leaf clover right now.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
|
9/1/2015
|
37.10% | 180,645 | 143,545 |
| Current | 35.01% | 173,760 | 138,747 |
Again, you can see in September that I have fallen a bit faster than the index.
MFI Formula
This portfolio has now squeezed into the red, ever so slightly for 2015. Down 14 basis points. Keep a close eye on the 10/1 tranche. It only has three weeks to go:
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.67 | $0.37 | 15.0% | -0.1% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $40.21 | $3.68 | -3.6% | -0.1% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.07 | $1.00 | 0.7% | -0.1% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.25 | $1.41 | 2.3% | -0.1% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $45.24 | $1.40 | 4.7% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 3.8% | -0.1% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $27.07 | $0.75 | -9.7% | -6.1% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $25.52 | $0.61 | -7.9% | -6.1% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $60.84 | $0.85 | 77.2% | -6.1% |
| GME | $34.21 | $41.25 | $1.08 | 23.7% | -6.1% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $18.86 | $0.45 | -2.8% | -6.1% |
| Totals | 16.1% | -6.1% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $35.30 | $0.20 | 11.0% | -7.3% |
| GME | $37.69 | $41.25 | $0.72 | 11.4% | -7.3% |
| KING | $15.85 | $13.69 | $0.00 | -13.6% | -7.3% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.78 | $0.04 | -17.8% | -7.3% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $20.54 | $0.00 | -9.3% | -7.3% |
| Totals | -3.7% | -7.3% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $40.21 | $0.23 | -12.9% | -7.3% |
| CA | $29.34 | $27.07 | $0.25 | -6.9% | -7.3% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $42.61 | $0.31 | -3.4% | -7.3% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $54.29 | $0.00 | -13.8% | -7.3% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $43.34 | $0.00 | -33.1% | -7.3% |
| Totals | -14.0% | -7.3% |
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.04% | 101,958 | 97,918 |
| Current | 5.73% | 100,520 | 94,786 |
You can see in September, that I've lost about a point, but gained on the index. My tranche from a year ago looks likely to be a "success", though in today's markets, who knows?
Micro MFI
The VNCE debacle didn't help. Here is the table. No need to say any more except thank God I have a year to bounce back.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $5.24 | $0.00 | -38.4% | -3.1% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $1.98 | $0.00 | -0.5% | -3.1% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $10.99 | $0.00 | -5.3% | -3.1% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $7.54 | $0.00 | 3.9% | -3.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.38 | $0.00 | -2.9% | -3.1% |
| Totals | -8.6% | -3.1% |
My Dividend Stocks and Warrants
I will start just listing these holdings for full disclosure.
| D&W | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $6.09 | $6.43 | $0.00 | 5.6% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.82 | $1.47 | 14.8% |
| FSC | $7.06 | $6.46 | $0.35 | -3.6% |
| CSQ | $9.30 | $9.74 | $2.01 | 26.3% |
| SJT | $11.07 | $10.21 | $0.08 | -7.0% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.33 | $1.04 | 11.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.81 | $1.03 | 5.9% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $37.29 | $0.00 | 75.6% |
| O | $22.32 | $43.38 | $17.15 | 171.2% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.68 | $2.10 | 54.5% |
| Totals | 14.0% |
And the dividend component is yielding 7.62%.
MFI Index
As I mentioned, MFI in aggregate is really struggling. Here are 50 stocks in my index in descending order:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | 52 week low | Mkt Cap |
| NHTC | 11.45 | 24.11 | 110.6% | 7.61 | 145 |
| RGR | 34.12 | 60.84 | 78.3% | 33.60 | 667 |
| DEPO | 16.11 | 26.66 | 65.5% | 13.55 | 927 |
| EBIX | 16.86 | 27.67 | 64.1% | 12.64 | 633 |
| USNA | 102.59 | 137.93 | 34.4% | 69.76 | 1,278 |
| AFOP | 14.51 | 19.04 | 31.2% | 10.75 | 276 |
| LCI | 42.88 | 54.36 | 26.8% | 37.63 | 1,552 |
| GME | 32.93 | 41.25 | 25.3% | 31.69 | 3,698 |
| UBNT | 29.64 | 36.04 | 21.6% | 25.50 | 2,639 |
| PETS | 13.91 | 16.47 | 18.4% | 12.07 | 294 |
| AGX | 33.64 | 39.31 | 16.9% | 28.62 | 496 |
| ITRN | 21.57 | 23.80 | 10.3% | 19.53 | 463 |
| ADMS | 17.37 | 19.00 | 9.4% | 13.60 | 290 |
| NUS | 42.77 | 45.24 | 5.8% | 38.00 | 2,626 |
| TTWO | 28.03 | 28.45 | 1.5% | 20.13 | 3,262 |
| IQNT | 19.16 | 18.86 | -1.6% | 12.14 | 642 |
| SPOK | 16.98 | 16.47 | -3.0% | 12.93 | 375 |
| RPXC | 13.78 | 13.31 | -3.4% | 11.94 | 789 |
| DLX | 61.38 | 59.12 | -3.7% | 51.46 | 3,122 |
| BCOR | 13.85 | 13.26 | -4.3% | 12.61 | 568 |
| KING | 14.45 | 13.69 | -5.2% | 10.68 | 5,040 |
| IILG | 20.58 | 19.35 | -6.0% | 18.83 | 1,173 |
| CSCO | 27.21 | 25.52 | -6.2% | 22.49 | 143,672 |
| LQDT | 8.17 | 7.54 | -7.7% | 7.02 | 245 |
| IDCC | 52.30 | 48.25 | -7.7% | 38.64 | 2,066 |
| NSR | 27.80 | 25.57 | -8.0% | 20.32 | 1,790 |
| CA | 29.69 | 27.07 | -8.8% | 25.16 | 13,558 |
| ANIK | 40.74 | 36.04 | -11.5% | 31.36 | 594 |
| VEC | 27.40 | 23.36 | -14.7% | 19.22 | 283 |
| PBI | 23.76 | 19.40 | -18.4% | 18.59 | 4,960 |
| BKE | 49.48 | 40.21 | -18.7% | 39.72 | 2,583 |
| COH | 36.49 | 29.16 | -20.1% | 27.62 | 10,434 |
| MSB | 16.60 | 13.01 | -21.6% | 9.08 | 228 |
| FLR | 59.91 | 43.66 | -27.1% | 41.88 | 9,544 |
| PDLI | 7.17 | 5.18 | -27.8% | 4.58 | 1,287 |
| AWRE | 4.54 | 3.23 | -28.9% | 2.82 | 105 |
| GORO | 3.29 | 2.34 | -28.9% | 1.99 | 184 |
| TZOO | 12.62 | 8.86 | -29.8% | 8.30 | 188 |
| STRA | 74.28 | 51.45 | -30.7% | 41.50 | 812 |
| WILN | 2.89 | 1.97 | -31.9% | 1.79 | 355 |
| TDC | 43.68 | 28.42 | -34.9% | 27.70 | 6,839 |
| AVID | 14.21 | 8.54 | -39.9% | 7.60 | 562 |
| VIAB | 74.45 | 43.34 | -41.8% | 36.32 | 31,641 |
| LFVN | 1.30 | 0.73 | -43.8% | 0.20 | 132 |
| TPUB | 22.45 | 10.99 | -51.0% | 9.85 | 582 |
| ONE | 4.21 | 1.98 | -53.0% | 1.85 | 204 |
| UIS | 29.48 | 13.01 | -55.9% | 12.13 | 1,480 |
| PFMT | 6.65 | 2.76 | -58.5% | 2.33 | 331 |
| APOL | 34.11 | 10.90 | -68.0% | 10.20 | 3,725 |
| WTW | 24.84 | 6.15 | -75.2% | 3.67 | 1,437 |
Down in total over 7% on the year. And it has just gotten worse for portfolios starting later in 2015.
| 2/27/2015 | -13.2% |
| 3/27/2015 | -11.5% |
| 4/24/2015 | -14.9% |
| 5/29/2015 | -11.5% |
| 6/26/2015 | -11.8% |
| 7/30/2015 | -7.7% |
As I said, it is a slog right now. Have a great week everyone.
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1 comment:
I would suspect everyone else is suffering too. My MFI portfolio has turned to a negative return for the year over the past month. At the end of July my IRR was 8%, now it is at -1.5%. You mentioned GARIX, I would think with it's short component it should have been more 'stable' than the market with less of a loss. Time will tell - it's just hard to stay the course.
regards,
j
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