Today seems like the day we shift from Summer to Fall. The ten day forecast shows no days in the 80s and every night it'll be in the 40s. I love this time of year. Air conditioning off (though we never have it on on the first floor) and windows open.
I am happy that my Hoosiers won yesterday and have started the season 3-0. It is a team that should improve over the season. Defensively, we have only one senior and 2 Juniors. The other 20 players are sophomores and freshman. Hopefully they'll improve with real game experience. Offensively, I suspect we'll be able to move against anybody. Very balanced attack with a solid O line. Then my Cowboys play in Philly today.I'm stunned that we're 5 point underdogs! 12-4 last year, 10 game regular season winning streak on the road. Beat the Eagles 5 of last 6 and we're 5 point underdogs? We'll see, seems like no respect.
MFI Select
Last week was not a particularly good week. After breaking into the green for the year, I am now back in the red overall. But MFI select continues to be a bright spot, largely due to NHTC. It is up almost 8% on the year. Which is an accomplishment in these headwinds.
| 11/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FLR | $64.80 | $43.29 | $0.84 | -31.9% | -1.7% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $79.05 | $0.00 | 105.6% | -1.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $45.68 | $1.46 | -34.8% | -1.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $31.83 | $0.06 | 161.6% | -1.7% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $2.92 | $0.00 | -33.6% | -1.7% |
| Totals | 33.4% | -1.7% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $23.41 | $0.00 | -16.4% | -0.4% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $54.45 | $1.38 | -11.0% | -0.4% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $45.68 | $1.13 | -26.8% | -0.4% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $13.06 | $0.00 | -40.7% | -0.4% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $31.83 | $0.05 | 156.3% | -0.4% |
| Totals | 12.3% | -0.4% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $42.60 | $0.07 | -15.3% | -5.3% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.87 | $0.00 | -6.2% | -5.3% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $35.04 | $0.40 | -9.0% | -5.3% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $43.11 | $0.00 | -30.7% | -5.3% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $28.80 | $0.00 | 22.6% | -5.3% |
| Totals | -7.7% | -5.3% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $18.63 | $0.00 | -0.2% | -5.9% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.02 | $0.00 | -3.4% | -5.9% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $25.54 | $0.00 | -11.8% | -5.9% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $23.22 | $0.14 | -7.7% | -5.9% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $19.16 | $0.00 | -4.9% | -5.9% |
| Totals | -5.6% | -5.9% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -5.6% | 33.4% | 12.3% | -7.7% | 8.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 69.3% | 118.9% | 117.1% | 45.2% | 87.6% |
| Current Balance | 42,333 | 54,733 | 54,265 | 36,289 | 187,620 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -5.9% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -5.3% | -3.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 49.3% | 53.8% | 36.3% | 27.1% | 41.6% |
| R3K Balance | 37,335 | 38,442 | 34,066 | 31,765 | 141,608 |
| Annualized IRR | 18.5% | 31.7% | 34.2% | 17.0% | 25.9% |
So you can see that 3 of my 4 tranches are winning, albeit August is a very slim margin. But even the May tranche has crawled back (and R3K has fallen) to make it interesting.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| Current | 46.01% | 187,620 | 141,608 |
So with this "spurt", we've stretched our lead to 46 percentage points. The widest spread in some time. So the method is working.
MFI Formula
With no NHTC up 160%, it is more of a slog here. But am also winning 3 of 4 tranches and up 1% on the year. The 9/30 tranche just has 10 days to go. It'll be tight on who wins.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $27.71 | $0.50 | 19.9% | 2.0% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $38.21 | $3.68 | -8.0% | 2.0% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.57 | $1.00 | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| GME | $41.70 | $42.27 | $1.41 | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.66 | $1.40 | -3.4% | 2.0% |
| Totals | 3.2% | 2.0% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $27.57 | $0.75 | -8.1% | -4.2% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $25.54 | $0.61 | -7.8% | -4.2% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $58.65 | $0.85 | 70.9% | -4.2% |
| GME | $34.21 | $42.27 | $1.08 | 26.7% | -4.2% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $21.70 | $0.45 | 11.5% | -4.2% |
| Totals | 18.6% | -4.2% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $35.50 | $0.40 | 12.2% | -5.4% |
| GME | $37.69 | $42.27 | $0.72 | 14.1% | -5.4% |
| KING | $15.85 | $13.93 | $0.00 | -12.1% | -5.4% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.93 | $0.04 | -13.4% | -5.4% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $20.99 | $0.00 | -7.3% | -5.4% |
| Totals | -1.3% | -5.4% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $38.21 | $0.23 | -17.2% | -5.3% |
| CA | $29.34 | $27.57 | $0.25 | -5.2% | -5.3% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $43.48 | $0.31 | -1.4% | -5.3% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $54.45 | $0.48 | -12.7% | -5.3% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $45.68 | $0.40 | -28.8% | -5.3% |
| Totals | -13.1% | -5.3% |
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 3.2% | 18.6% | -1.3% | -13.1% | 1.8% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 3.2% | 18.6% | -1.3% | -13.1% | 1.8% |
| Current Balance | 257,691 | 296,514 | 246,893 | 217,055 | 1,018,154 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 2.0% | -4.2% | -5.4% | -5.3% | -3.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 2.0% | -4.2% | -5.4% | -5.3% | -3.2% |
| R3K Balance | 254,790 | 239,517 | 236,711 | 236,377 | 967,395 |
| Annualized IRR | 3.2% | 26.7% | -2.7% | -46.3% | 3.1% |
That 3.1% annualized IRR is pretty telling of where the markets have been of late. Does not compare with the 26% from the select approach. But early days. On a relative basis, up by 5 points almost a year after starting this approach.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| Current | 5.08% | 101,815 | 96,739 |
We'll see in a couple weeks what the 5 new stocks Mr Random picks for me.
MFI Micro
This is my newest tranche started when I swore off the trading component of my portfolio (happy to announce that I still have bought nothing since I stepped away). It got off to a terrible start when VNCE dropped 40% the first week after I bought it.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $4.50 | $0.00 | -47.1% | -1.1% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $2.20 | $0.00 | 10.6% | -1.1% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $10.59 | $0.00 | -8.7% | -1.1% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $7.29 | $0.00 | 0.4% | -1.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.39 | $0.00 | -2.4% | -1.1% |
| Totals | -9.4% | -1.1% |
Other Musings
My MFI index is down almost 5% for the year (R3K is off 3%). I do worry that things will get worse before they get better.
D&W Portfolio
Oh, also here is an update on my dividend and warrant portfolio. The warrants are struggling as financial stocks certainly took a hit with the Fed announcement this week. I may add to BAC warrants if falls well under $6.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $6.09 | $6.06 | $0.00 | -0.5% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.93 | $1.46 | 16.1% |
| FSC | $7.06 | $6.51 | $0.41 | -2.0% |
| CSQ | $9.30 | $9.75 | $2.07 | 27.0% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.29 | $1.09 | 11.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.91 | $1.03 | 6.8% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $37.25 | $0.00 | 75.4% |
| O | $22.41 | $47.49 | $17.26 | 188.9% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.67 | $2.11 | 54.5% |
| Totals | 17.1% |
Again, for the dividend component here, I am not that concerned with Pct gain. Rather I am interested in income. And with my multiplier, these 7 stocks are producing over $50,000 a year ($90,000 with MFI stock dividends). And all of the dividends from my dividend stocks are being reinvesting - which brings in the power of compounding. Check out the table of AOD dividends:
| Date Purchased | Stock | Shares | Purchase Price | Current Price | Cost |
| 02/14/13 | AOD | 34 | $7.93 | $7.93 | 270 |
| 03/18/13 | AOD | 43 | $8.11 | $7.93 | 350 |
| 04/29/13 | AOD | 43 | $8.21 | $7.93 | 352 |
| 05/31/13 | AOD | 42 | $8.51 | $7.93 | 355 |
| 06/28/13 | AOD | 55 | $7.63 | $7.93 | 421 |
| 07/19/13 | AOD | 63 | $8.07 | $7.93 | 505 |
| 09/19/13 | AOD | 65 | $7.86 | $7.93 | 508 |
| 09/30/13 | AOD | 63 | $8.06 | $7.93 | 508 |
| 10/31/13 | AOD | 68 | $8.36 | $7.93 | 565 |
| 11/29/13 | AOD | 69 | $8.13 | $7.93 | 563 |
| 12/30/13 | AOD | 68 | $8.38 | $7.93 | 572 |
| 01/30/14 | AOD | 74 | $8.17 | $7.93 | 603 |
| 02/28/14 | AOD | 73 | $8.36 | $7.93 | 607 |
| 03/31/14 | AOD | 94 | $8.34 | $7.93 | 781 |
| 04/30/14 | AOD | 93 | $8.42 | $7.93 | 786 |
| 05/30/14 | AOD | 91 | $8.67 | $7.93 | 791 |
| 06/27/14 | AOD | 90 | $8.89 | $7.93 | 796 |
| 07/30/14 | AOD | 90 | $8.86 | $7.93 | 801 |
| 08/29/14 | AOD | 91 | $8.89 | $7.93 | 807 |
| 09/30/14 | AOD | 94 | $8.61 | $7.93 | 812 |
| 10/30/14 | AOD | 97 | $8.46 | $7.93 | 817 |
| 11/28/14 | AOD | 94 | $8.71 | $7.93 | 822 |
| 12/31/14 | AOD | 96 | $8.64 | $7.93 | 828 |
| 01/30/15 | AOD | 97 | $8.62 | $7.93 | 833 |
| 02/27/15 | AOD | 95 | $8.84 | $7.93 | 839 |
| 03/31/15 | AOD | 96 | $8.83 | $7.93 | 844 |
| 04/30/15 | AOD | 94 | $9.07 | $7.93 | 849 |
| 05/29/15 | AOD | 97 | $9.01 | $7.93 | 870 |
| 06/30/15 | AOD | 99 | $8.85 | $7.93 | 875 |
| 07/31/15 | AOD | 103 | $8.53 | $7.93 | 881 |
| 08/31/15 | AOD | 113 | $7.83 | $7.93 | 887 |
Now if you focus on 3/31/14 and forward, I have not put any additional capital into AOD. But back then, my dividend was $781 (far right column) and now it is $887 - just from the compounding effect. And while psychologically, I hate that the price has dropped from $8.89 a year ago to $7.93 now, you can see that the impact is that I am now buying many more shares. So 90 per month a year ago and now 113 in August. As long as the stock itself is not broken, the lowered stock price is a windfall. Yee-hah!
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