Wednesday, September 02, 2015

How Low Can We Go?

another bloodbath day. While I can take some consolation that my Select portfolio is only down 2%, my Formula portfolio is down 2.9% and my new micro is down 2.9% against a tape that is down over  3%, it is hard to get too excited.

I know (deep down) that it is ok. I like my picks. Reinvested dividends are getting more shares for the same outlay.  But still, I am now down over 3% on the year. Hard to break out the party favors when that happens.

You, gentle reader, will be proud of me. I have stepped away from the batter and done absolutely nothing.  I did look at the Tarp Warrant stocks, as I have often thought about a third name alongside my HIG and BAC warrants (perhaps PNC or COF), but have stayed the course. If this turns into a total rout and I can buy more BAC warrants around $5.50, I will do so.  I have been adding on dips for several years.

I also looked at (gasp) energy names.  I put together a table of eleven names and listed their current price, their market cap, their debt and projected 2016 EPS.  Based upon that, it struck me that there are a couple that might be worth considering and there are a bunch that seem likely candidates to implode like some of the recent names in the coal space.

Names that were worth looking at further included TOT, OXY and EOG.  I didn't like APC, CHK, CRC and MRO.  But for me, this is really just an exercise of thinking. I am not a buyer.

I do worry about banks. Especially those that may be overweight lending to energy companies. When I look at the debt load and futur cash flows of some of the smaller players (CHK and CRC are great examples), I am unsure how sustainable they are should prices remain depressed for another year+.  I got a little upset, in Yahoo or something, there was an article stating that the banks will have some defaults. And to the common man/woman out there, that is like blood in the water. They live to see banks get hit.  But, their is a circle of life out there. And if banks struggle, then credit tightens for everyone - even those jeering the banks.  Don't get me wrong, I do think banks have done some slimey things and likely continue to do so. But I'd prefer for the consuming public to just vote with our wallets (by doing business with banks that are forthright) than to cheer on the demise of a big bank.

Enough for now.


Karl Nelson said...

Last paragraph very well said.
Karl N

Corpraider said...

Maybe upgrade to some WFC-WT if it gets cray cray.