Another week flies by. For the record, I am now down 3.2% for the year. With my doing zero trading now for a month, there is really little reason for me to even be watching the markets. What will I do with that free time? First a little football talk. My Hoosiers have a very rare event right now. We are on the road. We are playing a Division 1 school. And we are favored. Whoa. I can't remember last time that happened. We're 3-0 and playing at Wake Forest, who must be pretty bad. Of course this ensures that we'll lose. Then the Cowboys host the Falcons sans Tony Romo. Last season, the one start without Romo was exceedingly painful to watch as the Cardinals stacked the line and dared Weeden to pass.
MFI Select
This portfolio pulled back significantly during the week (about 3 points) and is now up 4.6% on the year. Some stocks, like DEPO got absolutely crushed during the week as Candidate Clinton bashed the high prices charged by Biotechs. I try not to let politics get in this blog too much, but I suspect that creating new drugs is a highly risky and expensive process. And if you take away the profit incentive, I suspect that many fewer drugs will be developed - especially for areas that do not have millions of patients. Would that be a good outcome?
| 11/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FLR | $64.80 | $42.14 | $0.84 | -33.7% | -3.8% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $79.20 | $0.00 | 106.0% | -3.8% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $43.52 | $1.46 | -37.8% | -3.8% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $31.00 | $0.06 | 154.8% | -3.8% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.36 | $0.00 | -23.6% | -3.8% |
| Totals | 33.1% | -3.8% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $22.05 | $0.00 | -21.3% | -2.5% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $53.22 | $1.38 | -13.0% | -2.5% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $43.52 | $1.13 | -30.1% | -2.5% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $13.11 | $0.00 | -40.5% | -2.5% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $31.00 | $0.05 | 149.6% | -2.5% |
| Totals | 9.0% | -2.5% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $40.84 | $0.07 | -18.8% | -7.3% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.51 | $0.00 | -14.9% | -7.3% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $32.96 | $0.40 | -14.3% | -7.3% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $42.40 | $0.00 | -31.9% | -7.3% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $22.76 | $0.00 | -3.1% | -7.3% |
| Totals | -16.6% | -7.3% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $18.05 | $0.00 | -3.3% | -7.9% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $8.33 | $0.00 | -10.8% | -7.9% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $26.03 | $0.00 | -10.1% | -7.9% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $22.80 | $0.14 | -9.3% | -7.9% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $19.78 | $0.00 | -1.8% | -7.9% |
| Totals | -7.1% | -7.9% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -7.1% | 33.1% | 9.0% | -16.6% | 4.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 16.4% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 66.7% | 118.5% | 110.6% | 31.2% | 81.8% |
| Current Balance | 41,669 | 54,636 | 52,656 | 32,796 | 181,758 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -7.9% | -3.8% | -2.5% | -7.3% | -5.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 46.2% | 50.6% | 33.4% | 24.4% | 38.6% |
| R3K Balance | 36,543 | 37,638 | 33,351 | 31,095 | 138,627 |
| Annualized IRR | 17.8% | 31.4% | 32.5% | 12.0% | 24.2% |
Wow, it is hard to believe DEPO is -3.1% now. They were up 35% just a few weeks ago. It is just a struggle everywhere right now. That being said, three of my four tranches are beating the Russell 3000 benchmark. But 17 of my 20 picks are in the red, only IPCM and my two NHTC picks are making money. Not much breadth.
If we look at my MFI Index, it is down 8% on the year. Only 15 of the 50 stocks are up (better than me).
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| Current | 43.13% | 181,758 | 138,627 |
MFI Formula
Just 3 trading days left on my 10/1/14 tranche. It is going to be close. The portfolio is up 3.14% so far this year (where do I know that number from?).
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $27.17 | $0.50 | 17.6% | -0.1% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $37.44 | $3.68 | -9.7% | -0.1% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.36 | $1.00 | 1.7% | -0.1% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.00 | $1.41 | 1.7% | -0.1% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.21 | $1.40 | -4.4% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 1.4% | -0.1% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $27.36 | $0.75 | -8.8% | -6.2% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $26.03 | $0.61 | -6.1% | -6.2% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $59.70 | $0.85 | 73.9% | -6.2% |
| GME | $34.21 | $41.00 | $1.08 | 23.0% | -6.2% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $22.54 | $0.45 | 15.7% | -6.2% |
| Totals | 19.5% | -6.2% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $36.05 | $0.40 | 13.9% | -7.4% |
| GME | $37.69 | $41.00 | $0.72 | 10.7% | -7.4% |
| KING | $15.85 | $13.40 | $0.00 | -15.5% | -7.4% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.92 | $0.04 | -13.7% | -7.4% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $21.03 | $0.00 | -7.2% | -7.4% |
| Totals | -2.3% | -7.4% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $37.44 | $0.23 | -18.9% | -7.3% |
| CA | $29.34 | $27.36 | $0.25 | -5.9% | -7.3% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $43.94 | $0.31 | -0.4% | -7.3% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $53.22 | $0.48 | -14.7% | -7.3% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $43.52 | $0.40 | -32.2% | -7.3% |
| Totals | -14.4% | -7.3% |
Again, three of four tranches are winning. This time, 8 of 20 are in the green - kind of indicating why the formula approach may be superior. Hopefully the first one holds on the final three days.
MFI Micro
Why did I think this was a good idea? Well, at least I went small in dollars as well - but it has been a page from Tom Petty's Free Falling. First it was VNCE. Now TPUB. I will hold for a year, but it may be a one and done. The concept was that these stocks would not be as linked to global issues (such as Chinese struggles), but they seem to be finding their own issues.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $3.82 | $0.00 | -55.1% | -3.2% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $2.00 | $0.00 | 0.5% | -3.2% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $8.15 | $0.00 | -29.7% | -3.2% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $7.53 | $0.00 | 3.7% | -3.2% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.17 | $0.00 | -11.4% | -3.2% |
| Totals | -18.4% | -3.2% |
I am not giving up, it has only been a month and I suspect these are volatile stocks. One 100% gainer would help (hint, hint).
Dividends and Warrants
Slow and steady with these guys.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $6.09 | $5.95 | $0.00 | -2.3% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.75 | $1.52 | 14.5% |
| FSC | $7.06 | $6.60 | $0.41 | -0.7% |
| CSQ | $9.30 | $9.57 | $2.07 | 25.1% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.34 | $1.09 | 11.5% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.76 | $1.03 | 5.4% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $38.05 | $0.00 | 79.2% |
| O | $22.41 | $47.06 | $17.26 | 187.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.63 | $2.11 | 53.7% |
| Totals | 16.4% |
Down about 70 basis points during the week. But it was a bumpy week with IWV down 2.1%. The good news is I continue to collect and reinvest dividends.
I will post a second time this weekend as my September 2014 tracking portfolio hit it's anniversary. Stay tuned.
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