Saturday, December 13, 2014

Weekend Update - The Carnage Continues

Weekend Update

Another week, another bad week.  My only thing to make me feel better is that it was a bad week for everything.  This is a stunning number but I am now down 12.7% on the year in my trading account.  Then I am down almost 25% since the end of August. But I am not panicking (though admittedly sweating a bit).  I am ok with my holdings. I am still getting a solid income stream. I have almost a record amount of cash on the sideline, so at some point I will be buying some stocks much more cheaply.  I have been good about stepping away from the batter, no transactions this week. But that didn't do much to staunch the bleeding.

This week even my MFI portfolios were under duress. It is just plain across the board. The Bears are out in full swing and may remain out for a while. My MFI Sewlect portfolio is now up 6.8% on the year, still a lot better than other stuff - but down 4.4% since turkey day.

MFI Select

CBI has really crashed and burned.  Obviously as a builder heavily involved in energy industry, there is plenty of concern about viability of major energy projects right now.

2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $19.90 $0.20 17.3% 12.6%
KLAC $61.47 $68.63 $18.40 41.6% 12.6%
RPXC $16.22 $13.01 $0.00 -19.8% 12.6%
SNDK $69.55 $98.79 $0.83 43.2% 12.6%
WNR $39.11 $37.02 $3.04 2.4% 12.6%
Totals 17.0% 12.6%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.11 $0.00 -2.4% 7.1%
CA $29.54 $29.86 $0.75 3.6% 7.1%
CSCO $22.79 $26.86 $0.38 19.5% 7.1%
NSR $25.82 $25.85 $0.00 0.1% 7.1%
RCII $28.78 $31.30 $0.46 10.4% 7.1%
Totals 6.3% 7.1%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $26.86 $0.19 10.8% 2.5%
AGX $36.71 $30.47 $0.70 -15.1% 2.5%
ITRN $21.32 $21.74 $0.19 2.8% 2.5%
BRCD $9.34 $11.09 $0.04 19.2% 2.5%
CBI $58.25 $39.14 $0.07 -32.7% 2.5%
Totals -3.0% 2.5%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $56.88 $0.21 -11.9% -1.7%
IPCM $38.45 $43.63 $0.00 13.5% -1.7%
VIAB $72.29 $72.96 $0.33 1.4% -1.7%
NHTC $12.19 $12.14 $0.01 -0.3% -1.7%
AWRE $4.40 $4.87 $0.00 10.7% -1.7%
Totals 2.7% -1.7%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche -3.0% 2.7% 17.0% 6.3% 5.7%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 39.5%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7%            -               -   14.5%
MFI Overall Gain 56.5% 68.5% 108.5% 41.3% 68.7%
Current Balance      39,122       42,129     52,120      35,334    168,705
R3K Current Tranche 2.5% -1.7% 12.6% 7.1% 5.1%
R3K Overall Gain 49.5% 53.8% 36.3% 27.3% 41.7%
R3K Balance      37,382       38,454     34,079      31,824    141,738
Annualized IRR 21.2% 28.6% 48.3% 24.0% 30.4%

You can see that the August tranche is struggling.  They have two construction names (CBI and AGX), while November has FLR.  All three stocks are under duress. Still time to recover, but the wind is in our face.

MFI Formula

These five stocks had been pretty solid, but GME has really hit a tailspin and every time NUS has news (nus?) it is negative.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $25.52 $0.11 9.0% 2.0%
BKE $45.55 $49.99 $0.22 10.2% 2.0%
CA $27.87 $29.86 $0.25 8.0% 2.0%
GME $41.70 $32.30 $0.33 -21.8% 2.0%
NUS $44.56 $40.16 $0.35 -9.1% 2.0%
Totals -0.7% 2.0%
As a side not, the five stocks that Mr Random did not give me are up almost 2%.  I still believe and looking forward to second tranche in a couple weeks.

2 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

I am up 2.8% even with RGR down 30%!
Guess I will get your GME and NUS on December 31st.
I am still worried that there is not enough selection in the sort over 100M.
I still think to make this more random the sort needs to be 300M and include any stock that is +1 billion and has a dividend of greater than 1.8%. Some what like the Motley Fool, TrackJGreenblatt.
At present, the 100M sort only produces 4 new stocks for me in Dec. CSCO, GME, NUS, amd PDLI. Way too limited in my view. And has no need for random selections.
The 300M gets you 15 picks or 19 if you drop down in dividend yield. I own 4 of them but still would have 11 to 15 stock for Mr. Random.

John

John Carney said...

Marsh,

This 300M sort still has you picking from the top 31 stocks over +1 billion.