Well, I guess this past week was the Santa Rally for 2014. I was up about 4%, which I have to say was nice after a tough stretch. Still a bad year, but at least a little bit better. Now down just 9%.
At least I continue to Step Away From the Batter, which frankly was a mistake this week as a lot of stocks I might have bought at the start of the week popped about 10%. For fun, I went through my top 200 analysis and listed stocks that were beaten down in the Oil & Gas space. AE, RES, NOV, HGT, CRT, FET, OIS and FTI. If I had bought that basket at the end of Monday here is what my result would have been:
| Stock | 15-Dec | 19-Dec | Change |
| 18.17 | 20.27 | 11.6% | |
| NOV | 61.93 | 67.07 | 8.3% |
| AE | 38.85 | 46.75 | 20.3% |
| 42.94 | 48.68 | 13.4% | |
| FET | 17.21 | 21.27 | 23.6% |
| 12.11 | 14.11 | 16.5% | |
| 7.67 | 8.08 | 5.3% | |
| 42.75 | 48.2 | 12.7% |
MFI Select
Had a good week, frankly up exactly with the averages. I am still beating the R3K by 27 points:
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $17.13 | $20.25 | $0.20 | 19.4% | 16.4% | |
| $61.47 | $69.72 | $18.40 | 43.4% | 16.4% | |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $14.16 | $0.00 | -12.7% | 16.4% |
| $69.55 | $99.99 | $0.83 | 45.0% | 16.4% | |
| WNR | $39.11 | $37.61 | $3.04 | 3.9% | 16.4% |
| Totals | 19.8% | 16.4% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $20.24 | $0.00 | 3.4% | 10.7% |
| CA | $29.54 | $30.92 | $0.75 | 7.2% | 10.7% |
| $22.79 | $27.77 | $0.38 | 23.5% | 10.7% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $26.47 | $0.00 | 2.5% | 10.7% |
| $28.78 | $34.18 | $0.46 | 20.4% | 10.7% | |
| Totals | 11.4% | 10.7% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $27.77 | $0.19 | 14.6% | 6.0% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $32.29 | $0.70 | -10.1% | 6.0% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $22.45 | $0.38 | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| $9.34 | $11.61 | $0.04 | 24.7% | 6.0% | |
| $58.25 | $41.31 | $0.07 | -29.0% | 6.0% | |
| Totals | 1.5% | 6.0% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $59.90 | $0.21 | -7.2% | 1.7% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $46.03 | $0.00 | 19.7% | 1.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $75.92 | $0.33 | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $11.65 | $0.01 | -4.3% | 1.7% |
| $4.40 | $4.44 | $0.00 | 0.9% | 1.7% | |
| Totals | 2.9% | 1.7% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 1.5% | 2.9% | 19.8% | 11.4% | 8.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 39.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | - | - | 14.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 63.6% | 68.9% | 113.5% | 48.2% | 73.6% |
| Current Balance | 40,912 | 42,228 | 53,380 | 37,048 | 173,568 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 6.0% | 1.7% | 16.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 54.6% | 59.1% | 40.9% | 31.6% | 46.6% |
| R3K Balance | 38,660 | 39,773 | 35,235 | 32,907 | 146,576 |
| Annualized IRR | 23.3% | 28.4% | 49.6% | 27.4% | 32.5% |
| Date | Differential | Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | |
| Current | 26.99% | 173,568 |
The construction stocks continue to be the big drag, FLR, AGX & CBI. No huge open winners for me, though SNDK & KLAC are both up about 45%, giving the February 2014 tranche a decent edge.
MFI Formula
Still just have the single tranche here. Makes it a short list. Obviously GME is the big laggard causing me to trail the averages.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.02 | $0.11 | 11.1% | 5.5% |
| $45.55 | $51.24 | $0.22 | 13.0% | 5.5% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $30.92 | $0.25 | 11.8% | 5.5% |
| $41.70 | $34.50 | $0.33 | -16.5% | 5.5% | |
| $44.56 | $43.55 | $0.35 | -1.5% | 5.5% | |
| Totals | 3.6% | 5.5% |
As a note, the stocks not picked by Mr Random are up 4.7% (before dividends). So better than me, but probably still trailing market a bit. Anyway, this is a marathon, not a sprint. So we will judge this new approach in a few years, not a single quarter.
Other Stuff
GNW continues to be my largest holding and continues to struggle (though recall I sold about 25% of my position a couple weeks ago). Yesterday was a bad news is good news day as the stock went up 7.5% with this headline to start the day:
I have to admit being at a bit of a loss as to why the stock popped 7.5%. I suggest that means the market was expecting worse than "under review". I frankly would be surprised if AM Best does not downgrade GNW.
Well, I think that is enough for now. I wish you and yours a happy holiday season.
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