Tuesday, December 30, 2014

One Day To Next Formula Tranche

One More Day

Tomorrow I put more money to work in my MFI Formula approach.  I now have a very snazzy excel spreadsheet to automate what is actually a very simple approach.  Recall I will take the following steps:


  1. Start with top 50 stocks greater than $100m from official screen.
  2. Pare down that list to stocks with a market cap > $600m and a Yahoo dividend yield of greater than 2.4%.
  3. Then I can throw out one stock.
  4. Randomly select 5 stocks from remaining list.

If I did it today, here are the stocks:


Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 BKE                  2,573         53.45                2.08 3.9%
2 CA                13,620         30.74                1.00 3.3%
3 CSCO              144,178         28.33                0.74 2.6%
4 COH                10,396         37.94                1.35 3.6%
5 GME                  3,678         33.99                1.32 3.8%
6 KING                  5,146         15.60                0.46 2.9%
7 NUS                  2,712         44.23                1.38 3.1%
8 PDLI                  1,180           7.73                0.60 7.8%
9 PBI                  5,069         24.76                0.75 3.0%
10 RGR                      670         35.13                1.62 4.6%

Of course my first tranche had BKE, CA, GME and NUS. So there is a decent chance I will have some repeats.  But that is part of the "formula". Wish me luck. I will let you know the five tomorrow or else you have to wait until 2015.


10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $27.10 $0.11 15.7% 5.8%
BKE $45.55 $53.52 $0.22 18.0% 5.8%
CA $27.87 $30.77 $0.25 11.3% 5.8%
GME $41.70 $34.35 $0.33 -16.8% 5.8%
NUS $44.56 $44.25 $0.35 0.1% 5.8%
Totals 5.6% 5.8%

3 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

I am not sure I would want 10% of my money in any MFI stock. Before I did a repeat I would drop down in dividend yield or change the sort.

Paul T said...

I posted this on one of your earlier blog posts:

I'm curious why you:
"Take the to 50 stocks over $100 million" then proceed to throw out ever stock under $600M

Why not just take the top 50 over $600M, then you would likely have even more stocks to randomize

Marsh_Gerda said...

Paul & John - I am simply replicating an approach that would have worked very very well over the past 9 years. There are other permutations that may have worked as well. And John, even if I got the same stock in four straight iterations, that would be just 1.4% of my net worth.