Saturday, December 27, 2014

Weekend Update 12/27/14

Weekend Update

In the Big Apple with my family for a mini three day vacation.  We went and saw Matilda on Broadway last night. I think it was the first time I had ever considered leaving a play at intermission.  The theater was very warm, the seats were cramped and actually causing my torn ACL knee to hurt, the lead actress for Matilda was not there and the back-up frankly wasn't very good and finally, I was not enjoying the story.

But I persevered. The second half was better, but I would not recommend it.  Today we are going to see "On The Town". We have much better seats and I know the songs and story.  Tomorrow we are going to the Metropolitan Museum of Art, I was surprised (and pleased) that that was what my 15 year daughter wanted to do.

It has been a better run for my portfolio. I am up 7% since 12/16.  Still down 8% for this very dreadful year.  Looking forward to turning the calendar.

MFI Select

Still holding on to a strong 28.6 percentage point edge over R3K.  I have been very flat though since July.  It is interesting though that MFI after a few rocky months seems to be working better in aggregate. My MFI Index of 50 stocks is up 14.1% for the year. Not too shabby. My MFI select is up 11.4%, I think the construction stock picks have been my weakest link.

2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $20.42 $0.20 20.4% 17.0%
KLAC $61.47 $71.85 $18.40 46.8% 17.0%
RPXC $16.22 $13.96 $0.00 -13.9% 17.0%
SNDK $69.55 $101.31 $0.83 46.9% 17.0%
WNR $39.11 $37.53 $3.04 3.7% 17.0%
Totals 20.8% 17.0%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $20.33 $0.00 3.9% 11.3%
CA $29.54 $31.21 $0.75 8.2% 11.3%
CSCO $22.79 $28.35 $0.38 26.1% 11.3%
NSR $25.82 $27.75 $0.00 7.5% 11.3%
RCII $28.78 $36.32 $0.46 27.8% 11.3%
Totals 14.7% 11.3%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.35 $0.19 17.0% 6.6%
AGX $36.71 $34.27 $0.70 -4.7% 6.6%
ITRN $21.32 $22.09 $0.38 5.4% 6.6%
BRCD $9.34 $11.86 $0.04 27.4% 6.6%
CBI $58.25 $42.48 $0.14 -26.8% 6.6%
Totals 3.6% 6.6%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $60.53 $0.21 -6.3% 2.2%
IPCM $38.45 $46.00 $0.00 19.6% 2.2%
VIAB $72.29 $76.91 $0.33 6.8% 2.2%
NHTC $12.19 $11.30 $0.01 -7.2% 2.2%
AWRE $4.40 $4.48 $0.00 1.8% 2.2%
Totals 3.0% 2.2%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 3.6% 3.0% 20.8% 14.7% 10.2%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 39.5%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7%            -               -   14.5%
MFI Overall Gain 67.2% 69.0% 115.3% 52.6% 76.0%
Current Balance      41,794       42,253     53,818      38,139    176,004
R3K Current Tranche 6.6% 2.2% 17.0% 11.3% 9.3%
R3K Overall Gain 55.5% 60.0% 41.7% 32.3% 47.4%
R3K Balance      38,873       39,993     35,427      33,087    147,380
Annualized IRR 24.3% 28.2% 49.7% 29.3% 33.6%

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420
Current 28.62%      176,004

MFI Formula

The exciting part is I pick 5 stocks for tranche #2 on Wednesday this week.  It will be interesting to see what Mr Formula deals me.  My portfolio is pretty much just running dead even with benchmark, though there has been some up and down.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $27.09 $0.11 15.6% 6.1%
BKE $45.55 $52.38 $0.22 15.5% 6.1%
CA $27.87 $31.21 $0.25 12.9% 6.1%
GME $41.70 $33.65 $0.33 -18.5% 6.1%
NUS $44.56 $46.01 $0.35 4.0% 6.1%
Totals 5.9% 6.1%

Obviously GME has been the problem child.  I am comfortable with the formula approach and over the next year will continue to add money to create ultimately 4 tranches.

The next week will be busy for my monitoring.  I will add a new  tranche (which does take some effort in my spreadsheets), I will reconstitute my MFI Index (an annual thing), and I have to set up my spreadsheet for a new year (always takes some effort) good thing I am home on Thursday. I will also finish up a tracking portfolio (I always run one in parallel with year-end.

Have a safe and fun New Year week.

2 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

I did mine on December 23th as I did not want to go into the end of the year with the slow trading days and holidays.

My rules when I don't have at least ten stocks to use for Mr. Random on is to do a 100M, 150M, 200M, and 250M until I get 10 stocks with a dividend greater than 2.5%.

Marsh_Gerda said...

John - seems like a good approach. Thanks for sharing