Wow, my mechanical formula portfolio has 5 new stocks coming onto the list on Monday. That is the most in eons! Since my mechanical portfolio has been doing so well of late, I thought I'd profile the newbies... they are some familiar names. Oh, before I start I will mention that I did buy a decent chunk of Dell this week, which was new to the list last week.
FWLT - I profiled this stock when they hit the top 100 list on October 6th. It hasn't been pretty as they are down about 50% (compared to 32% for SP500). They have been steadily earning pre-tax about $160m a quarter, not bad for a stock with a $1.9b MC. They are in a strong cash position. They see challenges in 2009, especially in their power division. Interestingly, they were relatively bullish on their construction and engineering divisions. I already own KBR, so will not dabble with FWLT.
HCKT - not exactly a household name, they provide consulting services to businesses globally. They have a bunch of cash (33m for a 99m market cap) and they have had a nice earnings stream. They do project the first quarter to be down YoY from 2008, though still making money. I think they are worth considering.
PTIE - this is a bio-tech company. I know, bio-tech and MFI don't exactly go hand-in-hand. In an "upside down" MFI list, the best stocks would be virtually all bio-techs. Looking at their financials, I'd stay away from them as their earnings stream is very unsteady. That being said, they have 170m in cash against their 190m market cap, but that game has never worked well for me. I don't have the courage to go this speculative, but this could be a big winner.
TRLG - I know these guys, I owned the stock in my early profitable days and did very very well with TRLG. They sell high-end jeans, think $300, but have been trying to brand themselves beyond jeans. The stock has ben crushed, down to $10 and change, it was pushing $30 last Spring as I recall. Pretty hard to be bullish today on high-end clothing, that is a discretionary purchase if there ever was one. That being said, they have a good management team, a strong balance sheet and they have been increasing sales despite the headwinds. They expect 2009 to be flat with 2008, earnings around $1.80. That isn't too shabby in today's maelstorm for a $10 stock. I doubt I'll buy them, but I think you could do worse. I'd buy them before COH for example, not that I think COH is a terrible buy.
DECK - I also remember these guys. When I first started MFI three years ago (yes I passed my three year annivesary with minimal hooplah) they would have been the BEST stock to buy. They went from $41 to $156 in two years. I kicked myself many times for passing. But now they have come back to $41, a complete round trip. I don't know much about them, except they make shoes which can be extraordinaily trendy, see HLYS and CROX charts. I won't be buying them this February either, let us see if I am kicking myself again in a year (not with their shoes I may add). Wow, they had a monster 4th quarter! No debt, tons of cash. Wonder why they dropped so much? They did lower guidance, still $7.25 a share is good for a 41 dollar stock. I think the issue is that their inventories are building. That is never a good sign for shoe manufacturers.
So I doubt I'll buy any of the newbies, though I recently bought prior newbies CKSW, AHCI (their CEO just had a large inside purchase) and DELL.
Take care! Happy birthday MFI.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
Do Two Negatives Make a Positive?
Wow, even Kudlow is negative! That must be a sign we're reaching the bottom. My portfolio continues to fall less fast than the benchmarks and I am likely within a week (or one good day) of passing them up. Hard to be too excited.
My mechanical portfolio also is relatively humming, up by 8% over the S&P 500. It also looks like several stocks may get added this weekend as there is a lot of churning in the top 25 list as we rumble towards the end of earning season.
My mechanical portfolio also is relatively humming, up by 8% over the S&P 500. It also looks like several stocks may get added this weekend as there is a lot of churning in the top 25 list as we rumble towards the end of earning season.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 2.60 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -37.9% | -38.7% | 0.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.57 | - | 136.37 | 2.72 | 9.6% | -37.3% | 47.0% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.21 | - | 135.14 | 2.72 | -77.9% | -36.7% | -41.1% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.00 | - | 135.14 | 2.72 | -76.7% | -36.7% | -39.9% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.83 | - | 135.62 | 2.72 | -44.1% | -40.9% | -3.2% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.55 | - | 131.36 | 2.72 | -73.5% | -41.6% | -31.9% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 0.49 | - | 131.36 | 2.72 | -86.8% | -41.6% | -45.1% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.90 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.72 | -25.5% | -41.6% | 16.1% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 11.28 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -41.4% | -42.1% | 0.8% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 1.75 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -36.1% | -42.5% | 6.3% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 5.46 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -39.2% | -42.5% | 3.3% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 6.91 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -60.3% | -42.5% | -17.9% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 7.72 | 1.00 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -55.5% | -44.5% | -11.0% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 12.90 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -10.0% | -44.5% | 34.4% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 2.96 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -43.9% | -44.5% | 0.5% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 19.56 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -52.4% | -43.0% | -9.4% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 7.45 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 15.1% | -43.0% | 58.2% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.14 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -57.5% | -45.1% | -12.3% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 1.95 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -68.8% | -45.6% | -23.3% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 12.85 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -60.1% | -45.3% | -14.8% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 5.08 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -28.6% | -45.3% | 16.7% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 31.91 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -26.6% | -45.3% | 18.7% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.30 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -31.6% | -44.8% | 13.2% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 137.64 | 2.08 | -22.2% | -44.8% | 22.6% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 13.94 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -45.2% | -45.8% | 0.7% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 4.39 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | -5.0% | -40.4% | 35.4% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 11.00 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | -0.5% | -40.4% | 39.8% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 30.04 | 1.20 | 126.31 | 1.41 | -2.4% | -40.4% | 38.0% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 4.86 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | 0.4% | -40.0% | 40.4% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 36.53 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -39.7% | -40.3% | 0.6% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 8.28 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -24.7% | -41.8% | 17.0% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 3.90 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -68.6% | -41.8% | -26.8% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 64.33 | 0.10 | 129.37 | 1.41 | -52.2% | -41.8% | -10.4% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 13.72 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -13.9% | -41.8% | 27.9% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.48 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -30.4% | -39.4% | 9.0% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 7.82 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -62.2% | -40.2% | -21.9% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 6.19 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -62.6% | -39.3% | -23.3% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 5.04 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -39.2% | -38.2% | -1.0% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 2.95 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -32.0% | -38.2% | 6.2% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 25.79 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | -8.9% | -38.2% | 29.3% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 7.06 | 0.52 | 88.50 | 0.72 | -25.1% | -15.7% | -9.5% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 14.47 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | -0.8% | -15.7% | 14.9% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -45.6% | -19.9% | -25.7% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 15.41 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -13.3% | -22.9% | 9.6% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 3.44 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -53.5% | -22.9% | -30.6% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 3.76 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -11.3% | -22.9% | 11.6% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 13.64 | 0.20 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -31.4% | -20.5% | -10.9% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 8.20 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -39.6% | -20.5% | -19.1% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 2.96 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 23.8% | -6.1% | 30.0% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 12.60 | 0.05 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 21.1% | -6.1% | 27.2% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.18 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 25.5% | -6.1% | 31.7% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 0.63 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | -47.9% | -6.1% | -41.8% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 6.27 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 1.6% | -17.1% | 18.8% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 4.63 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 5.9% | -15.1% | 21.1% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 6.95 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 19.8% | -15.1% | 34.9% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 2.25 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 99.1% | -16.1% | 115.2% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 2.12 | - | 87.16 | - | -24.3% | -15.2% | -9.1% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.40 | - | 87.16 | - | 35.9% | -15.2% | 51.1% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 15.01 | - | 87.16 | - | 11.8% | -15.2% | 26.9% |
| AHCI | 1/5/09 | 1.15 | 1.30 | - | 92.96 | - | 13.0% | -20.5% | 33.5% |
| CKSW | 1/5/09 | 1.99 | 2.95 | - | 92.96 | - | 48.2% | -20.5% | 68.7% |
| COH | 2/16/09 | 13.97 | 13.98 | - | 82.76 | - | 0.1% | -10.7% | 10.7% |
| DELL | 2/23/09 | 8.41 | 8.53 | - | 77.42 | - | 1.4% | -4.5% | 5.9% |
| SOLR | 2/23/09 | 4.22 | 4.27 | - | 77.42 | - | 1.2% | -4.5% | 5.7% |
| Totals | -23.5% | -31.6% | 8.1% | ||||||
| 69.5% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | -45.7% | -38.1% | -7.6% | |||||
| S&P C | 73.93 | ||||||||
Saturday, February 21, 2009
New Stocks, New Hope?
Wow, what a dreary week in the stock market. Jubak had an interesting article on "the plan" by our new Treasury Secretary (Treasury may save the day after all). The bad bpart about the week for me was that I had a bunch of preferred stocks, that were generally down about 15 to 20%. They didn't seem very preferred this week. They are generally in the insurance industry, but I think they got thrown out with the bathwater in the general stomping of Financial stocks.
Can you believe AIG is at 54 cents? C at $1.95? BAC at $3.79? No one clearly has any confidence these stocks will survive. You have to tip your antlers to the Moose (Moosecalls) which said move to 100% gold two weeks ago. Since then gold is up 9% and SPY is down 11%. Good call Moose!
My mechanical portfolio continues to outperform the S&P and the Magic Diligence portfolio. The stocks added since Nov 21st are up 14.5%. Pretty good, as not much is up generally speaking. The MP will be adding two new stocks on Monday and I think both are worthy of a long look for my portfolio.
DELL - I have discussed buying them several times in the past. Now they are on the top 25 list and given that they are a quality company at $8.41 makes me want to put my entire receding net worth in them. I just ordered a new dell myself last week. Also Prem Watsa himself is a buyer. I think there is a substantial margin of safety here. Heck, they even have $5b of excess cash on hand!
The second stock is the first solar company I have seen show up besides WFR. SOLR is an extremely inexpensive solar company based in New Hampshire. I don't know much about them. Their earnings seem a bit uneven, but at $4.22 they are trading at 6x 2009 expected earnings. They also have no debt and cash on hand. If Obama does much pro-solar, they could do ok in the downturn. I think you could do worse than SOLR and may consider buying next week (I will certainly buy Dell in next two weeks).
Maybe March will be better!
Can you believe AIG is at 54 cents? C at $1.95? BAC at $3.79? No one clearly has any confidence these stocks will survive. You have to tip your antlers to the Moose (Moosecalls) which said move to 100% gold two weeks ago. Since then gold is up 9% and SPY is down 11%. Good call Moose!
My mechanical portfolio continues to outperform the S&P and the Magic Diligence portfolio. The stocks added since Nov 21st are up 14.5%. Pretty good, as not much is up generally speaking. The MP will be adding two new stocks on Monday and I think both are worthy of a long look for my portfolio.
DELL - I have discussed buying them several times in the past. Now they are on the top 25 list and given that they are a quality company at $8.41 makes me want to put my entire receding net worth in them. I just ordered a new dell myself last week. Also Prem Watsa himself is a buyer. I think there is a substantial margin of safety here. Heck, they even have $5b of excess cash on hand!
| dell | ||
| + | Operating Income After Depreciation | 3,671.00 |
| - | Minority Interest - Income Account | 6.00 |
| = | Income for Calculation | 3,665.00 |
| Market Cap Yahoo | 16,350,000 | |
| Share Price | 8.41 | |
| + | Market Cap Calc | 16,350.00 |
| + | Preferred Capital | - |
| + | Debt in Current Liabilities | 266.00 |
| + | Long-Term Debt | 1,851.00 |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | 8,819.00 | |
| - | Excess Cash | 5,379.00 |
| = | Enterprise Value | 13,088.00 |
| + | Property Plant and Equipment - Net | 2,458.00 |
| + | Receivables | 7,058.00 |
| + | Inventories | 1,109.00 |
| + | Other Current Assests | 4,548.00 |
| + | Working Cash | 3,440.00 |
| - | Accounts Payable | 9,475.00 |
| - | Current Liabilities - Other | 6,680.00 |
| = | Invested Capital | 2,458.00 |
| Earnings Yield | 28% | |
| ROIC | 149% |
The second stock is the first solar company I have seen show up besides WFR. SOLR is an extremely inexpensive solar company based in New Hampshire. I don't know much about them. Their earnings seem a bit uneven, but at $4.22 they are trading at 6x 2009 expected earnings. They also have no debt and cash on hand. If Obama does much pro-solar, they could do ok in the downturn. I think you could do worse than SOLR and may consider buying next week (I will certainly buy Dell in next two weeks).
Maybe March will be better!
Monday, February 16, 2009
Stock Ideas
On this "off day" with the markets closed, I spent some time looking at the MFI lists. There are some great ideas out there.
Four Tech Horseman - if you all of a sudden had $100,000 fall from the sky and you knew you weren't going to need the $ for ten years, I think you could do a lot worse than buy DELL (9.12), EBAY (13.19), MSFT (19.09) and INTC (13.88). These are 4 "best-of-breed" companies with strong balance sheets selling very cheap. Now I just need the "pennies from heaven"!
Newest stock in my mechanical contest. Today I updated my mechanical portfolio of "new" top 25 stocks with the first new stock in about 6 weeks. The newbie? COH. How the high have fallen. I owned Coach last summer but sold them when it dawned on me that high-end discretionary retail was not the place to be. They are down to 13.97. They got $1.30 in cash, no debt and trade at under 4x their EBITDA.
The final stock of interest is NTRI. They pay a 5% dividend. They have a strong balance sheet. They are rolling their product out in Costco (is that a positive?). I think in tough times, people will still want to lose weight... it isn't like botox or plastic surgery... ya still gotta eat!
Four Tech Horseman - if you all of a sudden had $100,000 fall from the sky and you knew you weren't going to need the $ for ten years, I think you could do a lot worse than buy DELL (9.12), EBAY (13.19), MSFT (19.09) and INTC (13.88). These are 4 "best-of-breed" companies with strong balance sheets selling very cheap. Now I just need the "pennies from heaven"!
Newest stock in my mechanical contest. Today I updated my mechanical portfolio of "new" top 25 stocks with the first new stock in about 6 weeks. The newbie? COH. How the high have fallen. I owned Coach last summer but sold them when it dawned on me that high-end discretionary retail was not the place to be. They are down to 13.97. They got $1.30 in cash, no debt and trade at under 4x their EBITDA.
The final stock of interest is NTRI. They pay a 5% dividend. They have a strong balance sheet. They are rolling their product out in Costco (is that a positive?). I think in tough times, people will still want to lose weight... it isn't like botox or plastic surgery... ya still gotta eat!
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Continuing to Press Upwards
My portfolio continues to do great of late. I had pretty much given it up for dead last fall, I was so far under water (I'll say it now, about 60%) and way behind all the benchmarks. Well I am still way down, more like 40%, but I have passed the Russell 2000 and have virtually pulled even with the Russell 3000. Since November 21st, I am up 58% while the indices are up about 11.5%. Here are some of my winners:
TRA + 119%
LINE +49%
TC +59%
QXM +30%
EGY +107%
FSUMF +140%
BOLT +70%
KBR +52%
PCR +78%
CAST +36%
KHD +46%
FTO +67%
CSKI +91%
NRGY +83%
I know some of these were not on the MFI screen. But I considered them to be good companies at good prices based on my analysis and included them. If I get another run of 57% I'll be getting close to back to breakeven... wow, that is a sobering thought. Too bad I didn't start on November 21st!
The other portfolio that is on fire and starting to smoke the S&P 500 and the magic diligence portfolio is my automated top 25 portfolio. As a reminder, this portfolio is comprised of new accounts (new meaning it has not been on list in past 52 weeks) to the top 25 screen every weekend. This portfolio is down 15.9%, but the S&P is down almost 26% giving me a 9 point advantage. Again, November 21st is the turn date. The stocks added on that day forward are up an average of 24.5% against down over 3% for the benchmark. I am starting to "retire" stocks. Four have retired, with 2 disasters (CITP and PRXI both down about 77%).
TRA + 119%
LINE +49%
TC +59%
QXM +30%
EGY +107%
FSUMF +140%
BOLT +70%
KBR +52%
PCR +78%
CAST +36%
KHD +46%
FTO +67%
CSKI +91%
NRGY +83%
I know some of these were not on the MFI screen. But I considered them to be good companies at good prices based on my analysis and included them. If I get another run of 57% I'll be getting close to back to breakeven... wow, that is a sobering thought. Too bad I didn't start on November 21st!
The other portfolio that is on fire and starting to smoke the S&P 500 and the magic diligence portfolio is my automated top 25 portfolio. As a reminder, this portfolio is comprised of new accounts (new meaning it has not been on list in past 52 weeks) to the top 25 screen every weekend. This portfolio is down 15.9%, but the S&P is down almost 26% giving me a 9 point advantage. Again, November 21st is the turn date. The stocks added on that day forward are up an average of 24.5% against down over 3% for the benchmark. I am starting to "retire" stocks. Four have retired, with 2 disasters (CITP and PRXI both down about 77%).
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 2.60 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -37.9% | -38.7% | 0.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.57 | - | 136.37 | 2.00 | 9.6% | -37.8% | 47.5% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.21 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -77.9% | -37.3% | -40.6% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.00 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -76.7% | -37.3% | -39.4% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.80 | - | 135.62 | 2.00 | -44.7% | -37.5% | -7.2% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.74 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -64.4% | -35.5% | -28.9% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 0.99 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -73.2% | -35.5% | -37.8% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.65 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.00 | -29.3% | -35.5% | 6.2% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 12.41 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -35.6% | -35.4% | -0.2% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 2.48 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -9.5% | -35.8% | 26.3% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 6.34 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -29.4% | -35.8% | 6.4% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 9.30 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -46.6% | -35.8% | -10.8% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 10.42 | 1.00 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -41.7% | -38.0% | -3.6% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 13.78 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -4.1% | -38.0% | 33.9% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 3.64 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -31.1% | -38.0% | 7.0% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 21.69 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -47.2% | -36.4% | -10.8% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 9.25 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 43.0% | -36.4% | 79.4% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.69 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -46.5% | -38.7% | -7.8% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.36 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -62.3% | -39.2% | -23.1% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 14.86 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -54.1% | -38.9% | -15.2% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 6.63 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -6.8% | -38.9% | 32.2% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 32.79 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -24.5% | -38.9% | 14.4% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.72 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -27.0% | -38.4% | 11.3% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 2.30 | 1.00 | 137.64 | 2.08 | -24.5% | -38.4% | 13.9% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 18.37 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -28.9% | -39.6% | 10.6% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 4.39 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | -5.0% | -33.4% | 28.4% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 14.94 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 35.1% | -33.4% | 68.4% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 33.07 | 1.20 | 126.31 | 1.41 | 7.1% | -33.4% | 40.5% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 7.52 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | 55.4% | -32.9% | 88.3% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 40.55 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -33.0% | -33.3% | 0.2% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 8.31 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -24.5% | -34.9% | 10.5% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 3.98 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -67.9% | -34.9% | -33.0% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 54.68 | 0.10 | 129.37 | 1.41 | -59.3% | -34.9% | -24.4% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 13.80 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -13.4% | -34.9% | 21.6% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.47 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -31.9% | -32.4% | 0.5% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 9.58 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -53.7% | -33.2% | -20.4% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 7.78 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -53.0% | -32.2% | -20.9% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 5.30 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -36.1% | -30.9% | -5.1% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 2.97 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -31.6% | -30.9% | -0.6% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 24.62 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | -13.0% | -30.9% | 17.9% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 7.87 | 0.52 | 88.50 | 0.72 | -17.1% | -5.7% | -11.5% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 15.32 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | 5.1% | -5.7% | 10.7% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 2.60 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -28.5% | -10.4% | -18.0% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 21.02 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 18.3% | -13.8% | 32.1% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 3.65 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -50.7% | -13.8% | -36.9% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 4.26 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 0.5% | -13.8% | 14.3% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 20.69 | 0.20 | 93.86 | 0.72 | 3.6% | -11.1% | 14.6% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 9.97 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -26.5% | -11.1% | -15.5% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 3.44 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 43.9% | 5.0% | 39.0% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 14.97 | 0.05 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 43.7% | 5.0% | 38.8% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.12 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 14.2% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 0.80 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | -33.9% | 5.0% | -38.9% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 7.13 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 15.6% | -7.3% | 22.9% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 5.01 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 14.6% | -5.1% | 19.7% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 7.48 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 29.0% | -5.1% | 34.0% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 2.13 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 88.5% | -6.2% | 94.7% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 2.53 | - | 87.16 | - | -9.6% | -5.0% | -4.6% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.29 | - | 87.16 | - | 25.2% | -5.0% | 30.3% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 16.11 | - | 87.16 | - | 20.0% | -5.0% | 25.0% |
| AHCI | 1/5/09 | 1.15 | 1.27 | - | 92.96 | - | 10.4% | -11.0% | 21.4% |
| CKSW | 1/5/09 | 1.99 | 3.03 | - | 92.96 | - | 52.3% | -11.0% | 63.2% |
| Totals | -15.9% | -25.5% | 9.6% | ||||||
| 66.1% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | |||||||||
| S&P C | 82.76 | ||||||||
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Terra, Terra, Terra
TRA announced their earnings this morning. They were very good (Terra Industries: 4Q profit more than doubles). Good enough that on this miserable Tuesday, the stock actually went up. I know there is a lot of debate on whether TRA has any competitive advantage, but they are certainly cheap. That is why CF (which also had great numbers after the bell) is trying to buy them.
TRA did make a mistake in that they have locked in (through futures) a chunk of their natural gas costs, so they are not enjoying the recent drop in NG prices. I hope they are locking in the new lows for later in 2009 and 2010.
On the year they made 6.74 per share and ended the year with about $1 billion in cash. That being said, I think I would welcome a buyout at a slightly higher price ($25 to $26?).
Funny, another stock of mine (a Jubak stock) had the same issue of locking in a high price. FSUMF, which is a miner of iron ore which primarily goes to China had locked in shipping rates. Since they were locked (and loaded) they have dropped about 80%, which needless to say puts FSUMF at a slight competitive disadvantage. At the same time, they were running low on cash. Apparantly they got one shipper to agree to lower rates in exchange for stock. Jubak says they may or may not make it, a high risk stock. But if they do make it, we're looking at a possible triple.
Now for some astonishing news. My MFI portfolio has passed the Russell 2000 value benchmark and is quickly closing in on the Russell 3000. Since Nov 21, I am up about 50%, while the broader market may be up 4 to 6%. Don't mistake catching the benchmarks with breaking even, they are down around 40%.
To end my ramble, I read a great book over the weekend, "The Richest Man in Babylon". It was written in 1925 and talks about the rules "to Fatten thy Purse". It basically pretends to have found tablets from Babylon pre-Christ that give instructions on handling debt, preserving capital, saving money, understanding risk etc. It was ironic reading it in view of today's financial fiasco (not to mention mine). Quite timely.
TRA did make a mistake in that they have locked in (through futures) a chunk of their natural gas costs, so they are not enjoying the recent drop in NG prices. I hope they are locking in the new lows for later in 2009 and 2010.
On the year they made 6.74 per share and ended the year with about $1 billion in cash. That being said, I think I would welcome a buyout at a slightly higher price ($25 to $26?).
Funny, another stock of mine (a Jubak stock) had the same issue of locking in a high price. FSUMF, which is a miner of iron ore which primarily goes to China had locked in shipping rates. Since they were locked (and loaded) they have dropped about 80%, which needless to say puts FSUMF at a slight competitive disadvantage. At the same time, they were running low on cash. Apparantly they got one shipper to agree to lower rates in exchange for stock. Jubak says they may or may not make it, a high risk stock. But if they do make it, we're looking at a possible triple.
Now for some astonishing news. My MFI portfolio has passed the Russell 2000 value benchmark and is quickly closing in on the Russell 3000. Since Nov 21, I am up about 50%, while the broader market may be up 4 to 6%. Don't mistake catching the benchmarks with breaking even, they are down around 40%.
To end my ramble, I read a great book over the weekend, "The Richest Man in Babylon". It was written in 1925 and talks about the rules "to Fatten thy Purse". It basically pretends to have found tablets from Babylon pre-Christ that give instructions on handling debt, preserving capital, saving money, understanding risk etc. It was ironic reading it in view of today's financial fiasco (not to mention mine). Quite timely.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
