Saturday, January 31, 2009

No - I don't have a tie with Barron's

I have had a funny hot streak that has made me some real money. Three of my recent stock transactions in the past 3 months were then later the feature article in Barron's.

The first was LINE, which I had discussed in my blog as being hedged for the next few years in oil and gas and paid a great dividend (Investors Dig Linn Energy's Cautious Style). I had bought LINE because Seth Klarman had been buying at a higher price than the $11.50 I got.

The second was TBT, which is an ultra short fund on Treasuries. I had never bought a short fund before, but the movement of cash into treasuries seemed irrational to me. Barron's agreed the following weekend (This Week's 'Barron's' Roundup). I had bought the etf at $35.50 and sold over $45 in a few short weeks.

The third was this weekend with HIG. I mentioned in my last blog that I had bought them at $13.50. We'll see where they go post the article (The Hartford: Hedged Against Disaster). I know I will not be in any rush to sell them... I mentioned in my blog I'll be looking for a 100% gain, so at least a $25 target price.

These picks are helping me go against the tide in the past 2+ months, as I have held up pretty well. Stay tuned, it may be 5 years before I get another Barron's feature a week or two early. We'll see. I will mention my other major buy last week, PTP - another insurer. I am still using MFI, but I went back and looked at all my insurance picks since 2002 and I have an annualized IRR of 31%. It is clear to me that stock picking in an industry I work in is easier. PTP is selling about 20% under book value. They have a good cash flow and have publicly stated that they are going to aggressively use the cash to buy back their stock, which they believe (as do I) is under-valued. So just by standing still, their EPS should be increasing, which sounds good to me. They're expected to earn over $5 a share in 2009 and have a share price under $28.

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