Wow, actually had a big day. It was really helped by the refining section as HOC was up 7% and WNR was up 14%. It goes to what I have been saying for some time... these refiners are extremely seasonal. Margins go down in the fall/winter as driving slows down and increases in the spring/summer. And every year the stock markets acts like this is news. I bought a bunch of estra of both stocks in my IRA to sell in July/August. The trigger today was VLO (Analyst says Valero's earnings a 'clear beat'), which showed that even with slimmed down margins that refiners are making some dough. Even with the bumps, the sector is still cheap in my opinion.
One item that has really caught my eye of late is how much cash some MFI stocks have. They say "cash is king" and it certainly seems like something you'd want to have in a recession, but the stocks have been pounded nonetheless and seem like good values.
IVAC (11.22) - Cash per share = $6.16
SIMG (4.48) - Cash per share = $2.68
PRLS (2.39) - Cash per share = $1.24
TRID (5.02) - Cash per share = $3.41
HLYS (6.35) - Cash per share = $3.32
KSWS (17.69) - Cash per share = $8.13
KSW (6.60) - cash per share = $2.90
KFY (15.13) - Cash per Share = $5.19
HSII (26.82) - cash per share = $12.37
This is in no way a complete list, just some stocks off the top of my head. Look at those numbers again, on many of those stocks, about 1/2 their stock price is backed by cash. Stunning stuff. Gosh, I may run out and buy more of some of these stocks.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Financial Stock Update
I would have done well to have fully taken my own advice from last week:
GNW: 21.86 to 21.77 0%
ACAS: 28.70 to 31.79 +11%
BCS: 34.85 to 38.32 +10%
MBI: 8.55 to 14.20 +66%
C: 24.45 to 26.64 +9%
PMI: 6.47 to 9.12 +41%
FMD: 14.30 to 17.30 +21%
All Stocks Average: 22%.
Disclosure - I own the 1st three. I added some more GNW during the week.
24 of my current holdings are in the current top 100. Here are ones not on the list:
TGB
DGX
TCK
LRCX
UG
PNCL
USHS
WNR
GVHR
Here is the top 50 over 100m list that I'll use to replace the tracking portfolio that just matured:
GNW: 21.86 to 21.77 0%
ACAS: 28.70 to 31.79 +11%
BCS: 34.85 to 38.32 +10%
MBI: 8.55 to 14.20 +66%
C: 24.45 to 26.64 +9%
PMI: 6.47 to 9.12 +41%
FMD: 14.30 to 17.30 +21%
All Stocks Average: 22%.
Disclosure - I own the 1st three. I added some more GNW during the week.
24 of my current holdings are in the current top 100. Here are ones not on the list:
TGB
DGX
TCK
LRCX
UG
PNCL
USHS
WNR
GVHR
Here is the top 50 over 100m list that I'll use to replace the tracking portfolio that just matured:
| Top 50 companies with a minimum market cap. of $101 million Companies are listed in alphabetical order | ||||||
| Name (in alphabetical order) | Ticker | Market Cap ($ Millions) | Pre Tax Earnings Yield | Pre Tax Return on Capital | Price From | Most Recent Quarter Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accenture Ltd | ACN | 20,251.02 | 13% | > 100% | 01/25 | 11/30 |
| AmSurg Corp | AMSG | 807.97 | 16% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Ambassadors Group Inc | EPAX | 337.80 | 16% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| American Eagle Outfitters Inc. | AEO | 4,597.80 | 16% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 10/31 |
| Barrett Business Services Inc | BBSI | 203.11 | 17% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Biovail Corp | BVF | 2,032.12 | 23% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Broadvision Inc | BVSN | 179.88 | 13% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| COMSYS IT Partners Inc | CITP | 227.89 | 14% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| CSG Systems International Inc. | CSGS | 472.74 | 16% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| China 3C Group | CHCG | 168.54 | 24% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| ChinaCast Education Corp | CAST | 158.30 | 11% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Cutera Inc | CUTR | 168.41 | 22% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Diamond Management & Technology Consultants Inc | DTPI | 145.93 | 23% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| FTD Group Inc | FTD | 293.49 | 13% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| FreightCar America Inc | RAIL | 420.90 | 46% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Frontier Oil Corp. | FTO | 3,488.28 | 24% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| HealthTronics Inc | HTRN | 138.87 | 25% | 50 - 75% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Heelys Inc | HLYS | 171.37 | 72% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Heidrick & Struggles International Inc | HSII | 457.76 | 24% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Holly Corp | HOC | 2,535.83 | 20% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc | HBMFF | 2,249.38 | 27% | 50 - 75% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| ICF International Inc | ICFI | 349.57 | 20% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Idearc Inc | IAR | 2,253.92 | 13% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Intevac Inc | IVAC | 229.99 | 56% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| King Pharmaceuticals Inc. | KG | 2,439.26 | 37% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Korn/Ferry International | KFY | 705.28 | 21% | > 100% | 01/25 | 10/31 |
| LCA Vision Inc | LCAV | 302.70 | 20% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| LoJack Corp | LOJN | 203.84 | 20% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Logility Inc | LGTY | 126.22 | 12% | > 100% | 01/25 | 10/31 |
| MicroStrategy Inc | MSTR | 867.74 | 11% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Pacer International Inc | PACR | 541.26 | 15% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Palomar Medical Technologies Inc | PMTI | 257.77 | 25% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Perini Corp | PCR | 885.50 | 22% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Premier Exhibitions Inc | PRXI | 168.50 | 15% | > 100% | 01/25 | 11/30 |
| Robert Half International Inc. | RHI | 3,754.75 | 14% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| SAIC Inc | SAI | 2,855.10 | 21% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 10/31 |
| Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd | SLXP | 316.38 | 17% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Select Comfort Corp | SCSS | 310.78 | 18% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Silicon Image Inc | SIMG | 344.38 | 33% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Supertex Inc | SUPX | 247.64 | 19% | 50 - 75% | 01/25 | 12/31 |
| Travelzoo Inc | TZOO | 220.16 | 13% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Trident Microsystems Inc | TRID | 296.64 | 41% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| USA Mobility Inc | USMO | 322.77 | 29% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| United Online Inc | UNTD | 724.41 | 15% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Vaalco Energy Inc | EGY | 267.21 | 30% | 75 - 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Value Line Inc | VALU | 395.29 | 11% | > 100% | 01/25 | 10/31 |
| Verigy Ltd | VRGY | 1,192.91 | 13% | > 100% | 01/25 | 10/31 |
| ViroPharma Inc | VPHM | 617.09 | 39% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| Westwood One Inc. | WON | 146.94 | 16% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
| j2 Global Communications Inc | JCOM | 935.83 | 11% | > 100% | 01/25 | 09/30 |
Don't Look!
It wasn't a bad week for my portfolio. Sadly, it came on the heels of 3 dreadful weeks. But it is time to start printing my charts and tables again. I am coming up on my 2-year anniversary... with a thud. Looking back, I think a couple of things happened.
I posted results from my stock contest. The average person is down more than 20% since July 1st. It is widespread pain. Below I list my most recent tracking portfolio that just hit a year old (plus how the other 13 closed portfolios fared). It was down more than 10% and down more than Russell 3000 benchmark:
Now for my graph. I haven't posted it recently as it is so ugly. It shows how my portfolio has fared against breakeven and against the Russell 3000. You'll see how bad the 1st three weeks of January were. Yikes!
Finally here are my current holdings:
- When the credit crisis hit in July, Private Equity buyouts ended. I think many MFI stocks had been bid up as buyout candidates. That premium went away quickly.
- When the credit crisis hit, there was a flight to quality. People didn't want to own smaller, unknown stocks or larger stocks with some sort of overhang (debt or litigation).
I posted results from my stock contest. The average person is down more than 20% since July 1st. It is widespread pain. Below I list my most recent tracking portfolio that just hit a year old (plus how the other 13 closed portfolios fared). It was down more than 10% and down more than Russell 3000 benchmark:
ASPV $19.89 $26.0 30.7% |
| bbsi $22.24 $18.0 -19.1% |
| BVF $19.23 $12.62 -34.4% |
| CREL $13.51 $7.97 -41.0% |
| CRYP $24.40 $16.11 -34.0% |
| CVCO $31.92 $31.48 -1.4% |
| DEBS $26.94 $27.28 1.2% |
| EGY $6.39 $4.51 -29.4% |
| ELNK $7.28 $6.40 -12.1% |
| EPIQ $12.02 $15.47 28.7% |
| FCX $57.87 $84.22 45.5% |
| FDG $20.08 $44.21 120.2% |
| FTO $26.59 $32.94 23.9% |
| HLF $32.70 $39.35 20.3% |
| HNR $9.85 $10.54 7.0% |
| HOC $53.21 $46.60 -12.4% |
| KFY $23.07 $15.13 -34.4% |
| KG $17.74 $9.98 -43.7% |
| KSWS $31.14 $17.14 -45.0% |
| LMS $26.0 $27.30 5.0% |
| lrw $18.50 $13.17 -28.8% |
| MOT $18.17 $10.73 -40.9% |
| MTEX $14.72 $5.50 -62.6% |
| NOOF $8.97 $4.90 -45.4% |
| NUE $59.07 $54.97 -6.9% |
| ODSY $13.34 $8.76 -34.3% |
| OPMR $8.38 $4.24 -49.4% |
| OVTI $11.71 $14.44 23.3% |
| PACR $28.60 $15.60 -45.5% |
| PALM $7.57 $4.86 -35.8% |
| PCU $55.60 $87.28 57.0% |
| PNCL $17.31 $12.65 -26.9% |
| PPD $38.63 $54.47 41.0% |
| PTEN $22.76 $19.14 -15.9% |
| RAIL $54.89 $35.63 -35.1% |
| SHOO $30.93 $15.70 -49.2% |
| TCK $35.56 $32.51 -8.6% |
| TGB $2.58 $3.82 48.1% |
| TGIS $13.34 $6.11 -54.2% |
| TRLG $17.35 $17.81 2.7% |
| UIC $49.88 $80.96 62.3% |
| UNTD $13.14 $10.71 -18.5% |
| USMO $16.84 $11.82 -29.8% |
| VALU $45.42 $39.60 -12.8% |
| VCI $14.62 $9.55 -34.7% |
| VPHM $16.07 $8.83 -45.1% |
| VRGY $19.0 $19.98 5.2% |
| WNR $26.70 $20.18 -24.4% |
| Average of Percent Change |
|
|
|
| Date | Total | IWV |
|
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1/6/2006 |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 2/17/2006 |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3/29/2006 |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% | 4/7/2006 |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 17.3% | 5/12/2006 |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 22.0% | 5/31/2006 |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 18.7% | 6/30/2006 |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 15.9% | 7/31/2006 |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 8/31/2006 |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% | 9/28/2006 |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% | 10/27/2006 |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% | 11/29/2006 |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% | 12/28/2006 |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% | 1/26/2007 |
Now for my graph. I haven't posted it recently as it is so ugly. It shows how my portfolio has fared against breakeven and against the Russell 3000. You'll see how bad the 1st three weeks of January were. Yikes!
Finally here are my current holdings:
Current Portfolio | ||||
| Stock | Purchase Date | Cost | Current | Gain |
| TGB | 3/27/2007 | $2.64 | $3.82 | 44.7% |
| VSNT | 7/27/2007 | $19.54 | $25.57 | 30.9% |
| MSTR | 9/14/2007 | $69.55 | $71.36 | 2.6% |
| KSW | 5/10/2007 | $6.54 | $6.55 | 0.2% |
| KG | 11/19/2007 | $10.10 | $9.98 | -1.2% |
| ACN | 11/28/2007 | $34.28 | $33.86 | -1.2% |
| HOC | 11/29/2007 | $47.64 | $46.60 | -1.9% |
| TGIS | 12/7/2007 | $6.42 | $6.11 | -3.3% |
| DGX | 3/17/2007 | $52.11 | $49.02 | -5.2% |
| UNTD | 12/8/2007 | $11.31 | $10.71 | -5.3% |
| CHCG.OB | 1/2/2008 | $3.42 | $3.20 | -6.3% |
| VALU | 5/29/2007 | $44.01 | $39.60 | -8.7% |
| LCAV | 11/9/2007 | $17.59 | $15.88 | -8.7% |
| TCK | 8/16/2007 | $36.50 | $32.51 | -9.5% |
| KFY | 9/28/2007 | $16.74 | $15.13 | -9.6% |
| UG | 6/13/2007 | $12.09 | $10.15 | -13.7% |
| IAR | 12/21/2007 | $17.80 | $15.35 | -13.8% |
| THO | 12/6/2007 | $38.61 | $31.78 | -13.9% |
| JTX | 4/9/2007 | $28.70 | $24.02 | -14.4% |
| LRCX | 2/26/2007 | $47.51 | $39.36 | -17.2% |
| HGG | 8/3/2007 | $13.48 | $11.04 | -18.1% |
| TRID | 11/28/2007 | $6.24 | $4.99 | -20.0% |
| RAIL | 5/26/2007 | $45.54 | $35.63 | -21.4% |
| AEO | 5/16/2007 | $28.42 | $21.46 | -23.4% |
| BBSI | 9/7/2007 | $24.13 | $18.00 | -25.1% |
| PNCL | 5/4/2007 | $17.07 | $12.65 | -25.9% |
| HSII | 10/5/2007 | $39.92 | $26.00 | -34.5% |
| PACR | 3/17/2007 | $25.46 | $15.60 | -36.8% |
| NOOF | 4/27/2007 | $8.59 | $4.90 | -38.6% |
| WSTG | 5/15/2007 | $14.98 | $8.29 | -42.0% |
| USHS | 6/25/2007 | $11.22 | $5.18 | -53.8% |
| WNR | 7/27/2007 | $46.22 | $20.18 | -56.1% |
| GVHR | 10/12/2007 | $15.91 | $6.39 | -58.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gain/Loss Open Positions ($): | ($106,266) | |||
| Gain/Loss Open Positions (%): | -16.5% | |||
| Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($): | $31,238 | |||
| Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%): | 4.2% | |||
| Total Gain/Loss ($): | ($75,028) | |||
| Benchmark Gain/Loss ($): | ($7,592) | |||
| Annual IRR: | -10.8% | |||
| Total Gain/Loss (%): | -12.5% | |||
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
