I am doing well and MFI is doing well this far in 2019. For some reason doesn't "feel" that good, I guess because I was down so much in 2018. I guess the big question is whether we give these gains back.
Last year started very nicely as well. Market was up 5% as of January 19th last year. But then it dropped 9%, bottoming on February 8th. So don't get too comfortable. That being said, we have more external factors at play.
- Oil seems to have bottomed and is rising back up.
- China/US trade talks appear to be positive
- US Shutdown is costing us 0.1 in GNP every week it continues.
My MFI Index is up a snappy 11.4% so far this year (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LQJMzDhn8QY5NmM4x0qNFb-RbnnQ3KJunPTkNJXWUlQ/edit?usp=sharing). CELG and NKTR are the biggest gainers, up 34% and 40% already.
Baker's Dirty Dozen
My Baker's Dirty Dozen, 13 stocks I identified at what is looking to be the bottom on December 21st have been doing very well also:
Baker's Dirty Dozen
My Baker's Dirty Dozen, 13 stocks I identified at what is looking to be the bottom on December 21st have been doing very well also:
| Stock | Start | Current | Dividend | Gain/Loss |
| AMCX | 52.23 | 63.84 | - | 22.2% |
| AMAT | 30.31 | 35.71 | - | 17.8% |
| DLX | 37.11 | 44.03 | - | 18.6% |
| DXC | 50.48 | 62.62 | - | 24.0% |
| KLAC | 85.67 | 95.73 | - | 11.7% |
| LRCX | 127.16 | 147.55 | - | 16.0% |
| MU | 30.32 | 35.76 | - | 17.9% |
| SGH | 28.75 | 22.71 | - | -21.0% |
| WDC | 35.90 | 39.20 | - | 9.2% |
| ECA | 5.38 | 7.05 | - | 31.0% |
| GLNG | 21.72 | 23.14 | - | 6.5% |
| T | 28.31 | 30.96 | 0.51 | 11.2% |
| TGP | 11.82 | 12.79 | - | 8.2% |
| Total | 13.4% |
You can see my shipping names, GLNG and TGP, are the laggards. And SGH got crushed with recently announced earnings.
February 1st MFI Select Tranche
Just a few days left before I replace my 2/1/18 MFI Select tranche. It has been terrible and was hurt further by CASA having poor earnings this past week:
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $40.69 | $0.75 | -4.8% | -3.7% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $11.20 | $0.00 | -40.5% | -3.7% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $95.73 | $2.84 | -10.2% | -3.7% |
| THO | $136.33 | $66.61 | $1.52 | -50.0% | -3.7% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $39.20 | $2.00 | -53.0% | -3.7% |
| Totals | -31.7% | -3.7% |
Wow, that is truly atrocious. That is easily my worst MFI tranche (either Select or Formula) since my 2012 reboots. I know I felt "smart" about CASA at one point, it was actually up over 50%, north of $33 last Spring.
I will definitely be putting some extra dollars into this tranche when I renew it. This is part of my approach to keep ramping up MFI as part of my overall portfolio. I am pretty sure WDC and AGX will both be "bought" again. Clearly I will add substantially to WDC shares with the 53% drop.
The other three stocks will likely come from MU, ALSN, EAF, DXC, DLX, VIAB and AMCX (so definitely still like some Baker's Dirty Dozen names).
Year To Date
Here is a table showing Year to date results:
| Component | YTD |
| Overall | +10.8% |
| MFI Select | +6.3% |
| MFI Formula | +10.8% |
| MFI Combined | +8.7% |
| Non MFI | +12.1% |
| Dividend Index | +5.0% |
| R3K Index | +6.9% |
| Blended Index | +4.6% |
| MFI Index | +11.4% |
| GARIX | +3.4% |
A few interesting items. First I am up 10.8%. Obviously I want more, but that might not be a terrible results for the year. Second GARIX is just up 3.4%. That doesn't seem very good and suggests that value is not out-performing right now.
Finally, my dividend index is up 5%. Here is a listing of the securities making up that index:
| Ticker | 12/30/2018 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change |
| AMLP | 8.73 | 9.86 | - | 12.9% |
| NML | 6.69 | 7.63 | - | 14.1% |
| EPD | 24.59 | 27.52 | - | 11.9% |
| KMI | 15.38 | 18.01 | - | 17.1% |
| FDD | 11.94 | 12.53 | - | 4.9% |
| VGK | 48.62 | 51.24 | - | 5.4% |
| NVS | 85.81 | 88.99 | - | 3.7% |
| NOBL | 60.54 | 63.47 | - | 4.8% |
| VYM | 77.99 | 82.15 | - | 5.3% |
| MRK | 76.41 | 75.87 | - | -0.7% |
| PEP | 110.48 | 110.07 | - | -0.4% |
| VNQ | 74.57 | 79.43 | - | 6.5% |
| RQI | 10.36 | 11.37 | - | 9.7% |
| TCO | 45.49 | 50.65 | - | 11.3% |
| SLG | 79.08 | 89.24 | - | 12.8% |
| T | 28.54 | 30.96 | 0.51 | 10.3% |
| VZ | 56.22 | 57.09 | 0.56 | 2.5% |
| CHL | 48.00 | 51.42 | - | 7.1% |
| DSU | 9.77 | 10.38 | - | 6.2% |
| HIO | 4.38 | 4.66 | - | 6.4% |
| MUB | 109.04 | 108.97 | - | -0.1% |
| PRHYX | 6.16 | 6.36 | - | 3.2% |
| NEA | 12.31 | 12.80 | - | 4.0% |
| JNK | 33.59 | 35.07 | - | 4.4% |
| VWITX | 13.91 | 13.96 | - | 0.4% |
| PHMIX | 8.90 | 8.91 | - | 0.1% |
| UTG | 29.43 | 30.80 | - | 4.7% |
| XLU | 52.92 | 53.14 | - | 0.4% |
| DUK | 86.30 | 85.60 | - | -0.8% |
| EIX | 56.77 | 54.88 | - | -3.3% |
| PFF | 34.23 | 35.50 | - | 3.7% |
| JPC | 8.34 | 9.02 | - | 8.2% |
| TIP | 109.51 | 109.74 | - | 0.2% |
| SHY | 83.62 | 83.54 | - | -0.1% |
| TLT | 121.51 | 119.56 | - | -1.6% |
| Totals | - | - | 5.0% |
So KMI the big winner so far (which I own, yea!). Some of the "safe haven" plays are struggling, TLT, SHY and TIP. I am really starting to be interested in CHL. Barron's had a good piece on it this weekend, so it may pop a bit more.
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