As my readers know, I have two portfolios of real money MFI investments: (1) MFI Select and (2) MFI Formula. Each portfolio has 4 tranches, which I buy and hold for a year. And each tranche has five stocks.
My 2/1/2018 MFI Select tranche just hit it's one year anniversary with the close of the markets today. So for record-keeping, I have placed it into the "closed" category.
It was my worst tranche since my 2012 reboot, down 27.3%. My goal is to avoid stocks that can drop by 30% or more... and clearly I was unsuccessful with that goal (more of an aspiration this time). All-in-all, I picked poorly. I had had so much success that I picked a few names (CASA being one) that I really should have known better. Here are the stocks... drum roll, please.
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $42.29 | $1.00 | -0.6% | -2.4% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $11.64 | $0.00 | -38.1% | -2.4% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $106.57 | $2.84 | -0.4% | -2.4% |
| THO | $136.33 | $65.11 | $1.52 | -51.1% | -2.4% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $44.99 | $2.00 | -46.4% | -2.4% |
| Totals | -27.3% | -2.4% |
So, not much to do but have a day of self-pity, lick wounds and get back on proverbial horse tomorrow. I do think I will go a $3b+ route with a 2% dividend as starting point. No more trying to be a hero.
Every Closed Tranche
So here is a listing of all my closed tranches in MFI Select.
| 8/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $33.04 | $4.00 | 7.6% | 22.1% |
| KFY | $13.98 | $18.95 | $0.00 | 35.6% | 22.1% |
| MSFT | $30.19 | $31.92 | $0.92 | 8.8% | 22.1% |
| NSU | $3.62 | $3.33 | $0.12 | -4.6% | 22.1% |
| UIS | $19.96 | $24.52 | $0.00 | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| Totals | 14.1% | 22.1% | |||
| 11/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $537.62 | $527.28 | $8.75 | -0.3% | 36.7% |
| ABC | $40.21 | $69.23 | $0.86 | 74.3% | 36.7% |
| LPS | $23.89 | $34.26 | $0.40 | 45.1% | 36.7% |
| VIAB | $49.12 | $80.94 | $1.15 | 67.1% | 36.7% |
| WU | $12.77 | $16.40 | $0.50 | 32.3% | 36.7% |
| Totals | 43.7% | 36.7% | |||
| 2/1/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $450.60 | $500.66 | $8.75 | 13.1% | 21.1% |
| GA | $6.10 | $11.01 | $0.65 | 91.2% | 21.1% |
| STRZA | $16.06 | $27.98 | $0.00 | 74.2% | 21.1% |
| CA | $25.07 | $32.08 | $1.00 | 32.0% | 21.1% |
| NUS | $41.94 | $116.59 | $1.20 | 180.8% | 21.1% |
| Totals | 78.3% | 21.1% | |||
| 5/6/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| KLIC | $11.40 | $14.44 | $0.00 | 26.7% | 18.9% |
| CYOU | $29.24 | $28.02 | $0.00 | -4.2% | 18.9% |
| RDA | $9.74 | $16.79 | $0.10 | 73.5% | 18.9% |
| NVDA | $13.85 | $18.43 | $0.32 | 35.4% | 18.9% |
| CF | $183.97 | $243.22 | $2.80 | 33.7% | 18.9% |
| Totals | 33.0% | 18.9% | |||
| 8/15/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CF | $187.26 | $247.43 | $4.50 | 34.5% | 19.4% |
| FLR | $66.06 | $73.03 | $0.53 | 11.4% | 19.4% |
| AGX | $15.60 | $36.71 | $0.75 | 140.1% | 19.4% |
| KLIC | $11.29 | $14.26 | $0.00 | 26.3% | 19.4% |
| RPXC | $15.92 | $15.09 | $0.00 | -5.2% | 19.4% |
| Totals | 41.4% | 19.4% | |||
| 11/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $17.22 | $19.21 | $0.00 | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| ATVI | $17.71 | $20.10 | $0.20 | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| GA | $9.04 | $11.90 | $0.23 | 34.2% | 14.5% |
| RPXC | $17.04 | $13.91 | $0.00 | -18.4% | 14.5% |
| SYNA | $48.01 | $61.90 | $0.00 | 28.9% | 14.5% |
| Totals | 14.2% | 14.5% | |||
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ATVI | $17.13 | $20.90 | $0.20 | 23.1% | 12.9% |
| KLAC | $61.47 | $61.47 | $18.40 | 29.9% | 12.9% |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $12.35 | $0.00 | -23.9% | 12.9% |
| SNDK | $69.55 | $75.91 | $0.83 | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| WNR | $39.11 | $37.13 | $3.04 | 2.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 8.5% | 12.9% | |||
| 5/6/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $19.57 | $23.27 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.41 | $1.00 | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| CSCO | $22.79 | $28.89 | $0.78 | 30.2% | 12.9% |
| NSR | $25.82 | $30.69 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| RCII | $28.78 | $31.77 | $0.94 | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 12.9% | |||
| 8/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $24.40 | $28.95 | $0.80 | 21.9% | 8.8% |
| AGX | $36.71 | $40.69 | $0.70 | 12.7% | 8.8% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $25.11 | $0.87 | 21.9% | 8.8% |
| BRCD | $9.34 | $10.15 | $0.15 | 10.3% | 8.8% |
| CBI | $58.25 | $51.70 | $0.21 | -10.9% | 8.8% |
| Totals | 11.2% | 8.8% | |||
| 11/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FLR | $64.80 | $47.46 | $0.84 | -25.5% | 0.8% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $80.03 | $0.00 | 108.1% | 0.8% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $50.69 | $1.46 | -27.9% | 0.8% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $51.46 | $0.06 | 322.6% | 0.8% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.07 | $0.00 | -30.2% | 0.8% |
| Totals | 69.4% | 0.8% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $19.76 | $0.00 | -29.4% | -2.6% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $45.34 | $1.86 | -24.8% | -2.6% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $44.90 | $1.53 | -27.4% | -2.6% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $10.87 | $0.00 | -50.7% | -2.6% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $19.95 | $0.05 | 60.8% | -2.6% |
| Totals | -14.3% | -2.6% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $38.23 | $0.14 | -23.8% | -0.9% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.87 | $0.00 | -30.4% | -0.9% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $30.46 | $0.80 | -19.7% | -0.9% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $50.87 | $0.00 | -18.3% | -0.9% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $15.51 | $0.00 | -34.0% | -0.9% |
| Totals | -25.2% | -0.9% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $17.45 | $0.00 | -6.5% | 5.3% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $11.75 | $0.00 | 25.8% | 5.3% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $31.20 | $0.94 | 11.0% | 5.3% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $21.37 | $0.56 | -13.3% | 5.3% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $19.19 | $0.39 | -2.8% | 5.3% |
| Totals | 2.8% | 5.3% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $24.25 | $0.00 | -28.7% | 8.1% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $53.39 | $0.00 | 54.9% | 8.1% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $19.46 | $2.75 | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $22.25 | $0.00 | -5.7% | 8.1% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.10 | $0.00 | 2.8% | 8.1% |
| Totals | 8.0% | 8.1% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $22.54 | $0.00 | 14.8% | 21.4% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $53.43 | $2.07 | 22.9% | 21.4% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.86 | $0.00 | -24.1% | 21.4% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $18.09 | $0.00 | 17.9% | 21.4% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $29.36 | $0.00 | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| Totals | 10.7% | 21.4% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $12.57 | $0.17 | 59.8% | 20.0% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $29.30 | $0.28 | -21.8% | 20.0% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $21.65 | $0.52 | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $46.91 | $0.90 | 24.1% | 20.0% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $122.84 | $0.00 | 13.8% | 20.0% |
| Totals | 19.1% | 20.0% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $31.84 | $1.10 | 5.6% | 14.6% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $9.62 | $0.38 | -49.5% | 14.6% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $66.79 | $2.70 | 27.0% | 14.6% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $20.40 | $0.00 | 22.3% | 14.6% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $72.81 | $1.98 | -5.7% | 14.6% |
| Totals | -0.1% | 14.6% | |||
| 11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MPAA | $26.55 | $25.51 | $0.00 | -3.9% | 20.3% |
| ATHM | $22.61 | $60.02 | $0.00 | 165.5% | 20.3% |
| AMGN | $145.14 | $170.13 | $3.15 | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| RHI | $43.23 | $53.51 | $0.94 | 26.0% | 20.3% |
| CA | $31.11 | $32.31 | $0.77 | 6.3% | 20.3% |
| Totals | 42.6% | 20.3% | |||
| 2/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AKRX | $19.10 | $30.00 | $5.43 | 85.5% | 24.7% |
| YY | $41.08 | $132.96 | $0.00 | 223.7% | 24.7% |
| KLAC | $85.11 | $109.80 | $2.26 | 31.7% | 24.7% |
| WNC | $17.65 | $25.83 | $0.24 | 47.7% | 24.7% |
| RGR | $52.75 | $52.95 | $1.36 | 3.0% | 24.7% |
| Totals | 74.9% | 24.7% | |||
| 5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| WSTC | $24.15 | $23.50 | $0.00 | -2.7% | 11.5% |
| TGNA | $25.75 | $19.83 | $0.28 | -21.9% | 11.5% |
| TIME | $15.05 | $18.50 | $0.08 | 23.5% | 11.5% |
| MSGN | $23.55 | $20.63 | $0.00 | -12.4% | 11.5% |
| QCOM | $54.93 | $50.32 | $2.28 | -4.2% | 11.5% |
| Totals | -3.6% | 11.5% | |||
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $556.55 | $5.08 | -5.0% | 17.8% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $22.72 | $0.00 | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| MD | $43.00 | $48.14 | $0.00 | 12.0% | 17.8% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $58.54 | $1.20 | 38.8% | 17.8% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $77.87 | $1.04 | 78.7% | 17.8% |
| Totals | 27.8% | 17.8% | |||
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $25.97 | $0.00 | 55.8% | 6.4% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $69.63 | $0.00 | -30.8% | 6.4% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $3.31 | $0.20 | -39.3% | 6.4% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $35.15 | $1.20 | -22.5% | 6.4% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $31.79 | $0.80 | 33.5% | 6.4% |
| Totals | -0.6% | 6.4% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $42.29 | $1.00 | -0.6% | -2.4% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $11.64 | $0.00 | -38.1% | -2.4% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $106.57 | $2.84 | -0.4% | -2.4% |
| THO | $136.33 | $65.11 | $1.52 | -51.1% | -2.4% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $44.99 | $2.00 | -46.4% | -2.4% |
| Totals | -27.3% | -2.4% |
So even though this one was a train wreck, you can see I have had more successes than failures. Here is how $100,000 (spread equally over first 4 tranches) would have grown since 2012:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| 4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
| 7/1/2018 | 68.20% | 273,125 | 204,921 |
| 10/1/2018 | 65.80% | 284,097 | 218,297 |
| 1/1/2019 | 39.77% | 228,246 | 188,479 |
| Current | 47.11% | 251,347 | 204,240 |
So while you can see that 2018 was pretty bad in total (from $291,114 to 228,246 (ok, really bad), we have started a nice recovery here in January. More on that tomorrow.
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