Sunday, July 09, 2017

July 2016 MFI Formula Tranche

July 2016 MFI Formula Tranche

Another year has come and gone.  Out with the old and in with the new.  Pretty funny, if you went back a year ago and read my blog about this tranche as it started - you would see a great amount of trepidation.

Brexit had just occurred.  The markets had just fallen quite a bit and people were saying it could spark a bear market.  I actually waited a few days beyond July 1st to start this tranche due to the turmoil.

Since then we have seen Trump get elected, allegations of the Russians influencing our presidential election and through all of that - my tranche finished up 26.7%. That is my best "formula" tranche ever, edging out April, which was also strong.

For those who do not read my blog regularly, I have two investment strategies of real money in Magic Formula Investing.  In each I have 4 tranches containing five stocks each, which I buy and hold for a year.  The Formula tranches are derived from the official screen, taking a subset of dividend stocks and then applying a random number generator.

At the end of this blog, I'll tell you my 5 new picks for tomorrow.  Here are all the formula tracnhes since I started this approach in October 2014:


10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52  $26.21  $0.50  13.5% -0.6%
BKE $45.55  $36.97  $3.68  -10.8% -0.6%
CA $27.87  $27.30  $1.00  1.5% -0.6%
GME $41.70  $41.21  $1.41  2.2% -0.6%
NUS $44.56  $41.28  $1.40  -4.2% -0.6%
Totals 0.5% -0.6%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83  $29.26  $1.00  -1.8% -0.3%
CSCO $28.36  $27.70  $0.82  0.6% -0.3%
RGR $34.81  $60.08  $1.10  75.7% -0.3%
GME $34.21  $28.71  $1.44  -11.9% -0.3%
IQNT $19.87  $17.78  $0.60  -7.5% -0.3%
Totals 11.0% -0.3%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99  $26.33  $0.80  -15.2% -1.1%
GME $37.69  $32.12  $1.45  -10.9% -1.1%
KING $15.85  $18.00  $0.00  13.6% -1.1%
NSU $3.43  $3.24  $0.16  -0.8% -1.1%
PPC $22.65  $25.40  $0.00  12.1% -1.1%
Totals -0.2% -1.1%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45  $25.51  $1.96  -40.9% -0.3%
CA $29.34  $31.53  $1.01  10.9% -0.3%
MSFT $44.42  $49.29  $1.39  14.1% -0.3%
QCOM $62.95  $53.45  $1.97  -12.0% -0.3%
VIAB $64.75  $40.81  $1.60  -34.5% -0.3%
Totals -12.5% -0.3%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83  $24.03  $1.98  -29.4% 13.6%
IQNT $21.96  $16.14  $0.60  -23.8% 13.6%
QCOM $53.45  $68.50  $2.02  31.9% 13.6%
CSCO $26.37  $31.72  $0.94  23.9% 13.6%
CA $27.30  $33.08  $1.01  24.9% 13.6%
Totals 5.5% 13.6%
12/31/15 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BBY $30.31  $42.67  $1.57  46.0% 12.1%
GME $28.34  $25.45  $1.48  -5.0% 12.1%
ILG $15.89  $18.17  $0.48  17.4% 12.1%
PPC $22.22  $19.14  $2.75  -1.5% 12.1%
VIAB $40.93  $35.40  $1.20  -10.6% 12.1%
Totals 9.3% 12.1%
4/1/16 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CALM $51.27  $37.55  $0.44  -25.9% 18.0%
HPQ $12.10  $17.88  $0.51  51.9% 18.0%
TIME $15.24  $19.35  $0.76  31.9% 18.0%
ILG $13.85  $20.96  $0.51  55.0% 18.0%
XPER $30.79  $33.95  $0.80  12.9% 18.0%
Totals 25.2% 18.0%
7/1/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ILG $16.76  $27.49  $0.54  67.2% 16.8%
VIAB $44.00  $33.57  $0.80  -21.9% 16.8%
CPLA $53.22  $85.60  $1.62  63.9% 16.8%
HRB $23.62  $30.91  $0.90  34.7% 16.8%
PBI $17.69  $15.10  $0.75  -10.4% 16.8%
Totals 26.7% 16.8%


So you can see the most recent 2 have been solid.  ILG was just great from day 1.  CPLA gathered a lot of steam when Trump was elected as I guess the market thought the scrutiny/criticism of for profit education would diminish.  HRB had all of its gains since February.


The Next Five

Recall my rules:
  • Official MFI screen 50 stocks over 100 m.
  • Subset of stocks with dividend 2.4% or greater and in the top 2/3 market cap of list.
  • I can then throw out one stock.
  • Then a random number generator to select my five stocks.

I will be increasing my $ commitment per stock by almost 40%.  This has been my approach on all my tranches as I am moving away from other investing approaches and I have money coming from other sources.

Here are the stocks post screen:


Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 HRB  6,499   31.37   0.96  3.1%
2 BKE  850   17.40   1.00  5.7%
3 CSCO  154,438   30.90   1.16  3.8%
4 CJREF  2,166   10.62   0.87  8.2%
5 DIN  766   42.62   3.88  9.1%
6 GME  2,118   20.91   1.52  7.3%
7 GILD  90,510   69.25   2.08  3.0%
8 HPQ  29,206   17.35   0.53  3.1%
9 OMC  19,120   81.50   2.20  2.7%
10 PBI  2,785   14.95   0.75  5.0%
11 RGR  1,090   61.70   1.92  3.1%
12 SYNT  1,352   16.16   15.00  92.8%
13 VIAB  13,320   33.20   0.80  2.4%

I am not going to throw out any stocks.  Drum roll please.


Random # Stock
3 CSCO
11 RGR
12 SYNT
8 HPQ
6 GME

Well - I already own all 5 of these stocks, so nothing new.  CSCO is my #4 holding and SYNT is #9.  This will make CSCO #1 and SYNT #2 or #3.   Gulp!  But tomorrow I make the trades.



Later.  Scholss words of wisodom.


2 comments:

jb said...

As always, I appreciate your commitment and effort to documenting your MFI journey. It's gotten very 'lonely' lately with almost no posting to the Yahoo! or on Motley Fool MFI boards. Your Walter Schloss quote is appropriate, time will tell if our judgement (and continued commitment) was correct.
regards,
j

Marsh_Gerda said...

thanks for the note. It may seem "lonely", but I actually have more visitors to my blog of late than in a long time. So people must be curious.