Saturday, July 29, 2017

Weekend Update 7/29/17

Weekend Update

Greetings from Eden Roc - Miami Beach.  Just disembarked from a 7 day Western Caribbean cruise.  Hopefully I did not gain too much weight.  I probably enjoyed Roatan Island off Honduras the most.

You have found your way to the MFI Diary, a blog where I let readers know my thoughts and performance on real life, real dollar Magic Formula Portfolios (based of course on "The Little Book The Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt.  I also spend some effort tracking hypothetical portfolios based on downloads from the official website going back to January 2006.

Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Past Week

Overall I was up a bit on the week, although my magic formula portfolios did struggle.


Component YTD
Overall +9.37%
Select +12.31%
Formula +7.68%
Miscellaneous -2.94%
Dividend +13.22%
R3K +10.86%
MFI Index +1.75%


So year to date, I am up 9.4%. And given that I am trying to be "safe" with a decent cash component, I am happy.  Interestingly, my Dividend portfolio has done the best - really helped by TK being up about 85%.  Overall MFI Index is really struggling, so I am actually satisfied with my MFI results.  I have not show MFI Index results back to 2006 for a while, so here they are:


Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 12.26% 12.07% 97.95% 98.15%
2015 0.38% -8.95% 98.33% 89.37%
2016 12.50% 13.19% 110.62% 101.16%
2017 10.86% 1.75% 122.64% 102.93%

You can see it is a struggle and in 11 years we are losing by about 22 percentage points.

Here are how my MFI stocks did for the week:


Portfolio Stock Last Week Current Dividend Change
Formula SYNT  19.40   19.73   -    1.7%
Formula CSCO  31.84   31.52   -    -1.0%
Formula HPQ  19.15   19.17   -    0.1%
Formula GILD  73.76   75.94   -    3.0%
Formula GME  20.78   21.50   -    3.5%
Formula CA  34.42   30.94   -    -10.1%
Formula TGNA  22.72   23.45   -    3.2%
Formula OMC  82.73   78.90   -    -4.6%
Formula CPLA  87.95   70.10   -    -20.3%
Formula BKE  16.75   16.85   -    0.6%
Formula RGR  57.45   56.90   -    -1.0%
Formula LDOS  53.44   53.60   -    0.3%
Formula PBI  15.53   15.48   -    -0.3%

On the formula side, pretty tough sledding. CPLA earnings disappointed - I was lucky to sell one of my two positions July 8th!  Then CA talks with BMC seem to be cooling off.  Their drop in price to 30.94 seems overdone to me.


Portfolio Stock Last Week Current Dividend Change
Select ATHM  47.60   48.71   -    2.3%
 Select  MSGN  21.15   21.85   -    3.3%
 Select  AKRX  33.60   33.63   -    0.1%
 Select  YY  67.59   71.64   -    6.0%
 Select  AMGN  180.21   174.54   -    -3.1%
 Select  RHI  48.42   44.82   -    -7.4%
 Select  CA  34.42   30.94   -    -10.1%
 Select  MPAA  27.68   27.73   -    0.2%
 Select  WNC  22.68   19.03   -    -16.1%
 Select  QCOM  53.84   52.88   -    -1.8%
 Select  KLAC  99.89   94.40   -    -5.5%
 Select  RGR  57.45   56.90   -    -1.0%
 Select  WSTC  23.32   23.35   -    0.1%
 Select  TGNA  22.72   23.45   -    3.2%
 Select  TIME  13.85   14.50   -    4.7%
 Select  VLO  67.78   66.69   -    -1.6%
 Select  CSCO  31.84   31.52   -    -1.0%
 Select  GILD  73.76   75.94  3.0%
 Select  GNC  8.89   10.17  14.4%

On the Select side, CA got the same whacking.  GNC was GREAT, but it is my smallest position of all (recall these are descending order).  WNC also had poor earnings (as did KLAC and RHI), so I am taking a few hits while cruising.  Oh well.

MFI Select

As the name suggests, this is my MFI portfolio where I allow myself free reign to pick whatever "value" stocks I want.  It can be from the official website screens or from my own workbook where I create a top 200 at least once a month.  I rebooted this approach in August 2012 (I licked my wounds in August 2011 when I stopped for a year and re-considered my strategy/approach).

Here is how MFI Select has down month by month (assuming I began with $100,000):


Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%  99,765   101,965 
1/1/2013 -1.78%  102,798   104,575 
2/1/2013 -2.26%  102,594   104,856 
3/1/2013 -2.23%  102,881   105,114 
4/1/2013 -0.43%  106,804   107,234 
5/1/2013 2.00%  110,423   108,423 
6/1/2013 4.75%  115,831   111,085 
7/1/2013 4.29%  114,888   110,597 
8/1/2013 6.91%  124,799   117,889 
9/1/2013 10.46%  124,536   114,079 
10/1/2013 19.67%  138,655   118,990 
11/1/2013 19.75%  143,514   123,764 
12/1/2013 23.70%  150,105   126,405 
1/1/2014 26.63%  157,138   130,503 
2/1/2014 24.70%  150,619   125,918 
3/1/2014 25.66%  158,116   132,458 
4/1/2014 30.38%  162,991   132,616 
5/1/2014 29.65%  162,428   132,779 
6/1/2014 31.44%  167,001   135,559 
7/1/2014 39.23%  177,971   138,740 
8/1/2014 31.13%  167,054   135,922 
9/1/2014 35.90%  177,792   141,892 
10/1/2014 29.38%  168,321   138,944 
11/1/2014 26.14%  168,810   142,666 
12/1/2014 30.22%  176,420   146,198 
1/1/2015 28.17%  174,306   146,140 
2/1/2015 20.63%  162,833   142,201 
3/1/2015 25.15%  175,476   150,324 
4/1/2015 29.95%  178,565   148,612 
5/1/2015 37.31%  186,655   149,348 
6/1/2015 51.53%  202,897   151,371 
7/1/2015 62.69%  211,437   148,743 
8/1/2015 40.75%  192,117   151,369 
9/1/2015 36.41%  178,603   142,195 
10/1/2015 43.12%  181,175   138,052 
11/1/2015 69.02%  217,959   148,936 
12/1/2015 73.49%  223,435   149,946 
1/1/2016 63.33%  209,514   146,186 
2/1/2016 49.49%  187,428   137,934 
3/1/2016 56.48%  194,415   137,934 
4/1/2016 47.34%  195,770   148,430 
5/1/2016 46.38%  194,301   147,923 
6/1/2016 51.44%  201,999   150,558 
7/1/2016 50.41%  201,092   150,680 
8/1/2016 52.72%  207,223   154,501 
9/1/2016 67.04%  222,481   155,446 
10/1/2016 42.98%  198,563   155,582 
11/1/2016 41.86%  195,726   153,863 
12/1/2016 45.92%  202,775   156,859 
1/1/2017 45.60%  209,503   163,936 
2/1/2017 45.20%  212,330   167,146 
3/1/2017 48.80%  222,583   173,829 
4/1/2017 55.70%  229,473   173,735 
5/1/2017 55.80%  231,497   175,712 
6/1/2017 53.40%  230,599   177,203 
7/1/2017 60.28%  239,060   178,782 
Current 58.03%  240,306   182,274 

Here are the four tranches, just a couple weeks to go on August 15th.


8/15/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CSCO  $31.20  $31.52  $1.10  4.6% 15.1%
 GNC  $19.79  $10.17  $0.38  -46.7% 15.1%
 VLO  $54.73  $66.69  $2.00  25.5% 15.1%
 MSGN  $16.68  $21.85  $0.00  31.0% 15.1%
 GILD  $79.33  $75.94  $1.98  -1.8% 15.1%
Totals 2.5% 15.1%
11/15/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 MPAA  $26.55  $27.73  $0.00  4.4% 14.9%
 ATHM  $22.61  $48.71  $0.00  115.4% 14.9%
 AMGN  $145.14  $174.54  $2.00  21.6% 14.9%
 RHI  $43.23  $44.82  $0.70  5.3% 14.9%
 CA  $31.11  $30.94  $0.51  1.1% 14.9%
Totals 29.6% 14.9%
2/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 AKRX  $19.10  $33.63  $0.00  76.1% 8.9%
 YY  $41.08  $71.64  $0.00  74.4% 8.9%
 KLAC  $85.11  $94.40  $1.08  12.2% 8.9%
 WNC  $17.65  $19.03  $0.06  8.2% 8.9%
 RGR  $52.75  $56.90  $0.92  9.6% 8.9%
Totals 36.1% 8.9%
5/6/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 WSTC  $24.15  $23.35  $0.00  -3.3% 3.3%
 TGNA  $25.75  $23.45  $0.07  -8.7% 3.3%
 TIME  $15.05  $14.50  $0.04  -3.4% 3.3%
 MSGN  $23.55  $21.85  $0.00  -7.2% 3.3%
 QCOM  $54.93  $52.88  $0.57  -2.7% 3.3%
Totals -5.1% 3.3%

You can see GNC is still down 46% despite the big week.  ATHM and YY continue to soar.  May is a mess.  Five bad picks... but at least no stinkers (yet).


Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment  25,000   25,000   25,000   25,000   100,000 
Current Tranche 2.5% 29.6% 36.1% -5.1% 16.7%
Previous Tranche 2.8% 8.0% 10.7% 19.1% 8.9%
Tranche -2 11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 10.3%
Tranche -3 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
Tranche -4 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 89.1% 289.4% 149.7% 33.0% 140.3%
Current Balance  47,271   97,353   62,429   33,253   240,306 
R3K Current Tranche 15.1% 14.9% 8.9% 3.3% 10.5%
R3K Overall Gain 92.3% 95.8% 76.2% 64.8% 82.3%
R3K Balance  48,075   48,961   44,041   41,196   182,274 
Annualized IRR 13.7% 33.5% 22.6% 7.0% 19.2%

Still above 19% per year!.

MFI Formula

Here I also have 4 tranches of 5 stocks.  But these are picked by formula and random number generator.    I have been using this approach since October 2014.  It has been lukewarm in success thus far - although it has worked very well in my backtesting.


Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%  100,000   100,000 
11/1/2014 1.63%  102,288   100,658 
12/1/2014 0.30%  101,375   101,075 
1/1/2015 -0.33%  100,664   100,995 
2/1/2015 1.67%  101,281   99,611 
3/1/2015 3.62%  106,073   102,454 
4/1/2015 5.09%  106,781   101,695 
5/1/2015 5.78%  107,859   102,077 
6/1/2015 5.08%  108,213   103,134 
7/1/2015 4.82%  106,423   101,604 
8/1/2015 3.71%  107,112   103,404 
9/1/2015 4.38%  101,523   97,139 
10/1/2015 6.39%  100,703   94,312 
11/1/2015 2.93%  104,835   101,907 
12/1/2015 -3.48%  99,443   102,926 
1/1/2016 -3.36%  96,830   100,012 
2/1/2016 -0.72%  93,797   94,367 
3/1/2016 4.07%  98,588   94,367 
4/1/2016 0.34%  102,371   101,548 
5/1/2016 -1.91%  99,774   101,200 
6/1/2016 -0.42%  103,145   103,568 
7/1/2016 -0.19%  103,022   103,216 
8/1/2016 2.56%  109,419   106,857 
9/1/2016 -0.34%  106,704   107,048 
10/1/2016 -0.85%  106,377   107,230 
11/1/2016 0.42%  105,421   105,003 
12/1/2016 1.62%  110,705   109,088 
1/1/2017 1.57%  113,406   111,832 
2/1/2017 1.32%  114,809   113,486 
3/1/2017 -5.09%  112,930   118,024 
4/1/2017 -1.86%  116,227   118,091 
5/1/2017 1.11%  120,403   119,296 
6/1/2017 -2.65%  117,824   120,472 
7/1/2017 -2.40%  119,144   121,545 
Current -1.75%  122,154   123,904 

10/3/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CPLA  $58.15  $70.10  $1.23  22.7% 15.9%
 LDOS  $43.01  $53.60  $0.96  26.9% 15.9%
 GME  $27.70  $21.50  $1.13  -18.3% 15.9%
 PBI  $18.15  $15.48  $0.56  -11.6% 15.9%
 CSCO  $31.72  $31.52  $1.10  2.8% 15.9%
Totals 4.5% 15.9%
12/30/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 GILD  $71.69  $75.94  $1.04  7.4% 10.7%
 HPQ  $15.00  $19.17  $0.40  30.5% 10.7%
 TGNA  $21.33  $23.45  $0.21  10.9% 10.7%
 CA  $31.99  $30.94  $0.51  -1.7% 10.7%
 SYNT  $19.79  $19.73  $0.00  -0.3% 10.7%
Totals 9.4% 10.7%
4/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 BKE  $18.45  $16.85  $0.50  -6.0% 5.0%
 CSCO  $33.76  $31.52  $0.58  -4.9% 5.0%
 GILD  $67.50  $75.94  $0.52  13.3% 5.0%
 OMC  $85.53  $78.90  $0.55  -7.1% 5.0%
 SYNT  $16.76  $19.73  $0.00  17.7% 5.0%
Totals 2.6% 5.0%
7/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CSCO  $30.98  $31.52  $0.00  1.7% 1.9%
 GME  $20.95  $21.50  $0.00  2.6% 1.9%
 HPQ  $17.60  $19.17  $0.00  8.9% 1.9%
 RGR  $60.70  $56.90  $0.00  -6.3% 1.9%
 SYNT  $16.21  $19.73  $0.00  21.7% 1.9%
Totals 5.7% 1.9%

The recent July picks look good!  The eight stocks that Mr Random did not pick are up about 1.7%.  So I appear to have gotten a favorable draw.


Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment  249,820   249,939   250,180   249,728   999,667 
Current Tranche 4.5% 9.4% 2.6% 5.7% 5.6%
Previous Tranche 5.5% 9.3% 25.2% 26.7% 16.1%
Tranche -2 0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.3%
MFI Overall Gain 10.7% 32.6% 28.1% 17.3% 22.2%
Current Balance  276,664   331,515   320,487   292,877   1,221,543 
R3K Current Tranche 15.9% 10.7% 5.0% 1.9% 8.4%
R3K Overall Gain 30.9% 23.8% 22.5% 18.6% 23.9%
R3K Balance  326,945   309,365   306,449   296,275   1,239,034 
Annualized IRR 3.7% 11.6% 11.2% 8.0% 8.6%

Dividend and Miscellaneous Portfolios

Gad, I can't believe my dividend portfolio is up over 13%.  This past week I actually got it to 100% invested, so no cash.


Stock Initial Current Div/Sh Gain/Loss Yield
 FDEU   18.40   18.94   0.24  4.2% 7.7%
 LADR   13.01   13.16   -    1.2% 9.1%
 TK   5.24   9.72   0.06  86.4% 2.3%
 JQC   8.20   8.68   0.54  12.5% 7.3%
 KCLI   49.32   49.00   -    -0.6% 2.4%
 ISBC   13.15   13.10   -    -0.3% 2.4%
 SBRA   23.53   23.25   0.29  0.0% 7.4%
 NRZ   16.22   16.04   0.38  1.2% 12.5%
 PSXP   48.20   49.85   0.62  4.7% 4.9%
 TGONF   10.47   13.05   1.97  43.4% 5.3%
 DHF   3.34   3.50   0.07  6.8% 9.3%
 RILY   13.85   18.95   -    36.8% 1.7%
 DSL   18.49   21.19   2.01  25.5% 8.5%
 FSFR   8.92   8.40   -    -5.8% 9.0%
 O   25.02   57.20   20.25  209.6% 4.4%
 OIBAX   5.09   5.95   2.39  63.9% 3.9%

I did add to LADR and KLCI this past week.  If I do any more adding, it may be to some of the smaller ones near the bottom.  My push continues to be to build retirement income as my retirement looms very close.

I have been increasing my Miscellaneous holdings.  I am trying to pick stocks that have limited downside with some upside.  My three largest holdings (after BAC warrants) are:

  1. NXPI - QCOM puts a floor of $110 (IMHO). But there is upside should shareholders demand more
  2. NYRT - again, they are liquidating and net asset value is $9.25.  Trading at 8.65, there may be upside on NAV.
  3. WLFC - trading around $25 with a NAV over $31, so I think downside is limited assuming the continue to make money.

That is it, adios from Miami!


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