Friday, July 14, 2017

Weekend Update 7/14/17

Weekend Update

The markets have been showing a little pop this week on the bad news is good news adage.  As growth is more and more anemic, it is less and less likely we get interest rates raised.  And that is good, right?

You have found your way to the MFI Diary, a blog where I let readers know my thoughts and performance on real life, real dollar Magic Formula Portfolios (based of course on "The Little Book The Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt.  I also spend some effort tracking hypothetical portfolios based on downloads from the official website going back to January 2006.

Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Getting ready for my summer vacation - head next week down to Miami to start a 7 day cruise.  I may not even blog.  I have my summer reading all set:


  1. American Gods
  2. The Leftovers
  3. The Force
  4. Beneath a Scarlet Sky
  5. His Bloody Project
  6. A Gentleman in Moscow
  7. Dead Companies Walking
  8. Red Notice

I am about 20% into American Gods - very good so far.

Past Week

Dow is at an all time high.  There seems so much euphoria.  I am getting more defensive.  I am at all-time high in my cash balance.  I have shifted $ from speculative stocks to dividend stocks.  Then I am buying positions that have only moderate upside, but limited downside (at least in my view).


I continue to underperform the market.  I am tempted to not even show this anymore.  I am trying to beat the market with my two MFI portfolios - but my cash position, dividend/safety focus make my overall results unlikely to beat the market as long as market is going up.  I am 57 and I am not really going for glory in my investing, but rather want to make sure I preserve capital.



Component YTD
Overall +8.05%
Select +13.84%
Formula +5.44%
Miscellaneous -2.58%
Dividend +9.58%
R3K +10.29%
MFI Index +2.89%


You can see the MFI Index is struggling and GARIX (Gotham mutual fund) is up 2.4%.  So I am pleased with performance of my Select and Formula portfolios as in this table they also have a 20%ish cash component.


MFI Select

As the name suggests, this is my MFI portfolio where I allow myself free reign to pick whatever "value" stocks I want.  It can be from the official website screens or from my own workbook where I create a top 200 at least once a month.  I rebooted this approach in August 2012 (I licked my wounds in August 2011 when I stopped for a year and re-considered my strategy/approach).

Here is how MFI Select has down month by month (assuming I began with $100,000):


Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%  99,765   101,965 
1/1/2013 -1.78%  102,798   104,575 
2/1/2013 -2.26%  102,594   104,856 
3/1/2013 -2.23%  102,881   105,114 
4/1/2013 -0.43%  106,804   107,234 
5/1/2013 2.00%  110,423   108,423 
6/1/2013 4.75%  115,831   111,085 
7/1/2013 4.29%  114,888   110,597 
8/1/2013 6.91%  124,799   117,889 
9/1/2013 10.46%  124,536   114,079 
10/1/2013 19.67%  138,655   118,990 
11/1/2013 19.75%  143,514   123,764 
12/1/2013 23.70%  150,105   126,405 
1/1/2014 26.63%  157,138   130,503 
2/1/2014 24.70%  150,619   125,918 
3/1/2014 25.66%  158,116   132,458 
4/1/2014 30.38%  162,991   132,616 
5/1/2014 29.65%  162,428   132,779 
6/1/2014 31.44%  167,001   135,559 
7/1/2014 39.23%  177,971   138,740 
8/1/2014 31.13%  167,054   135,922 
9/1/2014 35.90%  177,792   141,892 
10/1/2014 29.38%  168,321   138,944 
11/1/2014 26.14%  168,810   142,666 
12/1/2014 30.22%  176,420   146,198 
1/1/2015 28.17%  174,306   146,140 
2/1/2015 20.63%  162,833   142,201 
3/1/2015 25.15%  175,476   150,324 
4/1/2015 29.95%  178,565   148,612 
5/1/2015 37.31%  186,655   149,348 
6/1/2015 51.53%  202,897   151,371 
7/1/2015 62.69%  211,437   148,743 
8/1/2015 40.75%  192,117   151,369 
9/1/2015 36.41%  178,603   142,195 
10/1/2015 43.12%  181,175   138,052 
11/1/2015 69.02%  217,959   148,936 
12/1/2015 73.49%  223,435   149,946 
1/1/2016 63.33%  209,514   146,186 
2/1/2016 49.49%  187,428   137,934 
3/1/2016 56.48%  194,415   137,934 
4/1/2016 47.34%  195,770   148,430 
5/1/2016 46.38%  194,301   147,923 
6/1/2016 51.44%  201,999   150,558 
7/1/2016 50.41%  201,092   150,680 
8/1/2016 52.72%  207,223   154,501 
9/1/2016 67.04%  222,481   155,446 
10/1/2016 42.98%  198,563   155,582 
11/1/2016 41.86%  195,726   153,863 
12/1/2016 45.92%  202,775   156,859 
1/1/2017 45.60%  209,503   163,936 
2/1/2017 45.20%  212,330   167,146 
3/1/2017 48.80%  222,583   173,829 
4/1/2017 55.70%  229,473   173,735 
5/1/2017 55.80%  231,497   175,712 
6/1/2017 53.40%  230,599   177,203 
7/1/2017 60.28%  239,060   178,782 
Current 62.66%  243,997   181,337 


So to go in what is now almost 5 years from $100,000 to almost $244,000 is good.  And you can see just in 2017 it has gone from 209,503 to the 244,000.  A $34,000 gain - that is pushing 15%.

Here are the 4 tranches of 5 stocks each:


8/15/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CSCO  $31.20  $31.42  $1.10  4.2% 14.5%
 GNC  $19.79  $8.04  $0.38  -57.5% 14.5%
 VLO  $54.73  $68.04  $2.00  28.0% 14.5%
 MSGN  $16.68  $23.00  $0.00  37.9% 14.5%
 GILD  $79.33  $70.57  $1.98  -8.5% 14.5%
Totals 0.8% 14.5%
11/15/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 MPAA  $26.55  $28.07  $0.00  5.7% 14.3%
 ATHM  $22.61  $47.48  $0.00  110.0% 14.3%
 AMGN  $145.14  $177.13  $2.00  23.4% 14.3%
 RHI  $43.23  $49.05  $0.70  15.1% 14.3%
 CA  $31.11  $34.48  $0.51  12.5% 14.3%
Totals 33.3% 14.3%
2/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 AKRX  $19.10  $33.65  $0.00  76.2% 8.3%
 YY  $41.08  $63.79  $0.00  55.3% 8.3%
 KLAC  $85.11  $99.64  $1.08  18.3% 8.3%
 WNC  $17.65  $22.51  $0.06  27.9% 8.3%
 RGR  $52.75  $60.20  $0.92  15.9% 8.3%
Totals 38.7% 8.3%
5/6/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 WSTC  $24.15  $23.33  $0.00  -3.4% 2.8%
 TGNA  $25.75  $22.70  $0.07  -11.6% 2.8%
 TIME  $15.05  $14.10  $0.04  -6.0% 2.8%
 MSGN  $23.55  $23.00  $0.00  -2.3% 2.8%
 QCOM  $54.93  $56.81  $0.57  4.5% 2.8%
Totals -3.8% 2.8%


So two dud tranches, but two very good tranches.  A 50% success rate will work so long as you get some big wins.  Of course I harp all the time that my approach is to avoid "stinkers", meaning stocks that end up declining 30% or more.  These are very prevalent in MFI screens (over 10%) and my goal is to reduce that failure rate to more like 5%.  You will note just one stinker: GNC in August.  But it illustrates how a single stinker can really ruin a 5 stock tranche.

Here is overall table:


Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment  25,000   25,000   25,000   25,000   100,000 
Current Tranche 0.8% 33.3% 38.7% -3.8% 18.5%
Previous Tranche 2.8% 8.0% 10.7% 19.1% 8.9%
Tranche -2 11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 10.3%
Tranche -3 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
Tranche -4 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 86.0% 300.7% 154.5% 34.8% 144.0%
Current Balance  46,488   100,176   63,631   33,702   243,997 
R3K Current Tranche 14.5% 14.3% 8.3% 2.8% 10.0%
R3K Overall Gain 91.3% 94.8% 75.3% 63.9% 81.3%
R3K Balance  47,829   48,710   43,814   40,983   181,337 
Annualized IRR 13.4% 34.7% 23.4% 7.4% 19.7%


Still at that snappy (and feeling unsustainable) annualized IRR over 19%.

Finally,  here are stocks during the week:


Stock Last Week Current Dividend Change
ATHM  45.97   47.48   -    3.3%
MSGN  22.75   23.00   -    1.1%
AKRX  33.55   33.65   -    0.3%
YY  56.83   63.79   -    12.2%
AMGN  171.43   177.13   -    3.3%
RHI  49.17   49.05   -    -0.2%
CA  34.34   34.48   -    0.4%
MPAA  27.84   28.07   -    0.8%
WNC  22.06   22.51   -    2.0%
QCOM  55.35   56.81   -    2.6%
KLAC  94.57   99.64   -    5.4%
RGR  61.70   60.20   -    -2.4%
WSTC  23.31   23.33   -    0.1%
TGNA  23.00   22.70   -    -1.3%
TIME  14.00   14.10   -    0.7%
VLO  68.18   68.04   -    -0.2%
CSCO  30.90   31.42   -    1.7%
GILD  69.25   70.57  1.9%
GNC  8.33   8.04  -3.5%
Average 1.5%


My two Chinese stocks, YY and ATHM continue to be superb.


MFI Formula

Here I also have 4 tranches of 5 stocks.  But these are picked by formula and random number generator.  I actually started a new tranche this past week.  I have been using this approach since October 2014.  It has been lukewarm in success thus far - although it has worked very well in my backtesting.


Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%  100,000   100,000 
11/1/2014 1.63%  102,288   100,658 
12/1/2014 0.30%  101,375   101,075 
1/1/2015 -0.33%  100,664   100,995 
2/1/2015 1.67%  101,281   99,611 
3/1/2015 3.62%  106,073   102,454 
4/1/2015 5.09%  106,781   101,695 
5/1/2015 5.78%  107,859   102,077 
6/1/2015 5.08%  108,213   103,134 
7/1/2015 4.82%  106,423   101,604 
8/1/2015 3.71%  107,112   103,404 
9/1/2015 4.38%  101,523   97,139 
10/1/2015 6.39%  100,703   94,312 
11/1/2015 2.93%  104,835   101,907 
12/1/2015 -3.48%  99,443   102,926 
1/1/2016 -3.36%  96,830   100,012 
2/1/2016 -0.72%  93,797   94,367 
3/1/2016 4.07%  98,588   94,367 
4/1/2016 0.34%  102,371   101,548 
5/1/2016 -1.91%  99,774   101,200 
6/1/2016 -0.42%  103,145   103,568 
7/1/2016 -0.19%  103,022   103,216 
8/1/2016 2.56%  109,419   106,857 
9/1/2016 -0.34%  106,704   107,048 
10/1/2016 -0.85%  106,377   107,230 
11/1/2016 0.42%  105,421   105,003 
12/1/2016 1.62%  110,705   109,088 
1/1/2017 1.57%  113,406   111,832 
2/1/2017 1.32%  114,809   113,486 
3/1/2017 -5.09%  112,930   118,024 
4/1/2017 -1.86%  116,227   118,091 
5/1/2017 1.11%  120,403   119,296 
6/1/2017 -2.65%  117,824   120,472 
7/1/2017 -2.40%  119,144   121,545 
Current -3.65%  119,619   123,265 


10/3/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CPLA  $58.15  $86.50  $1.23  50.9% 15.3%
 LDOS  $43.01  $53.24  $0.96  26.0% 15.3%
 GME  $27.70  $21.02  $1.13  -20.0% 15.3%
 PBI  $18.15  $15.48  $0.56  -11.6% 15.3%
 CSCO  $31.72  $31.42  $1.10  2.5% 15.3%
Totals 9.6% 15.3%
12/30/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 GILD  $71.69  $70.57  $1.04  -0.1% 10.2%
 HPQ  $15.00  $18.42  $0.40  25.5% 10.2%
 TGNA  $21.33  $22.70  $0.21  7.4% 10.2%
 CA  $31.99  $34.48  $0.51  9.4% 10.2%
 SYNT  $19.79  $16.72  $0.00  -15.5% 10.2%
Totals 5.3% 10.2%
4/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 BKE  $18.45  $16.60  $0.50  -7.3% 4.4%
 CSCO  $33.76  $31.42  $0.58  -5.2% 4.4%
 GILD  $67.50  $70.57  $0.52  5.3% 4.4%
 OMC  $85.53  $81.28  $0.55  -4.3% 4.4%
 SYNT  $16.76  $16.72  $0.00  -0.2% 4.4%
Totals -2.4% 4.4%

7/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CSCO  $30.98  $31.42  $0.00  1.4% 1.4%
 GME  $20.95  $21.02  $0.00  0.3% 1.4%
 HPQ  $17.60  $18.42  $0.00  4.7% 1.4%
 RGR  $60.70  $60.20  $0.00  -0.8% 1.4%
 SYNT  $16.21  $16.72  $0.00  3.1% 1.4%
Totals 1.7% 1.4%


You can see the newest tranche (says 7/1, but actually 7/10) is off to decent start.  But other three open tranches are trailing.


Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment  249,820   249,939   250,180   249,728   999,667 
Current Tranche 9.6% 5.3% -2.4% 1.7% 2.9%
Previous Tranche 5.5% 9.3% 25.2% 26.7% 16.6%
Tranche -2 0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.3%
MFI Overall Gain 16.1% 27.8% 21.9% 12.8% 19.7%
Current Balance  290,071   319,316   305,005   281,795   1,196,187 
R3K Current Tranche 15.3% 10.2% 4.4% 1.4% 7.8%
R3K Overall Gain 30.2% 23.1% 21.9% 18.0% 23.3%
R3K Balance  325,267   307,770   304,863   294,735   1,232,635 
Annualized IRR 5.5% 10.1% 9.0% 6.1% 7.7%


Stock Last Week Current Dividend Change
SYNT  16.16   16.72   -    3.5%
CSCO  30.90   31.42   -    1.7%
HPQ  17.35   18.42   -    6.2%
GILD  69.25   70.57   -    1.9%
GME  20.91   21.02   -    0.5%
CA  34.34   34.48   -    0.4%
TGNA  23.00   22.70   -    -1.3%
OMC  81.50   81.28   -    -0.3%
CPLA  85.05   86.50   -    1.7%
BKE  17.40   16.60   0.25  -3.2%
RGR  61.70   60.20   -    -2.4%
LDOS  52.07   53.24   -    2.2%
PBI  14.95   15.48   -    3.5%
 -   
Average 1.1%


SYNT and CSCO are in multiple tranches and are becoming more "important" to my results.


Dividend and Miscellaneous

As I mentioned at outset, I am pulling back my $ in Misc, which is probably for the best as it is the worst performer for me.  I am increasing $ in dividend and I did add some new names.


Stock Initial Current Div/Sh Gain/Loss Yield
 FDEU   18.40   18.84   0.24  4% 7.7%
 JQC   8.20   8.50   0.54  10% 7.4%
 ISBC   13.15   13.14   -    0% 2.4%
 TK   5.24   7.09   -    35% 3.1%
 SBRA   23.53   23.24   0.29  0% 7.4%
 KCLI   49.19   50.34   -    2% 2.4%
 PSXP   48.20   51.22   -    6% 4.6%
 NRZ   16.22   15.52   0.38  -2% 12.9%
 TGONF   10.47   12.95   1.97  42% 5.3%
 LADR   12.88   13.15   -    2% 9.1%
 DHF   3.34   3.49   0.07  6% 9.3%
 RILY   13.85   19.25   -    39% 1.7%
 DSL   18.49   20.85   1.86  23% 8.6%
 FSFR   8.92   8.76   -    -2% 8.7%
 O   25.02   56.25   20.25  206% 4.5%
 OIBAX   5.09   5.86   2.39  62% 4.0%


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