Saturday, July 22, 2017

MFI Weekend Update 7/22/17 - Lite

MFI Weekend Update - Lite

On vacation in beautiful Coconut Grove outside Miami.  Thus this update will be short and sweet.  More tables, fewer words.  I need to go get some Panther coffee!

You have found your way to the MFI Diary, a blog where I let readers know my thoughts and performance on real life, real dollar Magic Formula Portfolios (based of course on "The Little Book The Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt.  I also spend some effort tracking hypothetical portfolios based on downloads from the official website going back to January 2006.

Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Past Week

It was a very good week as I was up over 1%.  Here is where I stand year to date - keep in mind this includes a large cash component, while later table exclude the cash part:


Component YTD
Overall +9.27%
Select +13.28%
Formula +8.62%
Miscellaneous -2.20%
Dividend +10.90%
R3K +10.91%
MFI Index +2.42%


So overall, up over 9% on the year.  My two MFI portfolios, Select and Formula, are both doing well, even with cash component.  Here is how they each did during the week for the individual stocks:


Portfolio Stock Last Week Current Dividend Change
Formula SYNT  16.72   19.40   -    16.0%
Formula CSCO  31.42   31.84   -    1.3%
Formula HPQ  18.42   19.15   -    4.0%
Formula GILD  70.57   73.76   -    4.5%
Formula GME  21.02   20.78   -    -1.1%
Formula CA  34.48   34.42   -    -0.2%
Formula TGNA  22.70   22.72   -    0.1%
Formula OMC  81.28   82.73   -    1.8%
Formula CPLA  86.50   87.95   -    1.7%
Formula BKE  16.60   16.75   -    0.9%
Formula RGR  60.20   57.45   -    -4.6%
Formula LDOS  53.24   53.44   -    0.4%
Formula PBI  15.48   15.53   -    0.3%

So great week for SYNT, which is now my largest holding with the 16% spurt.


Portfolio Stock Last Week Current Dividend Change
Select ATHM  47.48   47.60   -    0.3%
 Select  MSGN  23.00   21.15   -    -8.0%
 Select  AKRX  33.65   33.60   -    -0.1%
 Select  YY  63.79   67.59   -    6.0%
 Select  AMGN  177.13   180.21   -    1.7%
 Select  RHI  49.05   48.42   -    -1.3%
 Select  CA  34.48   34.42   -    -0.2%
 Select  MPAA  28.07   27.68   -    -1.4%
 Select  WNC  22.51   22.68   -    0.8%
 Select  QCOM  56.81   53.84   -    -5.2%
 Select  KLAC  99.64   99.89   -    0.3%
 Select  RGR  60.20   57.45   -    -4.6%
 Select  WSTC  23.33   23.32   -    0.0%
 Select  TGNA  22.70   22.72   -    0.1%
 Select  TIME  14.10   13.85   -    -1.8%
 Select  VLO  68.04   67.78   -    -0.4%
 Select  CSCO  31.42   31.84   -    1.3%
 Select  GILD  70.57   73.76  4.5%
 Select  GNC  8.04   8.89  10.6%

On the Select side, hampered by MSGN struggles (seems no one wants to buy them).  GNC has been on fire, but is my smallest holding (these are in descending order).

MFI Select

As the name suggests, this is my MFI portfolio where I allow myself free reign to pick whatever "value" stocks I want.  It can be from the official website screens or from my own workbook where I create a top 200 at least once a month.  I rebooted this approach in August 2012 (I licked my wounds in August 2011 when I stopped for a year and re-considered my strategy/approach).

Here is how MFI Select has down month by month (assuming I began with $100,000):


Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%  99,765   101,965 
1/1/2013 -1.78%  102,798   104,575 
2/1/2013 -2.26%  102,594   104,856 
3/1/2013 -2.23%  102,881   105,114 
4/1/2013 -0.43%  106,804   107,234 
5/1/2013 2.00%  110,423   108,423 
6/1/2013 4.75%  115,831   111,085 
7/1/2013 4.29%  114,888   110,597 
8/1/2013 6.91%  124,799   117,889 
9/1/2013 10.46%  124,536   114,079 
10/1/2013 19.67%  138,655   118,990 
11/1/2013 19.75%  143,514   123,764 
12/1/2013 23.70%  150,105   126,405 
1/1/2014 26.63%  157,138   130,503 
2/1/2014 24.70%  150,619   125,918 
3/1/2014 25.66%  158,116   132,458 
4/1/2014 30.38%  162,991   132,616 
5/1/2014 29.65%  162,428   132,779 
6/1/2014 31.44%  167,001   135,559 
7/1/2014 39.23%  177,971   138,740 
8/1/2014 31.13%  167,054   135,922 
9/1/2014 35.90%  177,792   141,892 
10/1/2014 29.38%  168,321   138,944 
11/1/2014 26.14%  168,810   142,666 
12/1/2014 30.22%  176,420   146,198 
1/1/2015 28.17%  174,306   146,140 
2/1/2015 20.63%  162,833   142,201 
3/1/2015 25.15%  175,476   150,324 
4/1/2015 29.95%  178,565   148,612 
5/1/2015 37.31%  186,655   149,348 
6/1/2015 51.53%  202,897   151,371 
7/1/2015 62.69%  211,437   148,743 
8/1/2015 40.75%  192,117   151,369 
9/1/2015 36.41%  178,603   142,195 
10/1/2015 43.12%  181,175   138,052 
11/1/2015 69.02%  217,959   148,936 
12/1/2015 73.49%  223,435   149,946 
1/1/2016 63.33%  209,514   146,186 
2/1/2016 49.49%  187,428   137,934 
3/1/2016 56.48%  194,415   137,934 
4/1/2016 47.34%  195,770   148,430 
5/1/2016 46.38%  194,301   147,923 
6/1/2016 51.44%  201,999   150,558 
7/1/2016 50.41%  201,092   150,680 
8/1/2016 52.72%  207,223   154,501 
9/1/2016 67.04%  222,481   155,446 
10/1/2016 42.98%  198,563   155,582 
11/1/2016 41.86%  195,726   153,863 
12/1/2016 45.92%  202,775   156,859 
1/1/2017 45.60%  209,503   163,936 
2/1/2017 45.20%  212,330   167,146 
3/1/2017 48.80%  222,583   173,829 
4/1/2017 55.70%  229,473   173,735 
5/1/2017 55.80%  231,497   175,712 
6/1/2017 53.40%  230,599   177,203 
7/1/2017 60.28%  239,060   178,782 
Current 60.81%  243,171   182,360 

Here are the 4 tranches, less than a month left on August tranche.


8/15/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CSCO  $31.20  $31.84  $1.10  5.6% 15.1%
 GNC  $19.79  $8.89  $0.38  -53.2% 15.1%
 VLO  $54.73  $67.78  $2.00  27.5% 15.1%
 MSGN  $16.68  $21.15  $0.00  26.8% 15.1%
 GILD  $79.33  $73.76  $1.98  -4.5% 15.1%
Totals 0.4% 15.1%
11/15/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 MPAA  $26.55  $27.68  $0.00  4.3% 15.0%
 ATHM  $22.61  $47.60  $0.00  110.5% 15.0%
 AMGN  $145.14  $180.21  $2.00  25.5% 15.0%
 RHI  $43.23  $48.42  $0.70  13.6% 15.0%
 CA  $31.11  $34.42  $0.51  12.3% 15.0%
Totals 33.2% 15.0%
2/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 AKRX  $19.10  $33.60  $0.00  75.9% 8.9%
 YY  $41.08  $67.59  $0.00  64.5% 8.9%
 KLAC  $85.11  $99.89  $1.08  18.6% 8.9%
 WNC  $17.65  $22.68  $0.06  28.8% 8.9%
 RGR  $52.75  $57.45  $0.92  10.7% 8.9%
Totals 39.7% 8.9%
5/6/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 WSTC  $24.15  $23.32  $0.00  -3.4% 3.3%
 TGNA  $25.75  $22.72  $0.07  -11.5% 3.3%
 TIME  $15.05  $13.85  $0.04  -7.7% 3.3%
 MSGN  $23.55  $21.15  $0.00  -10.2% 3.3%
 QCOM  $54.93  $53.84  $0.57  -0.9% 3.3%
Totals -6.8% 3.3%

ATHM is up 110%, I am happy, but nervous.  YY is similar, up 64%.


Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment  25,000   25,000   25,000   25,000   100,000 
Current Tranche 0.4% 33.2% 39.7% -6.8% 17.8%
Previous Tranche 2.8% 8.0% 10.7% 19.1% 9.1%
Tranche -2 11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 10.3%
Tranche -3 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
Tranche -4 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 85.3% 300.4% 156.4% 30.6% 143.2%
Current Balance  46,313   100,106   64,095   32,657   243,171 
R3K Current Tranche 15.1% 15.0% 8.9% 3.3% 10.6%
R3K Overall Gain 92.4% 95.9% 76.2% 64.9% 82.4%
R3K Balance  48,098   48,985   44,062   41,216   182,360 
Annualized IRR 13.3% 34.5% 23.4% 6.5% 19.4%

You can see my open tranches are up 17.8% on average, smoking Russell 3000 up 10.6%.

MFI Formula

Here I also have 4 tranches of 5 stocks.  But these are picked by formula and random number generator.  I actually started a new tranche this past week.  I have been using this approach since October 2014.  It had a very good week.


Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%  100,000   100,000 
11/1/2014 1.63%  102,288   100,658 
12/1/2014 0.30%  101,375   101,075 
1/1/2015 -0.33%  100,664   100,995 
2/1/2015 1.67%  101,281   99,611 
3/1/2015 3.62%  106,073   102,454 
4/1/2015 5.09%  106,781   101,695 
5/1/2015 5.78%  107,859   102,077 
6/1/2015 5.08%  108,213   103,134 
7/1/2015 4.82%  106,423   101,604 
8/1/2015 3.71%  107,112   103,404 
9/1/2015 4.38%  101,523   97,139 
10/1/2015 6.39%  100,703   94,312 
11/1/2015 2.93%  104,835   101,907 
12/1/2015 -3.48%  99,443   102,926 
1/1/2016 -3.36%  96,830   100,012 
2/1/2016 -0.72%  93,797   94,367 
3/1/2016 4.07%  98,588   94,367 
4/1/2016 0.34%  102,371   101,548 
5/1/2016 -1.91%  99,774   101,200 
6/1/2016 -0.42%  103,145   103,568 
7/1/2016 -0.19%  103,022   103,216 
8/1/2016 2.56%  109,419   106,857 
9/1/2016 -0.34%  106,704   107,048 
10/1/2016 -0.85%  106,377   107,230 
11/1/2016 0.42%  105,421   105,003 
12/1/2016 1.62%  110,705   109,088 
1/1/2017 1.57%  113,406   111,832 
2/1/2017 1.32%  114,809   113,486 
3/1/2017 -5.09%  112,930   118,024 
4/1/2017 -1.86%  116,227   118,091 
5/1/2017 1.11%  120,403   119,296 
6/1/2017 -2.65%  117,824   120,472 
7/1/2017 -2.40%  119,144   121,545 
Current -0.34%  123,627   123,962 

Here are the four tranches:

10/3/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CPLA  $58.15  $87.95  $1.23  53.4% 15.9%
 LDOS  $43.01  $53.44  $0.96  26.5% 15.9%
 GME  $27.70  $20.78  $1.13  -20.9% 15.9%
 PBI  $18.15  $15.53  $0.56  -11.3% 15.9%
 CSCO  $31.72  $31.84  $1.10  3.8% 15.9%
Totals 10.3% 15.9%
12/30/2016 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 GILD  $71.69  $73.76  $1.04  4.3% 10.8%
 HPQ  $15.00  $19.15  $0.40  30.3% 10.8%
 TGNA  $21.33  $22.72  $0.21  7.5% 10.8%
 CA  $31.99  $34.42  $0.51  9.2% 10.8%
 SYNT  $19.79  $19.40  $0.00  -2.0% 10.8%
Totals 9.9% 10.8%
4/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 BKE  $18.45  $16.75  $0.50  -6.5% 5.0%
 CSCO  $33.76  $31.84  $0.58  -4.0% 5.0%
 GILD  $67.50  $73.76  $0.52  10.0% 5.0%
 OMC  $85.53  $82.73  $0.55  -2.6% 5.0%
 SYNT  $16.76  $19.40  $0.00  15.7% 5.0%
Totals 2.5% 5.0%
7/1/2017 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CSCO  $30.98  $31.84  $0.00  2.8% 1.9%
 GME  $20.95  $20.78  $0.00  -0.8% 1.9%
 HPQ  $17.60  $19.15  $0.00  8.8% 1.9%
 RGR  $60.70  $57.45  $0.00  -5.4% 1.9%
 SYNT  $16.21  $19.40  $0.00  19.7% 1.9%
Totals 5.0% 1.9%

Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment  249,820   249,939   250,180   249,728   999,667 
Current Tranche 10.3% 9.9% 2.5% 5.0% 6.6%
Previous Tranche 5.5% 9.3% 25.2% 26.7% 16.4%
Tranche -2 0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.3%
MFI Overall Gain 16.9% 33.3% 28.0% 16.5% 23.7%
Current Balance  292,026   333,100   320,291   290,857   1,236,274 
R3K Current Tranche 15.9% 10.8% 5.0% 1.9% 8.4%
R3K Overall Gain 30.9% 23.8% 22.5% 18.7% 24.0%
R3K Balance  327,099   309,512   306,595   296,417   1,239,623 
Annualized IRR 5.7% 11.9% 11.3% 7.7% 9.1%

I definitely closed some ground on open tranches, 6.6% to 8.4%.


Dividend Portfolio and Miscellaneous


Everyday I am closer to retirement, so I am focusing more and more on the dividend portfolio.  It has been great this year.


Stock Initial Current Div/Sh Gain/Loss Yield
 FDEU   18.40   18.96   0.24  4% 7.7%
 JQC   8.20   8.60   0.54  12% 7.3%
 ISBC   13.15   13.02   -    -1% 2.5%
 TK   5.24   7.71   -    47% 2.9%
 SBRA   23.53   23.45   0.29  1% 7.3%
 KCLI   49.19   48.95   -    0% 2.5%
 NRZ   16.22   15.96   0.38  1% 12.5%
 PSXP   48.20   50.42   -    5% 4.9%
 TGONF   10.47   12.81   1.97  41% 5.4%
 DHF   3.34   3.53   0.07  8% 9.2%
 LADR   12.88   13.10   -    2% 9.2%
 RILY   13.85   19.85   -    43% 1.6%
 DSL   18.49   20.97   2.01  24% 8.6%
 FSFR   8.92   8.66   -    -3% 8.8%
 O   25.02   57.31   20.25  210% 4.4%
 OIBAX   5.09   5.94   2.39  64% 3.9%


I think I will continue to look for plays that I think are "safe". KCLI, FSFR and TGONF trade well under book value, so I am getting a dollar for 70 cents.  Then ISBC is "cheap"for a smaller bank (1.27 of BV with a 2.4% dividend).



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