Good morning! Hope people got to see my Hoosiers beat the Tar Heels this week. Interesting fact, the last five times a top 3 team has visited Assembly Hall they have lost. Serious home court advantage.
As my followers know, I have been writing/blogging about Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula Investing since 2006. I have two series of portfolios (for a total of 8 tranches of five stocks) involving real money. I also have tracking portfolios that I update once a month to gauge how well an investor would have done being in MFI since 2006.
The past week was pretty blah, did give back a bit. It was a tough week for MFI in general, down about 2.5%. My portfolio overall hung in decently as BAC warrants were up 5% and they are now far and away my largest holding.
MFI Select
Down 2.8% on the week... there usually seems to be a correlation here with my MFI Index.
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $23.08 | $0.00 | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $65.84 | $2.07 | 50.3% | 16.7% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.15 | $0.00 | -53.1% | 16.7% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $18.94 | $0.00 | 23.5% | 16.7% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $26.45 | $0.00 | 10.1% | 16.7% |
| Totals | 9.7% | 16.7% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $12.36 | $0.11 | 56.5% | 9.4% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $32.10 | $0.00 | -15.1% | 9.4% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $21.30 | $0.26 | 16.5% | 9.4% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $45.56 | $0.66 | 20.0% | 9.4% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $126.49 | $0.00 | 17.1% | 9.4% |
| Totals | 19.0% | 9.4% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $29.25 | $0.26 | -5.4% | 1.6% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $13.32 | $0.19 | -31.7% | 1.6% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $61.46 | $0.60 | 13.4% | 1.6% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $20.70 | $0.00 | 24.1% | 1.6% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $72.42 | $0.47 | -8.1% | 1.6% |
| Totals | -1.6% | 1.6% | |||
| 11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MPAA | $26.55 | $24.30 | $0.00 | -8.5% | 1.4% |
| ATHM | $22.61 | $27.09 | $0.00 | 19.8% | 1.4% |
| AMGN | $145.14 | $144.01 | $0.00 | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| RHI | $43.23 | $45.56 | $0.22 | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| CA | $31.11 | $31.05 | $0.00 | -0.2% | 1.4% |
| Totals | 3.3% | 1.4% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -1.6% | 3.3% | 9.7% | 19.0% | 6.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 8.0% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 6.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 26.8% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 81.6% | 210.3% | 81.7% | 39.9% | 103.4% |
| Current Balance | 45,394 | 77,573 | 45,434 | 34,983 | 203,383 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 1.6% | 1.4% | 16.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 69.7% | 72.8% | 55.4% | 33.0% | 57.1% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 43,193 | 38,856 | 33,238 | 157,065 |
| Annualized IRR | 14.9% | 32.2% | 16.8% | 9.8% | 18.4% |
So you can see my current May tranche is carrying most of the water here. Despite that, my four current tranches are up 6.2% versus 7.3% for Russell 3000. Part of this is because May is now my smallest tranche (initial $25k per stock is just $34,983).
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 11/1/2016 | 41.86% | 195,726 | 153,863 |
| 12/1/2016 | 45.92% | 202,775 | 156,859 |
| Current | 46.32% | 203,383 | 157,065 |
This is my month by month table, assuming I started with $100,000. 2016 continues to be a bit of a struggle, though going in right direction since 10/1.
Here is how stocks performed over past week:
| Portfolio | Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| Select | RHI | 45.26 | 45.56 | - | 0.7% |
| Select | ATHM | 28.05 | 27.09 | - | -3.4% |
| Select | CA | 31.78 | 31.05 | - | -2.3% |
| Select | AMGN | 145.43 | 144.01 | - | -1.0% |
| Select | MPAA | 26.35 | 24.30 | - | -7.8% |
| Select | QCOM | 68.29 | 65.84 | 0.53 | -2.8% |
| Select | MSGN | 19.90 | 20.70 | - | 4.0% |
| Select | VLO | 64.86 | 61.46 | - | -5.2% |
| Select | BRCD | 12.38 | 12.36 | - | -0.2% |
| Select | DEPO | 20.39 | 18.94 | - | -7.1% |
| Select | CSCO | 30.09 | 29.25 | - | -2.8% |
| Select | VEC | 23.10 | 23.08 | - | -0.1% |
| Select | TDC | 27.35 | 26.45 | - | -3.3% |
| Select | GILD | 75.44 | 72.42 | - | -4.0% |
Not many winners.
MFI Formula
While the 4 tranches I pick for MFI select are discretionary to me, MFI Formula (as it sounds) is formulaic. It is comprised of stocks greater that $600m market cap and with a dividend of 2.4% or greater. I then randomly pick five stocks that meet those criteria.
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $45.67 | $1.29 | 54.9% | 9.6% |
| GME | $28.34 | $24.27 | $1.11 | -10.4% | 9.6% |
| ILG | $15.89 | $18.08 | $0.36 | 16.0% | 9.6% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $17.69 | $2.75 | -8.0% | 9.6% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $36.52 | $1.00 | -8.3% | 9.6% |
| Totals | 8.8% | 9.6% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $39.65 | $0.44 | -21.8% | 9.3% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $15.12 | $0.25 | 27.0% | 9.3% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $16.00 | $0.57 | 8.7% | 9.3% |
| ILG | $13.85 | $18.08 | $0.24 | 32.2% | 9.3% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $39.30 | $0.60 | 29.6% | 9.3% |
| Totals | 15.1% | 9.3% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ILG | $16.76 | $18.08 | $0.12 | 8.6% | 5.0% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $36.52 | $0.20 | -16.5% | 5.0% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $86.75 | $0.78 | 64.5% | 5.0% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $21.72 | $0.22 | -7.1% | 5.0% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $14.63 | $0.38 | -15.2% | 5.0% |
| Totals | 6.8% | 5.0% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $86.75 | $0.39 | 49.9% | 2.2% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $51.57 | $0.00 | 19.9% | 2.2% |
| GME | $27.70 | $24.27 | $0.00 | -12.4% | 2.2% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $14.63 | $0.19 | -18.4% | 2.2% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $29.25 | $0.26 | -7.0% | 2.2% |
| Totals | 6.4% | 2.2% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 6.4% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 5.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 1.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.5% | - | - | - | 0.1% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 12.8% | 20.8% | 14.9% | -6.5% | 10.5% |
| Current Balance | 281,749 | 302,006 | 287,372 | 233,548 | 1,104,676 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 2.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 15.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 9.4% |
| R3K Balance | 288,424 | 273,167 | 270,420 | 261,617 | 1,093,628 |
| Annualized IRR | 5.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | -4.6% | 5.7% |
I started this approach a couple years after the Select approach, so not as mature. You can see the current four tranches are up 9.2% versus 6.5% for R3K. I am also winning overall, but not by as much as Select.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 11/1/2016 | 0.42% | 105,421 | 105,003 |
| 12/1/2016 | 1.62% | 110,705 | 109,088 |
| Current | 1.11% | 110,468 | 109,362 |
Here is how stocks performed in past week:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| ILG | 18.40 | 18.08 | 0.12 | -1.1% |
| CPLA | 88.55 | 86.75 | - | -2.0% |
| GME | 25.82 | 24.27 | - | -6.0% |
| VIAB | 37.64 | 36.52 | - | -3.0% |
| BBY | 46.58 | 45.67 | - | -2.0% |
| PBI | 14.86 | 14.63 | - | -1.5% |
| TSRA | 40.55 | 39.30 | - | -3.1% |
| HPQ | 15.18 | 15.12 | - | -0.4% |
| LDOS | 49.98 | 51.57 | - | 3.2% |
| CSCO | 30.09 | 29.25 | - | -2.8% |
| PPC | 18.18 | 17.69 | - | -2.7% |
| TIME | 13.60 | 16.00 | - | 17.6% |
| HRB | 23.98 | 21.72 | - | -9.4% |
| CALM | 40.35 | 39.65 | - | -1.7% |
Obviously the bid for TIME was a key item here.
Dividend Portfolio
I am trying to build out an income stream here for retirement. Obviously the spectre of higher rates puts a damper on this portfolio, but it hung in there last week (virtually flat).
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Dividends | Overall Pct Gain | Weekly Pct Gain | 7/1/16 Price | % Chg Since 7/1/16 |
| CSQ | 9.09 | 10.08 | 2.16 | 34.7% | -0.8% | 9.99 | 5.1% |
| AOD | 7.64 | 7.30 | 1.64 | 17.1% | -2.9% | 7.33 | 3.4% |
| SBRA | 22.46 | 22.37 | 0.42 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 22.46 | -0.4% |
| SJT | 7.76 | 6.35 | 0.34 | -13.8% | 2.9% | 7.26 | -10.6% |
| JQC | 7.84 | 8.62 | 0.59 | 17.6% | -0.1% | 8.10 | 9.6% |
| TGONF | 10.24 | 11.30 | 1.85 | 28.5% | 2.7% | 10.05 | 14.1% |
| PSXP | 46.95 | 45.19 | 0.53 | -2.6% | 0.9% | 46.95 | -3.7% |
| PSX | 80.00 | 84.88 | 2.88 | 9.7% | 0.0% | 80.00 | 6.1% |
| DSL | 18.43 | 18.56 | 0.88 | 5.5% | 1.2% | 18.59 | 3.9% |
| GLDI | 10.66 | 9.17 | 0.68 | -7.6% | -0.4% | 10.87 | -10.3% |
| O | 24.07 | 54.73 | 19.16 | 207.0% | -3.3% | 69.64 | -20.0% |
| DHF | 3.11 | 3.21 | - | 3.2% | -0.9% | 3.11 | 3.2% |
| OIBAX | 5.07 | 5.58 | 2.30 | 55.4% | -0.2% | 5.84 | -2.6% |
| Totals | 15.2% | 1.6% |
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