Late update as I was traveling this weekend with no internet. Solid week until Friday, where the bottom fell out. I was down over 2% on Friday. My moves during the week did not help. I did buy LNG and my new dividend stock is GLDI.
MFI Select
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $16.87 | $0.00 | -9.6% | 0.8% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $7.03 | $0.00 | -24.7% | 0.8% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $29.03 | $0.68 | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $21.91 | $0.56 | -11.2% | 0.8% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $18.59 | $0.26 | -6.4% | 0.8% |
| Totals | -9.9% | 0.8% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $23.21 | $ - | -31.8% | 3.1% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $45.81 | $ - | 32.9% | 3.1% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $24.94 | $ 2.75 | 45.9% | 3.1% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $26.23 | $ - | 11.1% | 3.1% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.40 | $ - | 35.3% | 3.1% |
| Totals | 18.7% | 3.1% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $26.23 | $ - | 33.6% | 9.7% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $53.83 | $ 1.01 | 21.4% | 9.7% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.14 | $ - | -53.5% | 9.7% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $19.82 | $ - | 29.2% | 9.7% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $27.85 | $ - | 15.9% | 9.7% |
| Totals | 9.3% | 9.7% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $8.87 | $ 0.06 | 12.0% | 2.8% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $37.07 | $ - | -2.0% | 2.8% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.59 | $ - | 0.4% | 2.8% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $39.98 | $ 0.22 | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $111.35 | $ - | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| Totals | 3.6% | 2.8% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -9.9% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 7.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 53.9% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 61.7% | 230.2% | 81.2% | 21.8% | 98.7% |
| Current Balance | 40,415 | 82,538 | 45,290 | 30,453 | 198,696 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 0.8% | 3.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 60.0% | 62.7% | 46.2% | 33.0% | 50.4% |
| R3K Balance | 39,997 | 40,670 | 36,541 | 33,238 | 150,446 |
| Annualized IRR | 13.4% | 39.6% | 19.3% | 6.6% | 21.2% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| Current | 48.25% | 198,696 | 150,446 |
You can see it has been a tough June thus far.
MFI Formula
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| Current | -1.53% | 101,941 | 103,469 |
Again, a tough June, down a couple percent.
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $25.09 | $1.96 | -41.8% | 1.4% |
| CA | $29.34 | $32.99 | $1.01 | 15.9% | 1.4% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $51.48 | $1.39 | 19.0% | 1.4% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $53.83 | $1.97 | -11.4% | 1.4% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $42.02 | $1.20 | -33.3% | 1.4% |
| Totals | -10.3% | 1.4% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $25.09 | $1.73 | -27.2% | 8.8% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $17.35 | $0.45 | -18.9% | 8.8% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $53.83 | $1.49 | 3.5% | 8.8% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $29.03 | $0.68 | 12.7% | 8.8% |
| CA | $27.30 | $32.99 | $0.76 | 23.6% | 8.8% |
| Totals | -1.3% | 8.8% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $29.44 | $0.73 | -0.5% | 3.0% |
| GME | $28.34 | $26.53 | $0.74 | -3.8% | 3.0% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $14.97 | $0.24 | -4.3% | 3.0% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $24.94 | $2.75 | 24.6% | 3.0% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $42.02 | $0.40 | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Totals | 4.0% | 3.0% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $42.04 | $0.44 | -17.2% | 2.7% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $13.50 | $0.00 | 11.5% | 2.7% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $16.68 | $0.19 | 10.7% | 2.7% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $14.97 | $0.12 | 8.9% | 2.7% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $32.20 | $0.20 | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Totals | 3.8% | 2.7% |
You can see the July 1st tranche just has a couple of weeks left. It is not exactly setting the world afire.
Dividend Stocks
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.62 | $0.00 | -26.1% | -20.6% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.56 | $1.37 | 16.9% | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.20 | $0.30 | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.04 | $9.88 | $1.85 | 29.7% | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.41 | $18.48 | $0.00 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.01 | $1.52 | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $37.00 | $0.00 | 74.2% | 75.7% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.31 | $64.30 | $18.32 | 254.4% | 249.0% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.76 | $2.22 | 57.9% | 58.1% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $6.92 | $0.19 | -18.8% | -14.4% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $10.68 | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
Gad, I get so frustrated with my BAC warrants. This has just been a long term malaise. Note my newest position, GLDI.
Posts
4 comments:
Marsh,
Wehn you have -42%, -33% and -27% and not one single gain that is larger than the three losses
you GOT to ask? This Can't work can it?
John - where are you at? I am not following your point. I agree it has been a tough stretch for value stocks in general for the past two years - you needed to be a FANG or Bio tech or Tesla to go up. I do think more MFI stocks have real problems than 15 years ago - but if you add my two portfolios together I am beating the benchmark.
I really just looking at the dividend approach. Your stock picking would qualify you to run a Fund. I just don't think the dividend approach will work unless you have a few very large gains to offset -42,-33,-27.
Marsh,
Yesterday I did bale out of all my positions. Beat the market +1.9% over 18 months. My paper trades for one year before actual money +3.0% but not real accurate.
I probably could get a good job if I could beat the indes over 5 years by +2.0.
Cons:
Limited selection for me. 15 names is just not enough.
Did not want to do double or tribles on the picks
My old age is going to just follow your Blog for now
Maybe do some paper trades
May come back if I see +6.0%
I don't feel right in this world of zero rates
Thanks for you dedication, and all the hard and very good work.
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