Monday, June 13, 2016

Weekend Update 6/13/16

Weekend Update

Late update as I was traveling this weekend with no internet.  Solid week until Friday, where the bottom fell out.  I was down over 2% on Friday.  My moves during the week did not help.  I did buy LNG and my new dividend stock is GLDI.

MFI Select

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $16.87 $0.00 -9.6% 0.8%
 SALE  $9.34 $7.03 $0.00 -24.7% 0.8%
 CSCO  $28.95 $29.03 $0.68 2.6% 0.8%
 TGNA  $25.30 $21.91 $0.56 -11.2% 0.8%
 HSII  $20.14 $18.59 $0.26 -6.4% 0.8%
 Totals  -9.9% 0.8%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $23.21  $           -   -31.8% 3.1%
 SAVE  $34.48 $45.81  $           -   32.9% 3.1%
 PPC  $18.98 $24.94  $       2.75 45.9% 3.1%
 VEC  $23.60 $26.23  $           -   11.1% 3.1%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.40  $           -   35.3% 3.1%
 Totals  18.7% 3.1%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $26.23  $           -   33.6% 9.7%
 QCOM  $45.18 $53.83  $       1.01 21.4% 9.7%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.14  $           -   -53.5% 9.7%
 DEPO  $15.34 $19.82  $           -   29.2% 9.7%
 TDC  $24.02 $27.85  $           -   15.9% 9.7%
 Totals  9.3% 9.7%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $8.87  $       0.06 12.0% 2.8%
 CBI  $37.82 $37.07  $           -   -2.0% 2.8%
 HSII  $18.51 $18.59  $           -   0.4% 2.8%
 RHI  $38.51 $39.98  $       0.22 4.4% 2.8%
 UTHR  $107.99 $111.35  $           -   3.1% 2.8%
 Totals  3.6% 2.8%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -9.9% 18.7% 9.3% 3.6% 7.0%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 53.9%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  61.7% 230.2% 81.2% 21.8% 98.7%
 Current Balance         40,415          82,538       45,290        30,453      198,696
 R3K Current Tranche  0.8% 3.1% 9.7% 2.8% 4.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  60.0% 62.7% 46.2% 33.0% 50.4%
 R3K Balance         39,997          40,670       36,541        33,238      150,446
 Annualized IRR  13.4% 39.6% 19.3% 6.6% 21.2%


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
Current 48.25%        198,696            150,446

You can see it has been a tough June thus far.

MFI Formula

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
Current -1.53%        101,941            103,469

Again, a tough June, down a couple percent.

7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $25.09 $1.96 -41.8% 1.4%
 CA  $29.34 $32.99 $1.01 15.9% 1.4%
 MSFT  $44.42 $51.48 $1.39 19.0% 1.4%
 QCOM  $62.95 $53.83 $1.97 -11.4% 1.4%
 VIAB  $64.75 $42.02 $1.20 -33.3% 1.4%
 Totals  -10.3% 1.4%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $25.09 $1.73 -27.2% 8.8%
 IQNT  $21.96 $17.35 $0.45 -18.9% 8.8%
 QCOM  $53.45 $53.83 $1.49 3.5% 8.8%
 CSCO  $26.37 $29.03 $0.68 12.7% 8.8%
 CA  $27.30 $32.99 $0.76 23.6% 8.8%
 Totals  -1.3% 8.8%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $29.44 $0.73 -0.5% 3.0%
 GME  $28.34 $26.53 $0.74 -3.8% 3.0%
 IILG  $15.89 $14.97 $0.24 -4.3% 3.0%
 PPC  $22.22 $24.94 $2.75 24.6% 3.0%
 VIAB  $40.93 $42.02 $0.40 3.7% 3.0%
 Totals  4.0% 3.0%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $42.04 $0.44 -17.2% 2.7%
 HPQ  $12.10 $13.50 $0.00 11.5% 2.7%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.68 $0.19 10.7% 2.7%
 IILG  $13.85 $14.97 $0.12 8.9% 2.7%
 TSRA  $30.79 $32.20 $0.20 5.2% 2.7%
 Totals  3.8% 2.7%

You can see the July 1st tranche just has a couple of weeks left.  It is not exactly setting the world afire.

Dividend Stocks

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.62 $0.00 -26.1% -20.6% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.56 $1.37 16.9% 17.1% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.20 $0.30 8.8% 8.4% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.04 $9.88 $1.85 29.7% 30.5% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $18.48 $0.00 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.01 $1.52 12.6% 12.5% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $37.00 $0.00 74.2% 75.7% 75.7%
 O  $23.31 $64.30 $18.32 254.4% 249.0% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.76 $2.22 57.9% 58.1% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.92 $0.19 -18.8% -14.4% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.68 $10.68 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 Totals  6.8% 9.0% 9.0%

Gad, I get so frustrated with my BAC warrants.  This has just been a long term malaise. Note my newest position, GLDI.

4 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Wehn you have -42%, -33% and -27% and not one single gain that is larger than the three losses
you GOT to ask? This Can't work can it?

Marsh_Gerda said...

John - where are you at? I am not following your point. I agree it has been a tough stretch for value stocks in general for the past two years - you needed to be a FANG or Bio tech or Tesla to go up. I do think more MFI stocks have real problems than 15 years ago - but if you add my two portfolios together I am beating the benchmark.

John Carney said...

I really just looking at the dividend approach. Your stock picking would qualify you to run a Fund. I just don't think the dividend approach will work unless you have a few very large gains to offset -42,-33,-27.

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Yesterday I did bale out of all my positions. Beat the market +1.9% over 18 months. My paper trades for one year before actual money +3.0% but not real accurate.

I probably could get a good job if I could beat the indes over 5 years by +2.0.

Cons:
Limited selection for me. 15 names is just not enough.
Did not want to do double or tribles on the picks
My old age is going to just follow your Blog for now
Maybe do some paper trades
May come back if I see +6.0%
I don't feel right in this world of zero rates

Thanks for you dedication, and all the hard and very good work.