Saturday, June 04, 2016

Weekend Update - 6/4/16

Weekend Update

Good morning. Funny, it felt like a bad week as Friday was so bad.  But I actually eked out a minor gain as did the Russell 3000.  We had a terrible jobs number, which assuredly takes any June rate hike off the table.  It is starting to feel like we are going to have an entire century of low interest rates.  Something to noodle over.

I was a bit active this week on the transaction side.  I sold my NTC, which had been a solid performer for two year.  It is just I live in Connecticut and the finances of the government here are in disarray.  They have recently been downgraded and every year seem to have a large deficit.  This editorial in the WSJ clinched it for me (Opinion Journal: Connecticut's Bridgewater Bribe).

I used some of the proceeds to buy DSL, a closed end fund that yields 10%.  So I will actually increase my income stream a bit.  I also bought a speculative position in BXE, a natural gas play I owned a year or so ago. I bought that for 96 cents, a true penny stock.  To be clear, this is a smallish position.

MFI Select

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $16.71 $0.00 -10.5% 0.9%
 SALE  $9.34 $7.16 $0.00 -23.3% 0.9%
 CSCO  $28.95 $29.13 $0.68 3.0% 0.9%
 TGNA  $25.30 $22.84 $0.56 -7.5% 0.9%
 HSII  $20.14 $18.35 $0.26 -7.6% 0.9%
 Totals  -9.2% 0.9%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $24.61  $           -   -27.6% 3.2%
 SAVE  $34.48 $42.94  $           -   24.6% 3.2%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.00  $       2.75 46.2% 3.2%
 VEC  $23.60 $25.48  $           -   8.0% 3.2%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.58  $           -   39.8% 3.2%
 Totals  18.2% 3.2%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $25.48  $           -   29.7% 9.8%
 QCOM  $45.18 $54.94  $       1.01 23.8% 9.8%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.28  $           -   -47.8% 9.8%
 DEPO  $15.34 $20.16  $           -   31.4% 9.8%
 TDC  $24.02 $28.31  $           -   17.9% 9.8%
 Totals  11.0% 9.8%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $8.84  $           -   10.9% 2.9%
 CBI  $37.82 $38.18  $           -   1.0% 2.9%
 HSII  $18.51 $18.35  $           -   -0.9% 2.9%
 RHI  $38.51 $40.45  $           -   5.0% 2.9%
 UTHR  $107.99 $116.31  $           -   7.7% 2.9%
 Totals  4.7% 2.9%

I am pleased with how my three most recent tranches are doing, all out-performing.

 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -9.2% 18.2% 11.0% 4.7% 7.6%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 53.9%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  62.9% 228.7% 84.0% 23.2% 99.7%
 Current Balance         40,717          82,182       45,993        30,795      199,686
 R3K Current Tranche  0.9% 3.2% 9.8% 2.9% 4.2%
 R3K Overall Gain  60.1% 62.8% 46.3% 33.0% 50.5%
 R3K Balance         40,029          40,703       36,570        33,238      150,540
 Annualized IRR  13.7% 39.8% 20.0% 7.0% 21.4%

This table shows you that on average my current tranches are up 7.6% (a herculean effort given how MFI tracking portfolios have fared) versus 4.2% for the R3K. It is a little frightening, looking at the current balance row.  My November tranches have done very very well. So I have 2x more in that tranche than any other. That may cause me to be more conservative in my picks in November.  I could rebalance. I will have to noodle that as well.

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
Current 49.15%        199,686            150,540


MFI Formula

7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $25.08 $1.96 -41.8% 1.4%
 CA  $29.34 $32.58 $1.01 14.5% 1.4%
 MSFT  $44.42 $51.79 $1.39 19.7% 1.4%
 QCOM  $62.95 $54.94 $1.97 -9.6% 1.4%
 VIAB  $64.75 $45.00 $1.20 -28.6% 1.4%
 Totals  -9.2% 1.4%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $25.08 $1.73 -27.2% 8.9%
 IQNT  $21.96 $18.04 $0.45 -15.8% 8.9%
 QCOM  $53.45 $54.94 $1.49 5.6% 8.9%
 CSCO  $26.37 $29.13 $0.68 13.0% 8.9%
 CA  $27.30 $32.58 $0.76 22.1% 8.9%
 Totals  -0.5% 8.9%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.35 $0.73 9.1% 3.1%
 GME  $28.34 $28.63 $0.37 2.3% 3.1%
 IILG  $15.89 $14.76 $0.24 -5.6% 3.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.00 $2.75 24.9% 3.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $45.00 $0.40 10.9% 3.1%
 Totals  8.3% 3.1%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $44.43 $0.44 -12.5% 2.8%
 HPQ  $12.10 $13.44 $0.00 11.0% 2.8%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.59 $0.19 10.1% 2.8%
 IILG  $13.85 $14.76 $0.12 7.4% 2.8%
 TSRA  $30.79 $32.36 $0.20 5.8% 2.8%
 Totals  4.4% 2.8%

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  -0.5% 8.3% 4.4% -9.2% 0.8%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% 0.0% 3.0%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  0.0% 20.3% 4.1% -9.2% 3.8%
 Current Balance      249,824        300,613     260,458      226,832      1,037,728
 R3K Current Tranche  8.9% 3.1% 2.8% 1.4% 4.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  8.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 3.6%
 R3K Balance      270,631        257,095     254,441      253,343      1,035,510
 Annualized IRR  0.0% 13.8% 3.5% -9.8% 2.9%
Here you can see my current tranches are up a mere 0.8%, whilst R3K is up  4.1%. That is closer to what I am seeing in tracking portfolios.  But my last two tranches are looking better, perhaps the tide is turning.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
Current 0.22%        103,773            103,551
Wow, a slight lead!  I'll take it.

Dividends & Warrants

BAC warrants took a sharp tumble on Friday.  I am going to  likely revise this table next week as REXI and NTC have both been sold.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.89 $0.00 -20.6% -15.9% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.58 $1.37 17.1% 16.2% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.17 $0.30 8.4% 7.7% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.04 $10.03 $1.77 30.5% 29.6% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.07 $13.63 $1.50 25.3% 25.3% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.00 $1.52 12.5% 12.4% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $37.31 $0.00 75.7% 78.6% 72.9%
 O  $23.31 $63.05 $18.32 249.0% 235.5% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.77 $2.22 58.1% 56.7% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.75 $7.31 $0.19 -14.4% -18.5% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.60 $9.61 $0.13 73.8% 73.8% -2.8%
 Totals  17.0% 17.1% 6.2%

1 comment:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

+2.2% over the index. Hard to get happy as I am looking for +6%