Life is pretty good. Not sure if people here use Hulu, but I have a Hulu Plus subscription and they just added all the Seinfeld episodes. They are still so funny to me and I didn't really start watching the series until season 3 or 4, so many of the early ones are new to me. I also finished book 5 of Game of Thrones series. While I really enjoy the HBO series, the books (for me) take it to a whole new level. Now I wait for book 6.
Week Overview
Well, we are essentially halfway through the year. It has been a successful year for me in total, up 15.4%. Obviously NHTC is a big driver, up over 200%. But my MFI formula portfolio has been solid, up 8%. This is actually quite good as 50% was in cash at start of year and is still 25% cash. I have also been pretty successful in discretionary buys (ESI was outstanding as was RIG). But good to remain humble, I was way ahead of market at mid point last year as well. Then GTAT, GNW and oil slump decimated my portfolio. It can happen again.
Reading Barron's was interesting this weekend (I am not done yet). They interviewed a bond trader who is convinced the Fed is likely to start raising rates in 2015. He does not think the markets have priced this in and expects a lot of turmoil (he was talking about fixed income market, but I suspect same will be true for equities). He also commented that a big change now are the numerous ETFs, many of which are liquid in of themselves, but trade in ill-liquid markets. He expects many more flash crashes in the future.
MFI Select
These tranches continue to motor along. June has seen them really, really stretch their lead over the benchmark. I suspect in July, some of this will be given back as NHTC is defying gravity to some extent in my view.
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $28.28 | $0.59 | 18.3% | 9.6% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $39.94 | $0.70 | 10.7% | 9.6% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $24.50 | $0.87 | 19.0% | 9.6% |
| $9.34 | $12.24 | $0.15 | 32.7% | 9.6% | |
| $58.25 | $52.62 | $0.14 | -9.4% | 9.6% | |
| Totals | 14.3% | 9.6% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $54.56 | $0.63 | -14.8% | 5.1% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $56.94 | $0.00 | 48.1% | 5.1% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $66.43 | $1.06 | -6.6% | 5.1% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $42.01 | $0.06 | 245.1% | 5.1% |
| $4.40 | $4.11 | $0.00 | -6.6% | 5.1% | |
| Totals | 53.0% | 5.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| VEC | $28.00 | $25.21 | $0.00 | -10.0% | 6.6% |
| $62.73 | $64.67 | $0.90 | 4.5% | 6.6% | |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $66.43 | $0.73 | 5.1% | 6.6% |
| $22.03 | $20.51 | $0.00 | -6.9% | 6.6% | |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $42.01 | $0.05 | 238.1% | 6.6% |
| Totals | 46.2% | 6.6% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $50.38 | $52.62 | $0.00 | 4.4% | 1.4% | |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.81 | $0.00 | -7.6% | 1.4% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $38.26 | $0.20 | -1.2% | 1.4% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $44.91 | $0.00 | -27.8% | 1.4% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $21.35 | $0.00 | -9.1% | 1.4% |
| Totals | -8.3% | 1.4% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 14.3% | 53.0% | 46.2% | -8.3% | 26.8% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 19.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 84.3% | 151.2% | 182.6% | 44.3% | 115.6% |
| Current Balance | 46,078 | 62,798 | 70,644 | 36,072 | 215,592 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 9.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 5.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 59.9% | 64.5% | 45.8% | 36.0% | 51.5% |
| R3K Balance | 39,964 | 41,119 | 36,451 | 33,998 | 151,531 |
| Annualized IRR | 23.8% | 42.2% | 54.1% | 18.7% | 36.6% |
It is looking more and more like the August tranche will be a winner. AGX has really moved up nicely of late. CBI seems to spike up for a week or two and then falls back. Looking at the table just above that has the summary, a 36.6% overall annual IRR is eye-popping. A few more years of that I will be living high.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 | |
| 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 | |
| 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 | |
| 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 | |
| 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 | |
| 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 | |
| Current | 64.06% | 215,592 | 151,531 |
Here you can see that if I had started with 100K spread over the 4 tranches in August 2012, I'd be at $215,592 now. Way ahead of benchmark.
MFI Formula
Exciting week. Wednesday (or maybe Tuesday) I will be kicking off my fourth and final tranche. As the title says, my picks will be formula driven. It looks like if run today there are 15 or so names that will be put to the randomizer.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.05 | $0.37 | 12.3% | 9.1% |
| $45.55 | $46.99 | $3.45 | 10.7% | 9.1% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $29.89 | $0.75 | 9.9% | 9.1% |
| $41.70 | $44.04 | $1.05 | 8.1% | 9.1% | |
| $44.56 | $48.50 | $1.05 | 11.2% | 9.1% | |
| Totals | 10.5% | 9.1% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.89 | $0.50 | -1.4% | 2.5% |
| $28.36 | $28.28 | $0.40 | 1.1% | 2.5% | |
| $34.81 | $57.15 | $0.49 | 65.6% | 2.5% | |
| $34.21 | $44.04 | $0.72 | 30.8% | 2.5% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $18.90 | $0.30 | -3.4% | 2.5% |
| Totals | 18.5% | 2.5% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $30.58 | $0.20 | -3.8% | 1.3% |
| GME | $37.69 | $44.04 | $0.36 | 17.8% | 1.3% |
| KING | $15.85 | $14.08 | $0.00 | -11.2% | 1.3% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.97 | $0.00 | 15.7% | 1.3% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $23.92 | $0.00 | 5.6% | 1.3% |
| Totals | 4.8% | 1.3% |
So all three open tranches winning. The 12/31 tranche is especially outstanding.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 | |
| 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 | |
| 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 | |
| -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 | |
| 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 | |
| 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 | |
| 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 | |
| 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 | |
| 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 | |
| Current | 5.24% | 108,453 | 103,218 |
You can see where the 100K has one. Solid start, but still early days.
Gotta run, off to see Kinky Boots! I know nothing about it (besides Cyndi Lauper writing the score. Should be fun.
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