Saturday, June 06, 2015

Weekend Update - 6/6/15

Weekend Update

I have made it to another weekend. Today is obviously D-Day.  Someday I would like to visit to beaches of Normandy where the invasion took place. It must be a very powerful feeling to go there.  Yesterday was Senior Prom for my son. They button down the place pretty tightly here and take breathalyzers of everyone as they enter.

Last week was a surprisingly good week for me, seems like everything just right.  I am now beating the R3K by over 6 points on the year as I was up over 2 points on the week.  I am getting very close to buying my fourth and final tranche for the MFI Formula portfolio.  I will actually need to sell some positions in my discretionary picks to raise some cash.  I did look yesterday and suddenly there are a lot of stocks qualifying.  I counted 15 yesterday!

MFI Select

These tranches continue to be nothing short of outstanding.  I think we can state that for me, since August 2012, that MFI has been a resounding success.  My annual IRR on this portfolio is about 34% versus 18% for the R3K.  My August tranche has turned on the jets and is starting to pull away a bit, just like the May 2014 portfolio did the final 45 days.

8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.58 $0.59 19.5% 9.0%
AGX $36.71 $37.07 $0.70 2.9% 9.0%
ITRN $21.32 $24.45 $0.71 18.0% 9.0%
BRCD $9.34 $12.37 $0.11 33.6% 9.0%
CBI $58.25 $55.87 $0.14 -3.8% 9.0%
Totals 14.0% 9.0%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $55.64 $0.63 -13.2% 4.6%
IPCM $38.45 $49.98 $0.00 30.0% 4.6%
VIAB $72.29 $68.06 $0.66 -4.9% 4.6%
NHTC $12.19 $32.88 $0.06 170.2% 4.6%
AWRE $4.40 $4.24 $0.00 -3.6% 4.6%
Totals 35.7% 4.6%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $25.06 $0.00 -10.5% 6.1%
QCOM $62.73 $68.26 $0.90 10.2% 6.1%
VIAB $63.91 $68.06 $0.33 7.0% 6.1%
UIS $22.03 $20.67 $0.00 -6.2% 6.1%
NHTC $12.44 $32.88 $0.05 164.7% 6.1%
Totals 33.1% 6.1%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $55.87 $0.00 10.9% 0.8%
PSDV $4.12 $3.93 $0.00 -4.7% 0.8%
TSRA $38.94 $38.56 $0.20 -0.5% 0.8%
KORS $62.24 $48.87 $0.00 -21.5% 0.8%
DEPO $23.50 $21.89 $0.00 -6.9% 0.8%
Totals -4.5% 0.8%


You can see that August now leads by about 5 points.  then while my newest tranche, May 2015 is trailing - it also closed a lot of ground this week (it was down 8.1 points last week).

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 14.0% 35.7% 33.1% -4.5% 19.9%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 19.3%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 84.0% 122.7% 157.2% 50.2% 103.5%
Current Balance      45,990       55,684     64,306      37,550    203,530
R3K Current Tranche 9.0% 4.6% 6.1% 0.8% 5.1%
R3K Overall Gain 59.0% 63.6% 45.0% 35.3% 50.7%
R3K Balance      39,754       40,903     36,258      33,818    150,733
Annualized IRR 24.2% 36.8% 49.7% 21.5% 34.2%


Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765         101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798         104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594         104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881         105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804         107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423         108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831         111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888         110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799         117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536         114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655         118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514         123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105         126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138         130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619         125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116         132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991         132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428         132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001         135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971         138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054         135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792         141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321         138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810         142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420         146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306         146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833         142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%      175,476         150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%      178,565         148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%      186,655         149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%      202,897         151,371
Current 52.80%      203,530         150,733


So the month by month progression shows a solid lead, assuming 100,000 invested in this approach spread evenly over the four tranches.

MFI Formula

These guys were really helped by GME this past week, which is in all three tranches.  The September tranche was trailing after sub-par earnings from BKE and BAH, but has now bounced back into the lead:

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $25.39 $0.24 9.0% 8.5%
BKE $45.55 $46.16 $3.45 8.9% 8.5%
CA $27.87 $29.67 $0.75 9.1% 8.5%
GME $41.70 $44.14 $0.69 7.5% 8.5%
NUS $44.56 $50.84 $1.05 16.4% 8.5%
Totals 10.2% 8.5%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.67 $0.50 -2.1% 2.0%
CSCO $28.36 $28.58 $0.40 2.2% 2.0%
RGR $34.81 $55.26 $0.49 60.1% 2.0%
GME $34.21 $44.14 $0.36 30.1% 2.0%
IQNT $19.87 $17.93 $0.30 -8.3% 2.0%
Totals 16.4% 2.0%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $31.48 $0.00 -1.6% 0.7%
GME $37.69 $44.14 $0.00 17.1% 0.7%
KING $15.85 $15.02 $0.00 -5.2% 0.7%
NSU $3.43 $4.20 $0.00 22.4% 0.7%
PPC $22.65 $24.36 $0.00 7.5% 0.7%
Totals 8.1% 0.7%


It is gratifying for me to see the formula working so well.  You may ask if I have been "lucky" and I do think I have been so far.  The stocks Mr Random didn't pick have these results:

  • September:  +10.9% + about 2% of dividends
  • December:  basically flat with 1.5% of dividends
  • March: down 1.6%

So I have truly been fortunate. If you rolled those three up, I think I would have a slight lead on R3K.  But nothing like what I am enjoying (a 5.8 point cushion).


Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%      100,000         100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%      102,288         100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%      101,375         101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%      100,664         100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%      101,281           99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%      106,073         102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%      106,781         101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%      107,859         102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%      108,213         103,134
Current 5.85%      108,655         102,804


Discretionary Holdings

I did sell my ESI for a very satisfying 2 day gain of over 30%.  This week, I bought REXI and WILN. So far a mixed bag on their results.  But as I mentioned, I will need to sell some of my discretionary holdings (such as those two and CSIQ) in the upcoming weeks.

1 comment:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

I have been a little downhearted and bummed out over my MFI Formula. I have $104,306 with actual dividends. #1 is +11.2%, #2 is +7.3% and #3 is -.6.