The Newest Monthly Tracking Portfolio

June 26th, 2015 Tracking Portfolio

Time for a new tracking portfolio to kick off.  As a reminder, I take the top 50 stocks greater than $100 million market cap from the official screen.

I then track them for a year and compare their results versus the Russell 3000 benchmark.  I also track three subset portfolios: (1) dividend stocks with yield 2.6% and greater, (2) stocks new to my tracking portfolios in past 12 months and (3) dogs of the portfolio, which is essentially stocks that were on the screen a year ago and down 30% or more in past year.

I thought a summary table of the 50 stocks showing their start points and whether they make one of the sub portfolios would be interesting to my twenty readers.

Stock	Initial Price	52 week low	Mkt Cap	New	Dividend Flag	Dog Flag
AGX	39.94	28.62	586	0	0	0
APOL	16.35	16.00	1,760	0	0	1
BKE	46.99	40.54	2,281	0	0	0
BRCD	12.24	8.89	5,115	0	0	0
CA	29.89	25.25	13,017	0	1	0
CLCT	20.81	18.78	185	0	1	0
CPLA	55.60	50.48	680	0	1	0
CSCO	28.28	22.49	144,030	0	1	0
DEPO	21.35	9.85	1,280	0	0	0
DLX	62.86	51.46	3,139	0	0	0
ENTA	43.96	30.13	822	0	0	0
ESI	4.29	1.93	101	0	0	1
EVOL	8.95	7.91	104	0	1	0
FLR	54.56	51.80	8,019	0	0	0
GILD	119.50	81.65	176,502	0	0	0
GME	44.04	31.69	4,743	0	1	0
GORO	2.80	2.62	152	0	1	0
HPQ	30.53	30.27	55,046	0	0	0
HRB	30.58	27.42	8,418	0	1	0
IDCC	57.57	38.64	2,068	0	0	0
IQNT	18.90	10.06	634	0	1	0
KING	14.08	10.68	4,440	0	1	0
KORS	44.91	44.83	9,118	0	0	0
LCI	58.95	33.51	2,130	0	0	0
LQDT	10.22	7.32	307	0	0	1
MSB	13.50	11.41	177	0	1	0
NLNK	44.60	17.32	1,437	0	0	0
NSR	29.88	20.32	1,673	0	0	1
NSU	3.97	3.17	793	0	1	0
OMC	70.84	64.03	17,307	0	1	0
ONE	2.89	2.15	138	0	0	0
OUTR	76.63	51.17	1,418	0	0	0
PBI	21.49	21.15	4,319	0	1	0
PDLI	6.51	6.18	1,065	0	1	0
PPC	23.92	22.39	6,196	0	1	0
PSDV	3.81	3.45	112	0	0	0
QCOM	64.67	62.26	105,606	0	1	0
RPXC	16.82	11.94	951	0	0	0
RTN	97.79	89.17	29,914	0	1	0
SPOK	16.92	12.93	371	0	1	0
STRA	46.04	43.95	505	0	0	0
TDC	37.30	36.53	5,293	0	0	0
TIVO	10.56	10.27	1,025	0	0	0
UIS	20.51	18.72	1,023	0	0	0
VA	27.93	26.50	1,206	0	1	0
VEC	25.21	19.22	265	0	0	0
VIAB	66.43	63.11	26,379	0	0	0
VNCE	12.11	12.07	445	0	0	0
WTW	5.10	4.71	291	0	0	1
XENE	12.19	10.35	173	1	0	0

So you can see the "dog flag": WTW is a dog. Or the new flag, XENE is new etc.

Weekend Update - June 26th, 2015

Weekend Update

Life is pretty good. Not sure if people here use Hulu, but I have a Hulu Plus subscription and they just added all the Seinfeld episodes.  They are still so funny to me and I didn't really start watching the series until season 3 or 4, so many of the early ones are new to me. I also finished book 5 of Game of Thrones series.  While I really enjoy the HBO series, the books (for me) take it to a whole new level.  Now I wait for book 6.

Week Overview

Well, we are essentially halfway through the year.  It has been a successful year for me in total, up 15.4%. Obviously NHTC is a big driver, up over 200%.   But my MFI formula portfolio has been solid, up 8%. This is actually quite good as 50% was in cash at start of year and is still 25% cash.  I have also been pretty successful in discretionary buys (ESI was outstanding as was RIG). But good to remain humble, I was way ahead of market at mid point last year as well. Then GTAT, GNW and oil slump decimated my portfolio. It can happen again.

Reading Barron's was interesting this weekend (I am not done yet).  They interviewed a bond trader who is convinced the Fed is likely to start raising rates in 2015.  He does not think the markets have priced this in and expects a lot of turmoil (he was talking about fixed income market, but I suspect same will be true for equities).  He also commented that a big change now are the numerous ETFs, many of which are liquid in of themselves, but trade in ill-liquid markets.   He expects many more flash crashes in the future.

MFI Select

These tranches continue to motor along.  June has seen them really, really stretch their lead over the benchmark.  I suspect in July, some of this will be given back as NHTC is defying gravity to some extent in my view.

8/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CSCO	$24.40	$28.28	$0.59	18.3%	9.6%
AGX	$36.71	$39.94	$0.70	10.7%	9.6%
ITRN	$21.32	$24.50	$0.87	19.0%	9.6%
BRCD	$9.34	$12.24	$0.15	32.7%	9.6%
CBI	$58.25	$52.62	$0.14	-9.4%	9.6%
Totals				14.3%	9.6%
11/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
FLR	$64.80	$54.56	$0.63	-14.8%	5.1%
IPCM	$38.45	$56.94	$0.00	48.1%	5.1%
VIAB	$72.29	$66.43	$1.06	-6.6%	5.1%
NHTC	$12.19	$42.01	$0.06	245.1%	5.1%
AWRE	$4.40	$4.11	$0.00	-6.6%	5.1%
Totals				53.0%	5.1%
2/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$28.00	$25.21	$0.00	-10.0%	6.6%
QCOM	$62.73	$64.67	$0.90	4.5%	6.6%
VIAB	$63.91	$66.43	$0.73	5.1%	6.6%
UIS	$22.03	$20.51	$0.00	-6.9%	6.6%
NHTC	$12.44	$42.01	$0.05	238.1%	6.6%
Totals				46.2%	6.6%
5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$52.62	$0.00	4.4%	1.4%
PSDV	$4.12	$3.81	$0.00	-7.6%	1.4%
TSRA	$38.94	$38.26	$0.20	-1.2%	1.4%
KORS	$62.24	$44.91	$0.00	-27.8%	1.4%
DEPO	$23.50	$21.35	$0.00	-9.1%	1.4%
Totals				-8.3%	1.4%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	14.3%	53.0%	46.2%	-8.3%	26.8%
Previous Tranche	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	18.3%	19.5%
Tranche -2	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	33.0%	42.3%
MFI Overall Gain	84.3%	151.2%	182.6%	44.3%	115.6%
Current Balance	46,078	62,798	70,644	36,072	215,592
R3K Current Tranche	9.6%	5.1%	6.6%	1.4%	5.7%
R3K Overall Gain	59.9%	64.5%	45.8%	36.0%	51.5%
R3K Balance	39,964	41,119	36,451	33,998	151,531
Annualized IRR	23.8%	42.2%	54.1%	18.7%	36.6%

It is looking more and more like the August tranche will be a winner.  AGX has really moved up nicely of late. CBI seems to spike up for a week or two and then falls back.  Looking at the table just above that has the summary, a 36.6% overall annual IRR is eye-popping.  A few more years of that I will be living high.

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
Current	64.06%	215,592	151,531

Here you can see that if I had started with 100K spread over the 4 tranches in August 2012, I'd be at $215,592 now. Way ahead of benchmark.

MFI Formula

Exciting week.  Wednesday (or maybe Tuesday) I will be kicking off my fourth and final tranche.  As the title says, my picks will be formula driven.  It looks like if run today there are 15 or so names that will be put to the randomizer.

10/1/2014 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BAH	$23.52	$26.05	$0.37	12.3%	9.1%
BKE	$45.55	$46.99	$3.45	10.7%	9.1%
CA	$27.87	$29.89	$0.75	9.9%	9.1%
GME	$41.70	$44.04	$1.05	8.1%	9.1%
NUS	$44.56	$48.50	$1.05	11.2%	9.1%
Totals				10.5%	9.1%
12/31/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CA	$30.83	$29.89	$0.50	-1.4%	2.5%
CSCO	$28.36	$28.28	$0.40	1.1%	2.5%
RGR	$34.81	$57.15	$0.49	65.6%	2.5%
GME	$34.21	$44.04	$0.72	30.8%	2.5%
IQNT	$19.87	$18.90	$0.30	-3.4%	2.5%
Totals				18.5%	2.5%
3/31/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
HRB	$31.99	$30.58	$0.20	-3.8%	1.3%
GME	$37.69	$44.04	$0.36	17.8%	1.3%
KING	$15.85	$14.08	$0.00	-11.2%	1.3%
NSU	$3.43	$3.97	$0.00	15.7%	1.3%
PPC	$22.65	$23.92	$0.00	5.6%	1.3%
Totals				4.8%	1.3%

So all three open tranches winning. The 12/31 tranche is especially outstanding.

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
Current	5.24%	108,453	103,218

You can see where the 100K has one.  Solid start, but still early days.

Gotta run, off to see Kinky Boots!  I know nothing about it (besides Cyndi Lauper writing the score.  Should be fun.