Went with my son's performance group to the Met last night to see Don Giovanni. I really enjoyed it. The words were translated and that helped a lot. It actually was pretty funny and bawdy. He was quite the scoundrel, based on the Don Juan character.
Last week was another decent week for my portfolio, though it seemed to get worse each day. The R3K declined during the week. So I have expanded my "lead". I am up 7% for the year versus 1.4% for the benchmark.
MFI Select
This portfolio is never dull. It actually did well in the first week of March and expanded it's overall lead again R3K from 25.2 points to 28.5 points. The tranches were really helped by NHTC. And now two tranches are leading and my open positions are up by an average of 1.6 points.
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $22.59 | $0.00 | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.71 | $1.00 | 10.7% | 11.8% |
| $22.79 | $28.93 | $0.57 | 29.4% | 11.8% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $22.08 | $0.00 | -14.5% | 11.8% |
| $28.78 | $27.35 | $0.70 | -2.5% | 11.8% | |
| Totals | 7.7% | 11.8% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $28.93 | $0.38 | 20.1% | 7.1% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $31.63 | $0.70 | -11.9% | 7.1% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $22.54 | $0.38 | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| $9.34 | $12.13 | $0.07 | 30.7% | 7.1% | |
| $58.25 | $45.26 | $0.14 | -22.1% | 7.1% | |
| Totals | 4.9% | 7.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $57.29 | $0.42 | -10.9% | 2.7% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $42.31 | $0.00 | 10.0% | 2.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $70.32 | $0.33 | -2.3% | 2.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $15.65 | $0.01 | 28.5% | 2.7% |
| $4.40 | $4.52 | $0.00 | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Totals | 5.6% | 2.7% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| VEC | $28.00 | $31.35 | $0.00 | 12.0% | 4.1% |
| $62.73 | $71.51 | $0.42 | 14.7% | 4.1% | |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $70.32 | $0.00 | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| $22.03 | $23.77 | $0.00 | 7.9% | 4.1% | |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $15.65 | $0.00 | 25.8% | 4.1% |
| Totals | 14.1% | 4.1% |
Wow, that February 1st tranche is really firing on all cylinders. The May tranche has some work to do to get to the benchmark. If it loses, it would be my 3rd straight loser.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 4.9% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 21.9% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | - | 34.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 69.1% | 73.3% | 120.5% | 43.3% | 76.6% |
| Current Balance | 42,286 | 43,337 | 55,130 | 35,820 | 176,573 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 11.8% | 6.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 56.2% | 60.7% | 42.4% | 32.9% | 48.1% |
| R3K Balance | 39,045 | 40,171 | 35,606 | 33,234 | 148,056 |
| Annualized IRR | 22.8% | 26.9% | 45.9% | 21.6% | 27.0% |
| Date | Differential | Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | |
| 20.63% | 162,833 | |
| 25.15% | 175,476 | |
| Current | 28.52% | 176,573 |
MFI Formula
As my readers know, this is a new approach for me, almost 6 months in. It is a formula approach, using a subset of the official list and a random number generator. So far, it has been a terrfiic success.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $29.02 | $0.24 | 24.4% | 6.6% |
| $45.55 | $47.93 | $3.22 | 12.3% | 6.6% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $31.71 | $0.50 | 15.6% | 6.6% |
| $41.70 | $40.16 | $0.33 | -2.9% | 6.6% | |
| $44.56 | $54.31 | $0.70 | 23.4% | 6.6% | |
| Totals | 14.6% | 6.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $31.71 | $0.25 | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| $28.36 | $28.93 | $0.19 | 2.7% | 0.2% | |
| $34.81 | $55.18 | $0.00 | 58.5% | 0.2% | |
| $34.21 | $40.16 | $0.00 | 17.4% | 0.2% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $15.59 | $0.15 | -20.8% | 0.2% |
| Totals | 12.3% | 0.2% |
| Date | Differential | Value |
| 0.00% | 100,000 | |
| 1.63% | 102,288 | |
| 0.30% | 101,375 | |
| -0.33% | 100,664 | |
| 1.67% | 101,281 | |
| 3.62% | 106,073 | |
| Current | 5.02% | 106,683 |
A five point lead on R3K is pretty darned impressive given that 50,000 of the $100,000 has yet to be put to work.
Thoughts
While I am doing well, MFI is not exactly flourishing. My index is only up 40 basis points on the year. And GARIX, a mutual fund that has long and short MFI positions is down 2.2% YTD.
I am still trying options on UCO. So far I have broken even:
| Type | Date | Shares | Purchase | Current | Cost | Value | Gain/Loss | Strike | X Date |
| Stock | 3,000 | $8.69 | $8.11 | 26,070 | 24,330 | (1,740) | |||
| Stock | 3,000 | $8.34 | $8.11 | 25,020 | 24,330 | (690) | |||
| Sold Call | 3,000 | $0.20 | 600 | 600 | 9.50 | ||||
| Sold Call | 3,000 | $0.25 | 750 | 750 | 9.00 | ||||
| Sold Call | 3,000 | $0.45 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 9.00 | ||||
| Overall | 270 |
Recent Buys
Most of my recent buys have worked very well.
- At the end of last week, I increased my GNW position by 70%. The stock is up 5.4% since.
- I also added last week to BAC warrants. BAC did well in stress test this week so am up 5%.
- BXE, a Seth Klarman pick, is up 7% for me.
- I sold my MNDO this week for a fast 17% gain.
That is all for now. Have a great weekend.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment