Saturday, March 07, 2015

MFI Meanderings

Random Thoughts

If I were picking my upcoming April 1st Formula tranche, here are what my options would be:

Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 HRB                  8,841         32.12                0.80 2.5%
2 BKE                  2,319         47.93                3.66 7.6%
3 CA                13,899         31.71                1.00 3.2%
4 CSCO              147,720         28.93                0.76 2.6%
5 GME                  4,389         40.16                1.44 3.6%
6 KING                  4,656         14.46                1.40 9.7%
7 MSFT              348,115         42.36                1.18 2.8%
8 PDLI                  1,080           6.70                0.60 9.0%
9 PPC                  6,845         26.43                5.77 21.8%
10 PBI                  4,442         22.10                0.75 3.4%


So while I have BKE, CA, CSCO & GME in my two open tranches, I will have a chance (it seems) at some new names.  I will definitely drop PDLI, I did some research on them and they are like GNI a year ago or so.  The income will be drying up soon.

MFI Index

Here are the 50 stocks in my MFI Index. It has been a struggle in 2015.

Index Stock Start 27-Feb Current YTD Change           March          Change
1   ADMS      17.37         17.28         16.86 -2.9% -2.4%
2   AFOP      14.51         16.40         17.65 21.6% 7.6%
3   ANIK      40.74         39.92         39.63 -2.7% -0.7%
4   APOL      34.11         27.65         27.06 -20.7% -2.1%
5   AGX      33.64         32.43         31.63 -6.0% -2.5%
6   AVID      14.21         15.68         15.70 10.5% 0.1%
7   AWRE         4.54           4.52            4.52 -0.4% 0.0%
8   BCOR      13.85         14.82         14.39 3.9% -2.9%
9   BKE      52.52         53.30         50.93 -3.0% -4.4%
10   CA      30.45         32.77         31.96 5.0% -2.5%
11   CSCO      27.82         29.70         29.12 4.7% -2.0%
12   COH      37.56         43.55         41.77 11.2% -4.1%
13   DLX      62.25         66.85         64.14 3.0% -4.1%
14   DEPO      16.11         21.95         23.44 45.5% 6.8%
15   EBIX      16.99         26.36         25.25 48.6% -4.2%
16   FLR      60.63         58.21         57.50 -5.2% -1.2%
17   GME      33.80         36.97         40.16 18.8% 8.6%
18   GORO         3.38           3.48            3.18 -5.9% -8.6%
19   ONE         4.21           3.30            2.86 -32.1% -13.3%
20   IQNT      19.63         14.90         15.74 -19.8% 5.6%
21   IDCC      52.90         53.07         52.27 -1.2% -1.5%
22   IILG      20.89         27.00         25.50 22.1% -5.6%
23   ITRN      22.04         23.04         22.54 2.3% -2.2%
24   KING      15.36         14.85         15.40 0.3% 3.7%
25   LCI      42.88         62.40         63.20 47.4% 1.3%
26   LFVN         1.30           0.98            0.80 -38.5% -18.4%
27   LQDT         8.17           9.88            9.69 18.6% -1.9%
28   MSB      17.28         18.07         17.99 4.1% -0.4%
29   NHTC      11.45         13.05         15.65 36.7% 19.9%
30   NSR      27.80         26.52         22.08 -20.6% -16.7%
31   NUS      43.70         54.53         54.66 25.1% 0.2%
32   PDLI         7.71           6.98            6.70 -13.1% 0.0%
33   PFMT         6.65           5.25            4.23 -36.4% -19.4%
34   PETS      14.37         15.56         15.39 7.1% -1.1%
35   PBI      24.37         23.36         22.29 -8.5% -4.6%
36   RPXC      13.78         14.58         14.23 3.3% -2.4%
37   SPOK      17.36         18.59         17.36 0.0% -6.6%
38   STRA      74.28         60.87         59.77 -19.5% -1.8%
39   RGR      34.63         51.96         55.18 59.3% 6.2%
40   TTWO      28.03         26.49         24.81 -11.5% -6.3%
41   TDC      43.68         44.52         42.89 -1.8% -3.7%
42   TZOO      12.62         10.08            9.77 -22.6% -3.1%
43   TPUB      22.90         21.50         18.19 -20.6% -15.4%
44   UBNT      29.64         31.64         31.38 5.9% -0.8%
45   UIS      29.48         22.64         23.77 -19.4% 5.0%
46   USNA    102.59      100.01         98.80 -3.7% -1.2%
47   VEC      27.40         31.81         31.35 14.4% -1.4%
48   VIAB      75.25         69.94         70.32 -6.6% 0.5%
49   WTW      24.84         11.33            9.47 -61.9% -16.4%
50   WILN         2.99           2.64            2.56 -14.4% -3.0%
Total    19,816 0.4%

You can see that 6 of the 50 stocks are down double digits just in March.

Dogs of MFI

My study last week showed that MFI stocks from a year ago that dropped 30% or more and were still on the list had better than average prospects going forward.  Here are stocks from my March 2014 tracking portfolio that are down 30% or more:

Stock End Price Percent Change  52 week low 
ESI 7.47 -73%                 3.66
PTIE 1.82 -68%                 1.61
LQDT 9.69 -63%                 7.32
WTW 9.47 -54%                 9.36
PFMT 4.23 -54%                 3.65
HLF 32.69 -41%                27.60
NSR 22.08 -34%                20.32
NUS 54.31 -33%                38.12
SPRT 1.74 -30%                 1.63

LQDT, PFMT & NSR are down 30% or more and still on the list.  Whew!  It would take some moxie to buy any of those.

4 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,,

The dogs are not 1 +B except for three names. You have proved that the small caps screw MFI.

Marsh_Gerda said...

John - my work last week showed that both large and small cap stocks MFI dogs in the lowest two deciles (which on average was a 30% drop) out performed the broader universe.

small was 30% and +9.2% for top 2 deciles and large was +25% and +21%.

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Ran the random sorter 5 times on your 9 names. The worst one for you was: only one new names 5% in MSFT 15% GME 15% BKE 10% CA 10% CSCO.

The best one had four new names and a 10% position in CSCO.

Erik said...

How many of the "worst" performers can you generate ? The negative 30% over a full year ...over however many years back you can manage - there should be a pattern somewhere...