As a result of my tedious work, I was able to create, going back to 2006, the results by dividend yield. Now the average gain of all MFI stocks has been 10%, to put things in perspective:
Yield Range | Pct Gain |
no dividend | 5.4% |
Under 1% | 8.5% |
1% to 2.6% | 9.5% |
2.6% to 4% | 20.7% |
4% to 6% | 26.6% |
6% to 10% | 10.6% |
over 10% | 19.7% |
No big surprise here. Results are much better with a 2.6% yield or greater. Interestingly, they drop off at 6% and higher. Anything magical about 2.6%? Let us try expanding that range to 2% to 4%.
Yield Range | Pct Gain |
no dividend | 5.4% |
Under 1% | 8.5% |
2.0% to 4% | 17.1% |
4% to 6% | 26.6% |
6% to 10% | 10.6% |
over 10% | 19.7% |
Grand Total | 10.0% |
Seems 2.6% cut off does better.
Now let us compare each of the gains with the benchmark (it seems possible when dividends are higher, perhaps benchmark does better?).
Yield Range | Pct Gain | Benchmark Gain |
no dividend | 5.4% | 9.2% |
Under 1% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
1% to 2.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% |
2.6% to 4% | 20.7% | 11.6% |
4% to 6% | 26.6% | 12.0% |
6% to 10% | 10.6% | 8.0% |
over 10% | 19.7% | 11.2% |
Not so much. The benchmark does seem to do better at 2.6% stock yield and higher (10.7% versus 8.2%). It does make some sense as a stock is more likely to yield over 2.6% when the overall markets are down (like in 2009).
I did one final cut, by market cap. I will not show the table here as it is proprietary. But I will say that for larger market caps, things look good as the dividend increases, even a strong correlation than the overall table above.
No comments:
Post a Comment