Please Pass the Donuts

Bennie and the Jets

With apologies to Sir Elton John and CNBC, Ben Bernanke certainly turned on the jets Thursday afternoon with QE3.  I am not smart enough to know if playing economic gods by the Fed will ultimately be a smart move or a dumb move (although I have seen leverage end poorly before); but it does help "fatten" portfolio returns.  I guess if you think there will be inflation down the road, future value of stocks will increase as well.

My dividend portfolio was up 2.9% on the week, which certainly started right with the buyout of KSW (KSW to be acquired for $32.1 million). My MFI Index was up 3.5% on the week. 

MFI Index

I have an MFI Index that tracks the movement of 50 MFI stocks day by day, week by week and year by year.  Here is how the MFI index did the past week along with YTD figures:

Stock	Start	Last Week	Current	YTD Change	Weekly Change
AFAM	16.58	21.92	21.50	29.7%	-1.9%
AMED	10.91	15.84	15.40	41.2%	-2.8%
APOL	53.87	30.29	29.42	-45.4%	-2.9%
AMAT	10.71	12.02	12.29	14.7%	2.2%
ASTX	1.89	3.15	3.31	75.1%	5.1%
CJES	20.93	20.45	22.40	7.0%	9.5%
CPLA	36.05	34.03	36.78	2.0%	8.1%
CECO	7.97	3.64	4.04	-49.3%	11.0%
CRAY	6.47	11.87	11.94	84.5%	0.6%
CPIX	5.38	6.03	6.04	12.3%	0.2%
DELL	14.63	10.64	10.83	-26.0%	1.8%
DLX	22.76	30.21	32.81	44.2%	8.6%
DLB	30.51	34.46	35.42	16.1%	2.8%
XLS	9.05	10.37	11.09	22.5%	6.9%
EXPE	29.02	54.11	55.88	92.6%	3.3%
FRX	30.26	35.37	34.87	15.2%	-1.4%
GTAT	7.24	6.03	6.52	-9.9%	8.1%
GME	24.13	21.96	23.70	-1.8%	7.9%
GTIV	6.75	12.40	12.56	86.1%	1.3%
GNI	110.25	75.39	86.40	-21.6%	14.6%
ESI	56.89	36.38	39.98	-29.7%	9.9%
KLAC	48.25	52.55	53.53	10.9%	1.9%
KLIC	9.25	11.40	12.00	29.7%	5.3%
LRCX	37.02	34.72	34.35	-7.2%	-1.1%
LPS	15.07	28.74	29.28	94.3%	1.9%
MEDW	12.82	14.75	21.93	71.1%	48.7%
MANT	31.24	23.23	23.95	-23.3%	3.1%
MDF	7.47	8.51	8.50	13.8%	-0.1%
MSFT	25.96	31.35	31.81	22.5%	1.5%
MNTA	17.39	14.60	14.96	-14.0%	2.5%
NSU	5.53	4.69	4.53	-18.1%	-3.4%
NOC	58.48	68.37	67.93	16.2%	-0.6%
NVMI	7.37	7.45	7.51	1.9%	0.8%
PDLI	6.20	7.67	7.99	28.9%	4.2%
PETS	10.38	10.83	11.08	6.7%	2.4%
PWER	3.91	5.80	6.14	57.0%	5.9%
RTN	48.38	58.32	58.81	21.6%	0.8%
SAI	12.29	12.36	13.22	7.6%	7.0%
SNDK	49.21	44.26	45.69	-7.2%	3.2%
SAVE	15.60	19.73	16.58	6.3%	-16.0%
TNAV	7.81	6.03	6.23	-20.2%	3.3%
TER	13.63	16.28	16.43	20.5%	0.9%
TSRA	16.75	15.11	14.91	-11.0%	-1.3%
USMO	13.87	11.68	12.47	-10.1%	6.7%
USNA	30.37	46.58	46.00	51.5%	-1.2%
UIS	19.71	22.37	22.64	14.9%	1.2%
EGY	6.04	8.45	9.09	50.5%	7.6%
VECO	20.80	36.00	37.76	81.5%	4.9%
VPHM	27.39	27.47	28.07	2.5%	2.2%
VG	2.45	2.28	2.47	0.8%	8.3%
Totals	10,631	12,030	12,457	17.2%	3.5%

Starting to look ok. Obviously helped by buyout of MEDW.

Dividend Portfolio

Probably not the best timing by me as I have been selling some of my dividend stocks recently and this portfolio is about 15% in cash. Still, it was up 2.9% on the week even with the ballast. I also had several stocks go x dividend!

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BHK	2,212	12.72	15.51	2,108	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%
CSCO	4,230	17.19	19.49	825	14.5%	10.2%	4.3%
CSQ	5,367	8.24	10.27	4,114	33.9%	26.0%	7.9%
FCX	1,021	37.55	42.64	749	15.5%	14.5%	1.1%
FSC	2,727	9.79	10.89	1,270	16.0%	8.1%	7.9%
HFC	1,087	33.90	41.97	1,814	28.7%	6.7%	22.0%
INTC	1,702	20.79	23.37	1,559	16.8%	21.8%	-5.0%
JPM	1,661	35.18	41.57	494	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%
JQC	4,108	9.10	9.54	3,833	15.1%	9.7%	5.5%
KMF	1,817	21.86	29.14	2,847	40.5%	22.4%	18.1%
KSS	632	48.18	53.40	400	12.1%	8.4%	3.7%
MPC	579	43.89	55.61	343	28.1%	7.7%	20.4%
MSFT	965	26.83	31.21	1,267	21.2%	19.6%	1.6%
O	550	19.09	42.20	7,129	188.9%	74.6%	114.4%
OIBAX	3,850	4.90	6.55	6,353	67.3%	74.6%	-7.4%
PGR	2,000	20.48	20.81	-	1.6%	8.5%	-6.9%
PRE	1,032	61.96	76.53	2,186	26.9%	14.5%	12.4%
PVD	417	64.11	94.66	2,737	57.9%	22.6%	35.3%
SAI	3,929	13.04	12.98	821	1.1%	4.3%	-3.2%
STO	1,040	23.82	26.99	1,121	17.9%	24.4%	-6.5%
TROX	2,023	24.12	25.91	500	8.4%	8.2%	0.2%
VIVHY	2,296	16.70	20.67	3,749	33.6%	7.1%	26.5%
WBK	508	105.89	127.60	6,166	32.0%	20.2%	11.8%
Total Open				52,386	24.5%	15.3%	9.2%
Closed					10.3%	9.1%	1.2%
Combined					14.8%	11.1%	3.7%
IRR Since 12/31/10					16.7%
2012 Gain					23.2%

Then here are my expected dividends in next 12 months, you can see this has declined from close to $60,000 as I sold off some holdings.

Stock	Shares	Ann Dividend / Share	Yield	Projected Dividend
BHK	2,212	$    0.88	5.6%	1,938
CSCO	4,230	$    0.56	2.9%	2,369
CSQ	5,367	$    0.84	8.2%	4,508
FCX	1,021	$    1.24	2.9%	1,266
FSC	2,727	$    1.15	10.6%	3,135
HFC	1,087	$    1.40	3.3%	1,521
INTC	1,702	$    0.92	3.9%	1,566
JPM	1,661	$    1.20	2.9%	1,993
JQC	4,108	$    0.80	8.4%	3,287
KMF	1,817	$    1.72	5.9%	3,125
KSS	632	$    1.28	2.4%	809
MPC	579	$    1.40	2.5%	810
MSFT	965	$    0.80	2.6%	772
O	550	$    1.72	4.1%	946
OIBAX	3,850	$    0.34	5.2%	1,305
PGR	2,000	$    0.41	2.0%	820
PRE	1,032	$    2.56	3.3%	2,641
PVD	417	$    5.13	5.4%	2,140
SAI	3,929	$    0.48	3.7%	1,886
STO	1,040	$    0.98	3.6%	1,019
TROX	2,023	$    1.25	4.8%	2,528
VIVHY	2,296	$    1.30	6.3%	2,985
WBK	508	$    8.13	6.4%	4,126
Total			4.6%	47,496

Finally, here are upcoming dividends, October I will be busy getting dividend checks!

Stock	Shares	x Date	Div/Share	Est New Shares	Amount
HFC	1,087	9/25/12	$      0.50	12.0	543
OIBAX	3,850	9/30/12	$      0.02	12.0	81
O	550	9/30/12	$      0.15	1.0	80
CSCO	4,230	10/2/12	$      0.14	30.0	592
JPM	1,661	10/3/12	$      0.30	11.0	498
CSQ	5,367	10/8/12	$      0.07	36.0	376
FCX	1,021	10/11/12	$      0.31	7.0	316
KMF	1,817	10/11/12	$      0.43	26.0	781
JQC	4,108	10/12/12	$      0.07	28.0	274
BHK	2,212	10/12/12	$      0.07	10.0	162
SAI	3,929	10/12/12	$      0.12	36.0	471

MFI August 15th Tranche

My fab five from my 1st new tranche continues to do well.  One month down, 11 to go. If I repeat this month 11 more times and if I started with $100,000, I would end the year with $366,000.  Silly I know, but fun to dream.

August 15 Tranche
Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$35.42	$0.00	2.9%	5.0%
KFY	$13.98	$15.87	$0.00	13.5%	5.0%
MSFT	$30.19	$31.21	$0.00	3.4%	5.0%
NSU	$3.62	$4.48	$0.00	23.9%	5.0%
UIS	$19.96	$22.64	$0.00	13.4%	5.0%
Totals				11.4%	5.0%

Not much else to say. I guess I will close with a look at my 12 open monthly MFI tracking portfolios. While these have underperformed for the last couple of years, the more recent portfolios appear to be gaining some steam. The most recent 5 are winning.

Month                               MFI         R3K

9/30/2011	29.4%	32.3%
10/28/2011	9.6%	15.9%
11/25/2011	26.1%	28.7%
12/29/2011	17.3%	17.8%
1/27/2012	8.5%	12.2%
2/24/2012	6.0%	7.9%
3/23/2012	4.0%	5.6%
4/27/2012	6.2%	5.1%
5/25/2012	13.8%	11.9%
6/22/2012	14.3%	10.7%
7/27/2012	11.3%	6.6%
8/24/2012	7.2%	4.5%