Turn Up the Volume

Not sure if any of my 22 faithful readers ever watch CNBC, but it is a morning ritual for me.  I like to watch Joe, Becky (fellow Hoosier) and Andrew tell me what has happened in the past day. I have to say though, that while I like CNBC for it's entertainment value, I find it generally a poor vehicle for investment ideas.  If you watch it long enough, you will here somebody support anything. Buy Facebook, Sell Facebook, buy Gold, sell Gold.  The talking heads go on and on.

That being said, there is one person I do turn up the volume for and pay full attention.  That is Jim Chanos.   I do not think there is a smarter investor out there.  For those who live under a rock, Chanos is a famed short seller.  So he typically is looking for stocks and sectors that will go down.  There have been times in the past where I rationalized he was wrong.  He disagrees regularly with MFI stocks as they can be "value traps" and that is often what he shorts.  He has warned many times about China, he has warned about home care stocks (like Amedysis) and he has warned about for-profit education.

Turn Up the Volume Today

So what did he say today?

1. He said anything Chinese-related is totally un-trustworthy.  Many finanicals from companies are bogus and even the gov't is publishing bogus numbers.
2. He said he is long JPM and C, but this is offseting his short position of Spanish banks (which I believe he means SAN).
3. He is short HPQ, says they are a mess and not in anyting attractive and there is a longer term shift away from PCs.  Interestingly, he is long Microsoft to counter his short.

His discussion made me look for other recent things he said.  I found this presentation from June (Jim Chanos: A Search for Global Value... TRAPS!).  This is a great quick read I encourage all to review.

The other shorts he mentions are Coinstar (as the world moves away from physical media and streams more and more), state-owned petrochemical companies like PBR  and CNX (as he believes coal can not compete with Natural Gas).  He also discusses signs one should look for.

Great stuff!

Still Trucking

Even though I have moved to a larger cash position than I have had in a while, my portfolio continues to truck along.  The "New" MFI is exceeding my wildest expectations, of course it helps that NSU is up 35%.

Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$34.85	$0.00	1.2%	4.4%
KFY	$13.98	$15.59	$0.00	11.5%	4.4%
MSFT	$30.19	$31.45	$0.00	4.2%	4.4%
NSU	$3.62	$4.88	$0.00	35.0%	4.4%
UIS	$19.96	$22.51	$0.00	12.8%	4.4%
Totals				12.9%	4.4%

Then my "boring" dividend portfolio is now up an almost unbelievable 22.4% on the year.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BHK	2,213	12.72	15.40	2,108	28.6%	8.2%	20.4%
CSCO	4,230	17.19	19.11	825	12.3%	9.6%	2.7%
CSQ	5,367	8.24	10.23	4,114	33.4%	25.3%	8.2%
FCX	1,021	37.55	40.93	749	11.0%	13.8%	-2.8%
FSC	2,727	9.79	10.86	1,270	15.7%	7.5%	8.2%
HFC	1,087	33.90	41.91	1,814	28.5%	6.1%	22.5%
INTC	1,702	20.79	23.18	1,559	15.9%	21.1%	-5.2%
JPM	1,661	35.18	41.25	494	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%
JQC	4,108	9.10	9.64	3,833	16.2%	9.0%	7.2%
KMF	1,817	21.86	29.17	2,847	40.6%	21.7%	18.9%
KSS	632	48.18	53.07	400	11.5%	7.8%	3.6%
MPC	579	43.89	53.37	343	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%
MSFT	965	26.83	31.45	1,267	22.1%	18.9%	3.2%
O	550	19.09	41.19	7,129	183.6%	73.5%	110.1%
OIBAX	3,850	4.90	6.52	6,353	66.7%	73.6%	-7.0%
PGR	2,000	20.48	21.00	-	2.5%	7.9%	-5.4%
PRE	1,032	61.96	75.82	2,186	25.8%	13.8%	11.9%
PVD	417	64.11	95.45	2,737	59.1%	21.9%	37.3%
SAI	3,929	13.04	12.71	821	-1.0%	3.7%	-4.7%
STO	1,040	23.82	26.42	1,121	15.5%	23.7%	-8.2%
TROX	2,023	24.12	27.27	500	14.1%	7.6%	6.5%
VIVHY	2,296	16.70	19.75	3,749	28.0%	6.4%	21.6%
WBK	508	105.89	126.58	6,166	31.0%	19.5%	11.5%
Total Open				52,386	23.6%	14.6%	9.0%
Closed					10.3%	9.1%	1.2%
Combined					14.5%	10.9%	3.7%
IRR Since 12/31/10					16.2%
2012 Gain					22.4%

I do worry about what happens to this portfolio should Washington drive us over the proverbial fiscal cliff and dividend tax rates go from 15% to 39%.  It would not be pretty.  I have to assume our Representative are smart enough to know that and God knows there is plenty of room for compromises.