Sunday, September 04, 2011

Had Enough

Guys and Gals, I think I have had enough of the magic formula. I will continue to check the website and look at the stocks, but I am going to be moving to more of an income-producing approach. I sold DELL, VECO and SNDK on Friday as I am going to go more into cash until the market finishes it's drop.

It was a difficult decision, primarily because of this blog. But the fact remains that I have been pretty faithful for 5+ years and I am down over 10%. That is real money for my family. My "MFI Index" is essentially flat over the 5+ years, so the method has not exactly been high-flying.

I am not sure what I'll do about my blog and all my score-keeping etc. I will likely continue, but probably not every week. If anyone wants to take it over from me, that would be fine. I will give out the spreadsheets I have created.

Here is the current top 200:

Ticker Rank Date Stock Price Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Yahoo Yield
STV 1 9/4 4.74 280 44% 1898% 0.0%
SUPG 2 9/3 2.04 125 466% 480% 0.0%
LMLP 3 9/4 2.85 83 30% 12172% 0.0%
MAIL 4 9/4 5.84 59 37% 850% 21.4%
DEPO 5 9/3 5.88 318 26% 5729% 0.0%
TNAV 6 9/3 8.80 401 31% 756% 0.0%
PDLI 7 9/3 5.80 1,079 23% 637869% 13.6%
AGX 8 9/4 9.60 131 25% 1051% 0.0%
TSRA 9 9/3 13.27 683 60% 256% 0.0%
XNY 10 9/4 2.27 132 711% 213% 0.0%
VECO 11 9/3 33.00 1,419 39% 262% 0.0%
LACO 12 9/4 2.37 63 718% 209% 0.0%
BPI 13 9/3 20.40 1,182 27% 365% 0.0%
NVMI 14 9/4 6.38 173 33% 275% 0.0%
ESI 15 9/3 67.27 1,865 29% 295% 0.0%
CRAY 16 9/3 5.34 187 51% 194% 0.0%
MNTA 17 9/3 16.13 823 33% 212% 0.0%
GAME 18 9/3 5.40 1,537 20% 547% 0.0%
CPLA 19 9/3 30.42 477 31% 210% 0.0%
APOL 20 9/3 44.55 6,252 25% 257% 0.0%
SNDK 21 9/3 34.94 8,521 21% 320% 0.0%
PRX 22 9/3 28.50 1,046 24% 242% 0.0%
AFAM 23 9/4 18.18 170 37% 140% 0.0%
RIMG 24 9/4 12.93 124 240% 113% 2.3%
SAVE 25 9/3 11.74 843 17% 546% 0.0%
DELL 26 9/3 14.24 26,643 20% 232% 0.0%
UIS 27 9/3 16.30 703 29% 140% 0.0%
LTXC 28 9/3 5.53 279 43% 114% 0.0%
FRX 29 9/3 33.10 9,479 21% 202% 0.0%
DJCO 30 9/4 68.85 95 35% 120% 0.0%
CNGL 31 9/4 1.74 64 228% 105% 0.0%
KLIC 32 9/3 7.98 592 58% 109% 0.0%
VPHM 33 9/3 18.61 1,665 18% 287% 0.0%
ASYS 34 9/3 10.05 99 167% 100% 0.0%
USMO 35 9/3 14.73 332 20% 196% 13.3%
UEPS 36 9/3 6.15 278 28% 120% 0.0%
CHKE 37 9/4 12.99 111 16% 356% 7.5%
LPS 38 9/3 16.35 1,403 19% 189% 2.3%
HRB 39 9/3 13.41 4,097 17% 270% 4.0%
CECO 40 9/3 15.36 1,160 39% 102% 0.0%
EGY 41 9/3 5.81 337 51% 97% 0.0%
RIMM 42 9/3 30.12 15,799 33% 104% 0.0%
PWER 43 9/3 6.88 965 37% 102% 0.0%
ACAD 44 9/3 1.30 68 14% 2304% 0.0%
AMAT 45 9/3 10.84 14,417 25% 113% 2.7%
KLAC 46 9/3 34.82 5,950 25% 114% 3.1%
AVEO 47 9/3 15.91 586 16% 334% 0.0%
STRA 48 9/3 90.11 1,058 18% 171% 4.4%
AMED 49 9/3 15.37 446 27% 107% 0.0%
USNA 50 9/3 25.22 397 21% 126% 0.0%
KFY 51 9/3 14.85 700 17% 194% 0.0%
LIWA 52 9/3 5.93 179 78% 82% 0.0%
TER 53 9/3 11.49 2,648 21% 121% 0.0%
MANT 54 9/3 34.09 1,254 18% 149% 0.0%
DLB 55 9/3 32.12 3,609 16% 255% 0.0%
LRCX 56 9/3 36.22 4,531 26% 102% 0.0%
CYOU 57 9/3 36.13 1,926 15% 387% 0.0%
AZN 58 9/3 45.08 62,526 19% 125% 5.8%
MSFT 59 9/3 25.80 219,842 15% 333% 2.4%
PRSC 60 9/4 10.21 136 18% 135% 0.0%
PETS 61 9/3 9.70 211 19% 122% 5.0%
CMTL 62 9/3 27.34 885 23% 100% 3.6%
GTIV 63 9/3 6.64 205 18% 128% 0.0%
OSK 64 9/3 18.00 1,650 28% 83% 0.0%
DLX 65 9/3 20.30 1,049 15% 231% 4.8%
GNI 66 9/4 105.40 158 14% 498% 12.1%
DV 67 9/3 40.74 2,847 19% 105% 0.6%
NOC 68 9/3 51.80 14,877 19% 107% 15.5%
CNTF 69 9/3 2.56 136 1093% 65% 0.0%
NOK 70 9/3 6.34 23,540 18% 119% 8.2%
MDP 71 9/3 23.84 1,089 18% 121% 4.0%
WSTG 72 9/4 10.93 51 20% 101% 7.1%
ENTR 73 9/3 4.08 364 26% 81% 0.0%
SPRD 74 9/3 18.45 1,001 14% 343% 0.3%
MED 75 9/3 14.82 214 19% 102% 0.0%
UNTD 76 9/3 5.29 469 15% 171% 7.5%
RTN 77 9/3 41.27 14,738 18% 112% 3.8%
NSR 78 9/3 23.89 1,792 15% 185% 0.0%
MDCO 79 9/3 13.99 760 14% 307% 0.0%
AIXG 80 9/3 20.38 2,074 24% 82% 3.9%
HPQ 81 9/3 24.34 50,627 20% 91% 1.4%
CUB 82 9/3 39.96 1,068 14% 226% 0.7%
GME 83 9/3 22.15 3,150 21% 86% 0.0%
ADI 84 9/3 32.01 9,883 15% 144% 2.9%
MKSI 85 9/3 22.10 1,169 32% 67% 1.3%
MBND 86 9/4 3.07 59 14% 201% 0.0%
ARO 87 9/3 10.52 855 34% 65% 0.0%
CSCO 88 9/3 15.41 84,693 14% 220% 0.8%
LHCG 89 9/3 18.32 336 21% 79% 0.0%
IPXL 90 9/3 18.81 1,273 18% 92% 0.0%
EME 91 9/3 21.08 1,446 18% 92% 0.0%
DGIT 92 9/3 20.20 561 18% 99% 0.0%
CEL 93 9/3 21.82 2,171 18% 90% 16.4%
MRVL 94 9/3 12.89 8,032 15% 154% 0.0%
NVLS 95 9/3 27.17 2,230 22% 76% 0.0%
CPIX 96 9/4 5.98 124 16% 109% 0.0%
GURE 97 9/3 1.79 64 2017% 58% 0.0%
LINC 98 9/3 8.93 201 46% 60% 8.1%
SAI 99 9/3 12.94 4,387 19% 83% 0.0%
CBST 100 9/3 32.90 1,991 14% 202% 0.0%
CHOP 101 9/4 3.87 229 63% 57% 0.0%
ASEI 102 9/4 63.07 589 17% 94% 2.3%
EDS 103 9/4 4.15 130 240% 55% 0.0%
CREG 104 9/4 1.39 77 21% 72% 0.0%
PWRD 105 9/3 20.28 1,073 19% 75% 0.0%
CSGS 106 9/3 12.74 423 18% 81% 0.0%
HITK 107 9/3 28.53 370 21% 68% 0.0%
CBPO 108 9/4 7.63 204 34% 58% 0.0%
MIPS 109 9/3 5.19 281 11% 1015% 0.0%
OSIR 110 9/4 5.01 166 12% 555% 0.0%
MCO 111 9/3 29.34 6,792 12% 277% 1.7%
BRKS 112 9/3 8.53 556 27% 60% 0.0%
WU 113 9/3 16.00 10,173 11% 710% 1.7%
CA 114 9/3 20.15 10,095 12% 307% 0.9%
ICON 115 9/3 17.50 1,320 12% 466% 0.0%
MYGN 116 9/3 18.62 1,640 12% 261% 0.0%
GPS 117 9/3 15.60 8,502 23% 62% 2.7%
MEDW 118 9/4 11.17 92 11% 688% 0.0%
GD 119 9/3 60.94 22,634 17% 81% 2.8%
INTC 120 9/3 19.64 106,861 17% 76% 3.7%
SPU 121 9/4 2.26 60 1280% 50% 0.0%
MPAA 122 9/4 9.75 120 13% 154% 0.0%
OVTI 123 9/3 17.35 1,065 25% 58% 0.0%
EXPR 124 9/3 17.47 1,552 14% 112% 0.0%
WSTL 125 9/3 2.27 159 32% 53% 0.0%
LXK 126 9/3 30.55 2,444 27% 55% 0.0%
OMPI 127 9/3 9.63 180 14% 109% 0.0%
DNB 128 9/3 63.66 3,164 11% 894% 2.2%
QLGC 129 9/3 13.04 1,379 15% 97% 0.0%
COOL 130 9/3 2.38 96 13% 127% 0.0%
ATVI 131 9/3 11.33 13,030 11% 703% 1.4%
PRGS 132 9/3 19.30 1,336 12% 199% 0.0%
GEDU 133 9/4 5.00 130 30% 52% 0.0%
GSIT 134 9/4 4.78 145 26% 54% 0.0%
VCI 135 9/3 23.03 1,155 14% 103% 0.0%
GCI 136 9/3 10.44 2,547 22% 56% 1.4%
LLTC 137 9/3 27.46 6,415 12% 161% 3.4%
LLY 138 9/3 36.44 40,593 16% 70% 5.3%
DISH 139 9/3 24.30 10,869 15% 78% 0.0%
LO 140 9/3 110.07 15,626 11% 722% 4.5%
PTNR 141 9/3 10.51 1,640 16% 71% 18.1%
ALTR 142 9/3 34.75 11,464 11% 340% 0.7%
TRW 143 9/3 39.57 5,318 20% 57% 0.0%
MFW 144 9/4 20.79 405 13% 133% 0.0%
NTCT 145 9/3 12.49 541 11% 351% 0.0%
GILD 146 9/3 38.82 31,087 12% 165% 0.0%
KONG 147 9/4 4.15 156 37% 46% 0.0%
GMAN 148 9/4 13.65 265 15% 75% 0.0%
ASMI 149 9/4 24.55 1,596 29% 49% 2.2%
LEA 150 9/3 44.11 4,738 19% 59% 0.8%
CACI 151 9/3 49.92 1,592 14% 100% 0.0%
BSQR 152 9/4 4.71 54 11% 471% 0.0%
HRS 153 9/3 38.23 4,767 16% 69% 3.3%
TNH 154 9/4 182.00 3,367 11% 432% 6.2%
VG 155 9/3 3.15 770 12% 152% 0.0%
NATH 156 9/4 18.80 98 12% 137% 0.0%
BTM 157 9/3 21.69 4,264 29% 47% 7.4%
NTRI 158 9/3 11.76 321 14% 88% 5.5%
MHP 159 9/3 40.62 12,560 11% 276% 2.4%
ERIC 160 9/3 10.96 35,412 15% 75% 3.1%
LMT 161 9/3 71.37 24,737 14% 88% 4.1%
SBGI 162 9/3 6.90 560 15% 77% 4.9%
NANO 163 9/3 14.49 340 22% 52% 0.0%
CGA 164 9/4 3.95 106 82% 44% 0.0%
SYNA 165 9/3 23.44 821 13% 104% 0.0%
MGIC 166 9/3 4.21 156 11% 588% 0.0%
BID 167 9/3 34.85 2,422 15% 72% 0.5%
WWE 168 9/3 9.04 676 15% 74% 12.9%
FCX 169 9/3 44.94 42,963 23% 48% 1.9%
AEIS 170 9/3 9.24 408 33% 45% 0.0%
PRIM 171 9/3 10.26 525 15% 66% 0.9%
BBY 172 9/3 24.10 9,573 23% 48% 2.4%
RBCN 173 9/3 11.99 287 33% 45% 0.0%
TXN 174 9/3 25.08 29,594 16% 64% 2.0%
BLC 175 9/3 5.15 536 14% 78% 0.9%
AFCE 176 9/3 12.26 304 11% 198% 0.0%
CXDC 177 9/3 5.20 247 26% 46% 0.0%
PKE 178 9/4 22.57 470 18% 56% 1.7%
STO 179 9/3 23.37 74,377 38% 43% 4.6%
TNDM 180 9/3 10.53 362 19% 54% 0.0%
CVVT 181 9/3 2.16 77 117% 41% 0.0%
BKE 182 9/3 38.60 1,826 13% 91% 8.4%
MCRL 183 9/3 9.74 614 15% 69% 1.4%
IOSP 184 9/3 25.05 614 16% 59% 0.0%
INSP 185 9/3 9.11 347 11% 153% 0.0%
RTEC 186 9/3 6.39 205 37% 42% 0.0%
LNCR 187 9/3 20.36 1,934 14% 72% 3.8%
ALV 188 9/3 53.38 5,018 18% 54% 3.0%
STEC 189 9/3 9.05 477 22% 46% 0.0%
LLL 190 9/3 64.69 6,935 16% 58% 2.6%
ITRN 191 9/4 13.00 273 14% 66% 7.5%
FICO 192 9/3 23.85 960 10% 469% 0.3%
TW 193 9/3 56.99 4,211 11% 163% 0.5%
CEPH 194 9/3 80.61 7,118 12% 91% 0.0%
LUK 195 9/3 27.42 6,828 12% 118% 0.9%
GRMN 196 9/3 32.00 6,236 12% 111% 2.5%
UFPT 197 9/4 16.11 112 17% 54% 0.0%
CHE 198 9/3 55.34 1,197 11% 145% 1.0%
LSCC 199 9/3 5.15 626 15% 63% 0.0%
TRLG 200 9/3 28.69 718 14% 69% 0.0%

Here are where the current top 50 fall in my list:

Ticker Mkt Cap Date My Ranking
ACAD 71.81 1-Sep 44
AFAM 180.99 1-Sep 23
AMED 490.79 1-Sep 49
APOL 6,346.42 1-Sep 20
AMAT 14,571.89 1-Sep 45
AGX 137.52 1-Sep 8
HRB 4,641.53 1-Sep 39
CPLA 473.56 1-Sep 19
CECO 1,223.31 1-Sep 40
CHKE 111.85 1-Sep 37
CMTL 722.03 1-Sep 62
CRAY 199.89 1-Sep 16
DELL 26,959.80 1-Sep 26
DLX 1,074.10 1-Sep 65
DLB 3,651.89 1-Sep 55
FRX 9,292.81 1-Sep 29
GTAT 1,484.27 1-Sep #N/A
GTIV 224.65 1-Sep 63
GNI 158.67 1-Sep 66
ESI 1,899.99 1-Sep 15
KLAC 6,027.95 1-Sep 46
KFY 745.94 1-Sep 51
KLIC 603.43 1-Sep 32
LMLP 81.88 1-Sep 3
LTXC 281.31 1-Sep 28
LRCX 4,520.52 1-Sep 56
LPS 1,467.66 1-Sep 38
MANT 1,312.02 1-Sep 54
MDP 1,130.63 1-Sep 71
MSFT 219,534.96 1-Sep 59
MNTA 857.47 1-Sep 17
MPAA 123.66 1-Sep 122
NVMI 168.74 1-Sep 14
PDLI 820.60 1-Sep 7
PRX 1,075.21 1-Sep 22
PETS 211.31 1-Sep 61
PWER 746.68 1-Sep 43
PRSC 135.39 1-Sep 60
SNDK 8,676.73 1-Sep 21
STRA 1,093.18 1-Sep 48
SUPG 128.71 1-Sep 2
TNAV 373.90 1-Sep 6
TER 2,207.84 1-Sep 53
TSRA 700.53 1-Sep 9
USMO 333.28 1-Sep 35
USNA 373.86 1-Sep 50
UIS 746.06 1-Sep 27
EGY 342.24 1-Sep 41
VECO 1,422.97 1-Sep 11
VPHM 1,467.77 1-Sep 33

GTAT continues to not show up as their name change has messed things up. Not sure about MPAA scoring #122 for me.




Posted by at

6 comments:

AndrewsDad said...

WOW!

Would have thought you would have moved your money to the dividend version of MFI since it seems to have done very well.

I hope you keep posting the top 200 list as I use that as my source when I look for new stocks. The one that I am interested in right now is Buckle BKE. Not sure I would have found it without the top 200 list.

12:35 PM
Leo said...

Alas, you, me and everyone else playing with the Magic Formula, is loosing much more than 10%. 10% is JUST what your are loosing nominally, but you have to add inflation over the last 5 years and the missed gain you would have had investing the same money in a fixed income bond.
Thus, actual loss is more than double. And in a 6-year period investing on a formula which returned more than 30% yearly in 17 years, a question arises: is everything OK with Greenblatt's backtesting?

12:13 PM
jb said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
2:51 PM
jb said...

Bummer! I thoroughly enjoyed following your journey. You spent way more time on the analysis of your holdings and portfolio of MFI stocks than I could even hope. I just follow the system randomly, and have done 'okay' relative to the market.

It's unfortunate that it didn't work out better for you. I wish you all the best wherever your investing path leads and hope to see the occasional future post on your blog.

regards,
j

2:53 PM
eesirrius said...

Too bad, I just started with the magic formula and have'nt had too much success either, but I got in right before the market pullback so this is to be expected. I would be interested in seeing your spreadsheet as I am posting my result and the change on the magic formula listing weekly on the following site www.magicformula.com.

Please have a look and let me know if you think it would be good to integrate your site in to mine or whatever way you think would be best.

You can contact me directly from the website.

I just started the translation so you might see some of the content in french.

I enjoyed reading you and look forward to a response

Steeve

11:18 AM
eesirrius said...

Sorry, It's www.eemagicformula.com

Steeve

11:29 AM

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