Traveling ManI apologize for the dearth of postings of late. It has been a very, very hectic period. The Company I work for is going through a merger and at the same time, my family is moving from Bermuda to Connecticut. The house was packed up yesterday and so today we're in a hotel.
My portfolio was certainly in a death spiral of late. I went below 0% since I started 5+ years ago a few weeks ago (-2.4%). I have bounced back with the broader market and am now +3.8%. Still a long way to go.
The Table
Here is a table that compares where I am year by year and inception to date with the Russell 3000 and my "proprietary" MFI index:
| MFI Performance | ||
| ITD | Annual | |
| 2006 | 10.74% | 10.74% |
| 2007 | -6.57% | -15.63% |
| 2008 | -41.60% | -37.50% |
| 2009 | 0.71% | 72.47% |
| 2010 | 10.90% | 10.12% |
| 2011 | 3.82% | -6.38% |
| IWV Performance | ||
| ITD | Annual | |
| 2006 | 11.23% | 11.23% |
| 2007 | 4.65% | -5.91% |
| 2008 | -30.54% | -33.63% |
| 2009 | -13.95% | 23.87% |
| 2010 | 1.65% | 18.14% |
| 2011 | 9.29% | 7.51% |
| MFI Index Performance | ||
| ITD | Annual | |
| 2006 | 8.30% | 8.30% |
| 2007 | -6.88% | -14.02% |
| 2008 | -35.98% | -31.26% |
| 2009 | -11.07% | 38.92% |
| 2010 | 9.19% | 22.77% |
| 2011 | 20.01% | 9.92% |
As you can see, I am struggling. I think ikt is fair to state that many of my problems have been caused by (a pox on them) Chinese stocks. Here is a table showing my open stocks and how they have done individually against the Russell 3000. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the losers, and I have weeded a few of them:
| Symbol | Initial | Current | Pct Gain | IWV Initial | IWV Change |
| AAPL | $327.48 | $359.71 | 9.8% | $76.42 | 5.4% |
| AGX | $8.45 | $10.39 | 23.0% | $77.82 | 3.5% |
| ARO | $24.53 | $18.34 | -25.2% | $76.90 | 4.8% |
| AZN | $47.27 | $50.38 | 10.5% | $75.92 | 6.1% |
| BSQR | $6.44 | $6.40 | -0.6% | $79.99 | 0.7% |
| CHKE | $18.42 | $17.02 | -6.5% | $77.72 | 3.7% |
| CMTL | $26.63 | $29.55 | 13.1% | $70.38 | 14.5% |
| CSCO | $16.97 | $15.74 | -6.9% | $79.97 | 0.8% |
| DELL | $14.75 | $17.14 | 16.2% | $80.04 | 0.7% |
| IDCC | $47.49 | $45.58 | -3.6% | $77.54 | 3.9% |
| INTC | $19.02 | $23.09 | 24.1% | $67.43 | 19.5% |
| JGBO | $6.82 | $3.08 | -54.9% | $71.80 | 12.2% |
| KLIC | $11.00 | $11.34 | 3.1% | $77.18 | 4.4% |
| MNDO | $2.72 | $2.85 | 16.5% | $77.86 | 3.5% |
| MRX | $28.14 | $40.01 | 42.8% | $79.13 | 1.8% |
| MSFT | $27.26 | $26.92 | -0.7% | $73.88 | 9.1% |
| NEP | $5.06 | $3.33 | -34.2% | $76.48 | 5.4% |
| NEWN | $6.31 | $2.04 | -67.7% | $71.54 | 12.6% |
| NVMI | $10.52 | $10.55 | 0.3% | $80.13 | 0.6% |
| PWER | $8.53 | $7.91 | -7.3% | $77.60 | 3.8% |
| SNDK | $38.28 | $43.04 | 12.4% | $69.89 | 15.3% |
| SOLR | $10.65 | $16.51 | 55.0% | $76.44 | 5.4% |
| SUPG | $2.85 | $3.16 | 10.9% | $76.70 | 5.1% |
| UNTD | $6.15 | $6.41 | 4.2% | $77.70 | 3.7% |
| Grand Total | -4.4% | 6.5% |
Then here is a table showing my open non Chinese stocks. While my overall stocks are trailing the indices, my non-Chinese stocks are faring pretty well. So that at least gives me hope that there is a light at the tunnel end:
| Symbol | Initial Price | Current Price | Avg of Gain | Avg of IWV Gain |
| AAPL | $327.48 | $359.71 | 9.8% | 5.4% |
| AGX | $8.45 | $10.39 | 23.0% | 3.5% |
| ARO | $24.53 | $18.34 | -25.2% | 4.8% |
| AZN | $47.27 | $50.38 | 10.5% | 6.1% |
| BSQR | $6.44 | $6.40 | -0.6% | 0.7% |
| CHKE | $18.42 | $17.02 | -6.5% | 3.7% |
| CMTL | $26.61 | $29.55 | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| CSCO | $16.97 | $15.74 | -6.9% | 0.8% |
| DELL | $14.75 | $17.14 | 16.2% | 0.7% |
| IDCC | $47.49 | $45.58 | -3.6% | 3.9% |
| INTC | $19.12 | $23.09 | 23.5% | 18.3% |
| KLIC | $11.00 | $11.34 | 3.1% | 4.4% |
| MNDO | $2.72 | $2.85 | 16.5% | 3.5% |
| MRX | $28.14 | $40.01 | 42.8% | 1.8% |
| MSFT | $27.56 | $26.92 | -1.7% | 8.3% |
| NVMI | $10.52 | $10.55 | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| PWER | $8.53 | $7.91 | -7.3% | 3.8% |
| SNDK | $38.19 | $43.04 | 12.7% | 15.2% |
| SOLR | $10.65 | $16.51 | 55.0% | 5.4% |
| SUPG | $2.85 | $3.16 | 10.9% | 5.1% |
| UNTD | $6.15 | $6.41 | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| Grand Total | $32.83 | $35.68 | 8.0% | 5.7% |
Graphs
What would an update be without a few graphs? Here is my "overall" graph, that shows how my portfolio has fared since February 2006, it isn't very pretty.
Then here is a graph since the start of 2010.
As you can see, since early November, I have been going downhill.
Is MFI Working???
While MFI isn't working for me, in part because I knowingly took additional risks, which turned out to be foolish, I think we can say that it is working. If you look at the first table I published, the MFI index is beating the Russell 3000 by about 11 points, which is perhaps 2% per year. It isn't a stomp, and not "as advertised in the book" but beating an index by two points is actually pretty good.
If we look at it another way (through my tracking portfolios), MFI is also "winning". Recall my measure is $100,000 invested equally over the first 12 months of 2006. If you had done that, you'd be at $127,000 versus $118,500 for the Russell 3000. This is very consistent with the metrics shown above.
But then a final point to consider is that the Chinese stocks have probably drug down the MFI tracking results more than the Russell 3000. Here is a listing of Chinese stocks in the data and how they have performed:
| Average of Percent Change | ||
| Stock | Date | Total |
| AOB | 2/27/2009 | 12% |
| CAST | 1/25/2008 | -55% |
| 2/26/2008 | -51% | |
| 3/24/2008 | -39% | |
| 7/2/2008 | 77% | |
| 7/29/2008 | 61% | |
| 8/29/2008 | 57% | |
| CBEH | 7/29/2009 | 40% |
| CBPO | 12/31/2009 | 35% |
| 1/22/2010 | 47% | |
| 2/26/2010 | 82% | |
| 3/25/2010 | 34% | |
| 4/23/2010 | 36% | |
| 5/28/2010 | 25% | |
| 6/29/2010 | -3% | |
| 7/29/2010 | -14% | |
| CEU | 8/28/2009 | -19% |
| 9/25/2009 | -32% | |
| 10/30/2009 | -4% | |
| 11/27/2009 | -27% | |
| 12/31/2009 | -59% | |
| 1/22/2010 | -63% | |
| 2/26/2010 | -64% | |
| 3/25/2010 | -71% | |
| 4/23/2010 | -74% | |
| 5/28/2010 | -76% | |
| 6/29/2010 | -77% | |
| 7/29/2010 | -77% | |
| CHCG.OB | 5/29/2007 | -72% |
| 8/30/2007 | -67% | |
| 9/27/2007 | -66% | |
| 11/2/2007 | -78% | |
| 11/28/2007 | -70% | |
| 12/28/2007 | -78% | |
| 1/25/2008 | -75% | |
| 2/26/2008 | -80% | |
| 7/29/2008 | -58% | |
| CHOP | 5/28/2010 | -27% |
| 6/29/2010 | -31% | |
| 7/29/2010 | -28% | |
| CMFO | 8/28/2009 | 12% |
| CSKI | 7/2/2008 | 20% |
| 7/29/2008 | 21% | |
| 8/29/2008 | 4% | |
| 9/26/2008 | 7% | |
| 10/31/2008 | 32% | |
| 11/26/2008 | 55% | |
| 1/23/2009 | 56% | |
| 2/27/2009 | 41% | |
| 3/27/2009 | 16% | |
| 5/29/2009 | -14% | |
| 6/29/2009 | -18% | |
| 7/29/2009 | -27% | |
| 8/28/2009 | -29% | |
| 9/25/2009 | -50% | |
| 10/30/2009 | -23% | |
| 11/27/2009 | -53% | |
| 1/22/2010 | -70% | |
| 2/26/2010 | -70% | |
| 3/25/2010 | -75% | |
| 4/23/2010 | -79% | |
| 5/28/2010 | -78% | |
| 6/29/2010 | -80% | |
| 7/29/2010 | -71% | |
| JGBO | 6/29/2010 | -67% |
| 7/29/2010 | -65% | |
| 9/2/2010 | -68% | |
| LIWA | 7/29/2010 | -18% |
| NEP | 10/29/2010 | -50% |
| 11/26/2010 | -49% | |
| 1/3/2011 | -43% | |
| 1/28/2011 | -37% | |
| 2/25/2011 | -35% | |
| 3/24/2011 | -29% | |
| QKLS | 3/25/2010 | -51% |
| QXM | 4/25/2008 | -58% |
| 5/28/2008 | -42% | |
| 7/29/2008 | -45% | |
| 3/27/2009 | 2% | |
| 4/24/2009 | -1% | |
| 5/29/2009 | -28% | |
| SCEI | 6/29/2010 | -80% |
| 10/29/2010 | -81% | |
| 11/26/2010 | -81% | |
| 1/3/2011 | -80% | |
| 1/28/2011 | -79% | |
| 2/25/2011 | -80% | |
| 4/21/2011 | -67% | |
| SVA | 4/23/2010 | -29% |
| UTA | 5/29/2009 | 6% |
| 6/29/2009 | -43% | |
| 8/28/2009 | -49% | |
| 9/25/2009 | -65% | |
| 10/30/2009 | -52% | |
| 11/27/2009 | -39% | |
| 12/31/2009 | -39% | |
| 1/22/2010 | -28% | |
| 2/26/2010 | -29% | |
| 5/28/2010 | -53% | |
| 6/29/2010 | -38% | |
| 7/29/2010 | -36% | |
| VALV | 12/31/2009 | 14% |
| 1/22/2010 | -28% | |
| 3/25/2010 | -40% | |
| 4/23/2010 | -62% | |
| Grand Total | -32% | |
So you can make an argument that if you stuck to MFI that focused on US and European stocks, you would likely be beating the benchmarks by even more. By my count, I show 105 stock years averaging a 32% drop. If you removed them, it would add over a point (from 7.9% to 9.2%).
Posts
2 comments:
Why don't you include NEWN in your chinese stock list?
My monthly tracking portfolios use the top 50 stocks greater than $100m market cap. NEWN was never greater than $100m when on the list.
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