Saturday, June 25, 2011

The Struggle Continues

I closed the June 29th 2010 Monthly tracking portfolio today. Granted it did have a few days to run, but I doubt that was going to change things much and I wanted the new one to start in June (if I waited it would have been July 1st).

To newbie readers, I have set up a portfolio of 50 stocks > 100m once a month since January 2006. I think "hold" them for a year and track how the aggregate portfolio does versus the Russell 3000. The June 2010 portfolio was skunked, up 16.7% versus 25.7% for the benchmark. Chinese stocks were the major drag. Here are the 50 stocks in descending order:

Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change Mkt Cap
SOLR 5.66 15.30 170% 5,685
TNAV 8.43 16.57 97% 103
TTT 6.22 11.75 89% 248
CBI 19.11 34.85 82% 4,995
ENDP 22.10 38.63 75% 899
SOHU 40.88 68.47 67% 143
SNTA 2.88 4.79 66% 126
ZLCS 1.46 2.42 66% 181
MRX 22.36 36.97 65% 1,475
LO 68.57 110.49 61% 11,522
VPHM 11.11 17.71 59% 141
GXDX 16.37 25.00 53% 240
TNDM 11.24 17.03 52% 348
IDCC 25.29 38.31 51% 331
PPD 45.69 66.48 46% 486
GME 18.32 26.12 43% 310
FRX 27.68 39.33 42% 3,017
CNU 3.37 4.77 42% 136
USMO 11.52 15.35 33% 864
UIS 19.05 24.37 28% 325
PDLI 4.51 5.75 27% 363
DLX 18.53 23.53 27% 820
JCOM 21.90 27.24 24% 1,044
SNTS 2.58 3.19 24% 17,660
NSR 20.87 25.75 23% 653
EME 23.22 28.41 22% 2,786
IMMU 3.23 3.82 18% 1,034
AHCI 2.27 2.47 9% 113
CHKE 15.68 16.89 8% 113
IPXL 18.81 20.21 7% 102
UNTD 5.61 5.81 4% 1,145
DRWI 6.02 6.07 1% 222
ELNK 7.70 7.65 -1% 2,932
CBPO 10.28 10.01 -3% 667
APOL 43.13 41.94 -3% 6,944
OSK 31.96 27.75 -13% 3,078
VALU 15.65 13.58 -13% 105
PRSC 14.26 12.20 -14% 180
KIRK 16.45 12.21 -26% 214
AFAM 35.75 25.72 -28% 241
CHOP 5.27 3.62 -31% 124
UTA 6.35 3.96 -38% 556
UEPS 13.62 8.35 -39% 2,180
ARO 28.81 17.15 -40% 2,650
AMED 44.64 25.28 -43% 726
CYTK 2.55 1.22 -52% 229
JGBO 9.32 3.08 -67% 414
CEU 4.19 0.97 -77% 295
SCEI 6.50 1.32 -80% 10,039
CSKI 11.48 2.25 -80% 234

Here is how every portfolio has performed so far, note that mfi is "winning" by about 2 percentage points:

Average of Percent Change
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7%
7/29/2010 8.3% 18.9%
9/2/2010 23.4% 19.8%
9/24/2010 16.8% 13.6%
10/29/2010 8.5% 9.6%
11/26/2010 8.7% 8.4%
1/3/2011 1.3% 1.0%
1/28/2011 -2.4% 0.8%
2/25/2011 -1.5% -3.0%
3/24/2011 -3.0% -2.4%
4/21/2011 -6.1% -4.8%
5/27/2011 -4.2% -4.6%
6/24/2011 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Total 6.6% 4.6%
Closed 7.3% 4.5%
Open 4.1% 4.8%

As people know, I like a second metric besides "averages". This is because if a portfolio goes up by 20% and then down by 20%, that is different than up by 10% and down by 10%. Here is how you would have done investing $100k evenly over first 12 months:

Category Value
Total 119,376
Total New 111,638
Total Dividend 220,981
Total Russell 3K 112,154

So "Total" means that if you followed the rules, your $100k would be $119k. If you had just bought "new" stocks, meaning new to my tracking portfolios in past 12 months, you would have done worse (this is a change, new stocks had actually been doing better). The big winner has been dividend stocks, meaning stocks with a yield > 2.4%. They have done MUCH better. Finally the benchmark Russell 3000.

For the new June 24th 2011 portfolio, there are surprisingly no "new" stocks. Here are the dividend stocks:

Date Stock Mkt Cap Yield
6/24/2011 UNTD 527 6.9%
6/24/2011 USMO 352 13.0%
6/24/2011 RTN 17,159 3.2%
6/24/2011 PETS 268 4.2%
6/24/2011 PDLI 829 13.9%
6/24/2011 GNI 166 11.4%
6/24/2011 DLX 1,242 4.2%
6/24/2011 CMTL 700 2.8%
6/24/2011 CHKE 144 6.9%

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