Sunday, April 17, 2011

Top 200 April 17th 2011

Top 200 List Returns

Well, I am sure my lucky 13 followers have been missing it, so I have run my top 200 list as of Friday (luckily not the 13th). As a reminder, I attempt to recreate the official MFI listing most every week. My list seems to have a few extra stocks (like ESI and BPI for example), but the majority of the official top 50 mfi stocks are generally well ranked in my system as well. I also calculate the earnings yield and return on capital, to give my faithful readers a little extra color.

Ticker Rank Date Stock Price Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Yahoo Yield
TRMS 1 4/16 2.52 56 213% 800% 0.0%
PDLI 2 4/16 6.25 872 26% 379474% 10.5%
AGX 3 4/16 8.69 119 31% 952% 0.0%
MAIL 4 4/16 7.06 70 28% 818% 23.6%
SUPG 5 4/16 2.60 158 32% 385% 0.0%
POZN 6 4/16 6.05 183 18% 31633% 0.0%
STV 7 4/16 6.97 410 18% 1873% 0.0%
JGBO 8 4/16 3.83 57 729% 271% 0.0%
SOLR 9 4/16 9.69 1,344 20% 617% 0.0%
ESI 10 4/16 68.02 2,110 28% 310% 0.0%
TNAV 11 4/16 11.03 495 21% 484% 0.0%
VNDA 12 4/16 7.67 222 18% 943% 0.0%
BPI 13 4/16 16.82 977 26% 325% 0.0%
CRME 14 4/16 4.37 267 17% 1774% 0.0%
ACAD 15 4/16 1.77 70 17% 1489% 0.0%
IPXL 16 4/16 27.06 1,792 27% 255% 0.0%
RIGL 17 4/16 7.48 390 16% 779% 0.0%
USMO 18 4/16 15.40 344 28% 223% 13.6%
TSRA 19 4/16 17.98 916 23% 248% 0.0%
XNY 20 4/16 4.18 242 39% 195% 0.0%
APOL 21 4/16 40.10 5,708 27% 219% 0.0%
IDCC 22 4/16 46.20 2,097 14% 2827% 0.2%
OSK 23 4/16 33.64 3,076 32% 186% 0.0%
SCEI 24 4/16 3.89 67 224% 149% 0.0%
FRX 25 4/16 33.94 9,775 22% 216% 0.0%
PRSC 26 4/16 13.94 186 19% 241% 0.0%
PPD 27 4/16 65.93 645 18% 251% 0.0%
VECO 28 4/16 47.50 1,994 20% 221% 0.0%
UIS 29 4/16 31.85 1,380 23% 169% 0.0%
SNDK 30 4/16 46.78 11,276 15% 295% 0.0%
MNDO 31 4/16 3.39 63 13% 718% 9.2%
TTHI 32 4/16 3.26 75 23% 153% 0.0%
PWER 33 4/16 7.45 1,056 33% 128% 0.0%
MSFT 34 4/16 25.37 217,421 14% 338% 2.3%
GTXI 35 4/16 3.85 178 13% 766% 0.0%
DJCO 36 4/16 73.00 101 31% 119% 0.0%
UEPS 37 4/16 8.52 388 21% 147% 0.0%
ZA 38 4/16 7.42 205 24% 125% 0.0%
AFAM 39 4/16 36.35 340 17% 169% 0.0%
AMED 40 4/16 34.56 986 19% 148% 0.0%
DELL 41 4/16 14.92 28,915 16% 195% 0.0%
CYOU 42 4/16 34.90 1,856 13% 380% 0.0%
MRX 43 4/16 34.97 2,279 12% 893% 0.8%
LIWA 44 4/16 7.82 235 37% 107% 0.0%
RIMG 45 4/16 14.99 144 43% 105% 0.7%
VPHM 46 4/16 21.81 1,983 13% 311% 0.0%
CPLA 47 4/16 49.96 826 15% 212% 0.0%
ARIA 48 4/16 8.03 978 12% 1491% 0.0%
ARO 49 4/16 26.03 2,306 19% 129% 0.0%
UNTD 50 4/16 6.27 545 15% 186% 6.4%
AZN 51 4/16 49.34 70,359 19% 128% 5.2%
LPS 52 4/16 29.46 2,660 15% 184% 1.4%
CNET 53 4/16 3.26 68 29% 99% 0.0%
CMTL 54 4/16 28.49 940 23% 106% 1.8%
RTN 55 4/16 48.81 17,864 16% 148% 3.2%
EME 56 4/16 29.73 2,030 14% 170% 0.0%
STRA 57 4/16 120.96 1,591 14% 186% 2.9%
LO 58 4/16 98.93 14,717 12% 710% 4.5%
GNI 59 4/16 103.95 156 12% 594% 12.1%
CSKI 60 4/16 3.05 51 454% 83% 0.0%
CECO 61 4/16 21.76 1,736 23% 100% 0.0%
CHKE 62 4/16 18.41 164 12% 625% 7.2%
PETS 63 4/16 14.89 337 14% 197% 3.2%
HRB 64 4/16 17.66 5,389 13% 257% 3.4%
MPAA 65 4/16 13.60 169 14% 183% 0.0%
UTA 66 4/16 3.96 81 123% 79% 0.0%
NOK 67 4/16 8.66 32,155 15% 140% 6.5%
MFW 68 4/16 24.85 482 14% 156% 0.0%
CNXT 69 4/16 2.38 195 11% 584% 0.0%
WSTG 70 4/16 14.11 64 14% 163% 5.5%
GME 71 4/16 26.40 4,015 17% 108% 0.0%
RIMM 72 4/16 53.40 27,999 18% 105% 0.0%
PRM 73 4/16 4.77 213 12% 276% 6.0%
DLX 74 4/16 27.31 1,401 12% 222% 3.7%
KLIC 75 4/16 8.38 601 31% 77% 0.0%
TER 76 4/16 17.12 3,767 13% 164% 0.0%
MDCO 77 4/16 16.15 867 11% 340% 0.0%
LTXC 78 4/16 8.57 429 15% 108% 0.0%
NSR 79 4/16 26.15 1,973 12% 237% 0.0%
MSN 80 4/16 2.44 66 39% 73% 0.0%
LINC 81 4/16 15.94 356 31% 75% 3.2%
IVAC 82 4/16 11.16 258 22% 83% 0.0%
GAME 83 4/16 7.42 2,103 11% 674% 0.0%
CNU 84 4/16 5.15 322 14% 135% 0.0%
AOL 85 4/16 19.78 2,130 27% 76% 0.0%
CSGS 86 4/16 20.32 659 13% 138% 0.0%
CSCO 87 4/16 17.03 95,147 12% 217% 0.4%
MBND 88 4/16 4.08 64 12% 193% 0.0%
DGW 89 4/16 3.87 95 96% 65% 0.0%
LHCG 90 4/16 29.28 536 15% 97% 0.0%
NEP 91 4/16 4.27 134 64% 65% 0.0%
INTC 92 4/16 19.75 112,536 17% 85% 3.4%
LRCX 93 4/16 51.90 6,476 14% 104% 0.0%
NATH 94 4/16 17.05 91 13% 137% 0.0%
MHP 95 4/16 39.31 12,199 11% 257% 2.5%
LOV 96 4/16 3.22 66 11% 259% 0.0%
ELNK 97 4/16 8.14 906 20% 77% 6.7%
DM 98 4/16 12.00 365 11% 250% 0.0%
DV 99 4/16 51.93 3,680 14% 113% 0.4%
CHOP 100 4/16 5.04 244 36% 67% 0.0%
GMAN 101 4/16 17.75 332 12% 138% 0.0%
TPI 102 4/16 2.35 72 45% 63% 0.0%
GA 103 4/16 8.38 1,958 10% 521% 4.3%
USNA 104 4/16 34.78 573 13% 122% 0.0%
COCO 105 4/16 4.31 364 39% 63% 0.0%
KIRK 106 4/16 14.86 305 20% 74% 0.0%
MDP 107 4/16 34.57 1,587 13% 126% 2.8%
CBEH 108 4/16 2.00 77 340% 62% 0.0%
CBP 109 4/16 1.51 57 49% 62% 0.0%
CEPH 110 4/16 75.77 6,135 14% 93% 0.0%
GD 111 4/16 71.88 27,379 14% 95% 2.4%
MRVL 112 4/16 15.97 10,851 12% 182% 0.0%
NUS 113 4/16 29.92 1,926 12% 158% 1.7%
GILD 114 4/16 41.70 34,364 12% 167% 0.0%
NVMI 115 4/16 10.09 270 10% 289% 0.0%
CATO 116 4/16 24.92 723 18% 75% 3.0%
ZSTN 117 4/16 4.76 55 94% 61% 0.0%
CMM 118 4/16 1.92 50 345% 107% 0.0%
EGY 119 4/16 6.88 393 25% 64% 0.0%
TNH 120 4/16 108.67 2,010 11% 243% 5.8%
CPY 121 4/16 21.59 158 14% 88% 4.6%
LMLP 122 4/16 2.76 78 10% 2353% 0.0%
CTP 123 4/16 13.82 94 11% 183% 0.0%
FLL 124 4/16 3.99 72 14% 84% 0.0%
RLRN 125 4/16 11.87 347 10% 510% 20.1%
DRCO 126 4/16 16.25 165 13% 96% 0.0%
LLY 127 4/16 36.01 39,948 17% 71% 5.5%
MKSI 128 4/16 29.73 1,524 18% 68% 0.0%
SAI 129 4/16 17.00 6,103 14% 85% 0.0%
MSPD 130 4/16 7.74 254 12% 118% 0.0%
GPS 131 4/16 22.47 13,752 16% 71% 1.9%
MED 132 4/16 17.07 244 15% 76% 0.0%
HPQ 133 4/16 40.26 89,619 13% 95% 0.8%
NTRI 134 4/16 14.32 389 14% 79% 4.9%
ASYS 135 4/16 23.18 223 15% 73% 0.0%
HRS 136 4/16 50.05 6,346 14% 81% 1.9%
HITK 137 4/16 27.07 348 18% 64% 0.0%
QKLS 138 4/16 2.36 91 30% 57% 0.0%
GEDU 139 4/16 6.48 164 15% 71% 0.0%
CEL 140 4/16 31.10 3,094 14% 79% 12.1%
RAI 141 4/16 36.52 21,382 10% 248% 5.3%
GLPW 142 4/16 27.85 458 12% 100% 0.0%
GFRE 143 4/16 4.88 169 68% 54% 0.0%
CHRM 144 4/16 10.35 404 15% 72% 0.0%
LMT 145 4/16 78.19 28,125 13% 89% 3.6%
MANT 146 4/16 44.22 1,615 12% 96% 0.0%
V 147 4/16 76.47 54,982 10% 344% 0.7%
ADI 148 4/16 38.16 11,786 11% 140% 2.3%
MD 149 4/16 67.10 3,221 9% 732% 0.0%
DLB 150 4/16 46.23 5,257 10% 240% 0.0%
CNTF 151 4/16 3.97 210 287% 51% 0.0%
VCI 152 4/16 27.45 1,438 12% 96% 0.0%
PTNR 153 4/16 18.45 2,901 13% 76% 11.4%
EDS 154 4/16 6.46 180 70% 50% 0.0%
NOC 155 4/16 61.29 18,197 15% 63% 13.5%
PRX 156 4/16 33.54 1,219 14% 71% 0.0%
LXK 157 4/16 35.59 2,840 21% 56% 0.0%
MO 158 4/16 27.01 56,235 10% 275% 5.5%
TRLG 159 4/16 26.65 668 14% 67% 0.0%
YONG 160 4/16 4.76 231 30% 51% 0.0%
AHCI 161 4/16 2.49 109 17% 59% 0.0%
BLC 162 4/16 7.97 825 12% 85% 0.0%
CA 163 4/16 24.18 12,235 9% 285% 0.7%
CVVT 164 4/16 4.19 146 44% 49% 0.0%
ROST 165 4/16 71.21 8,398 12% 92% 1.0%
KLAC 166 4/16 42.80 7,255 12% 82% 1.5%
MYGN 167 4/16 20.54 1,924 9% 272% 0.0%
CNGL 168 4/16 2.55 103 37% 49% 0.0%
AIXG 169 4/16 41.39 4,211 10% 191% 0.5%
RGR 170 4/16 21.02 401 13% 76% 1.5%
LLL 171 4/16 76.14 8,589 14% 64% 2.2%
SCLN 172 4/16 4.57 228 13% 75% 0.0%
DNB 173 4/16 81.46 4,073 9% 845% 1.7%
GCI 174 4/16 14.80 3,588 18% 56% 1.1%
TNDM 175 4/16 14.99 505 15% 62% 0.0%
DISH 176 4/16 23.20 10,293 14% 67% 0.0%
EDMC 177 4/16 20.01 2,807 13% 74% 0.0%
BKE 178 4/16 44.86 2,114 11% 111% 7.4%
MEDW 179 4/16 11.78 96 9% 544% 0.0%
BSQR 180 4/16 6.16 68 9% 657% 0.0%
KFY 181 4/16 20.76 970 10% 189% 0.0%
LLTC 182 4/16 33.14 7,695 10% 173% 2.8%
LAS 183 4/16 3.80 112 60% 47% 0.0%
WDC 184 4/16 38.74 9,104 19% 53% 0.0%
CRI 185 4/16 30.13 1,744 14% 63% 0.0%
SYNA 186 4/16 25.98 919 11% 109% 0.0%
WU 187 4/16 21.05 13,859 9% 692% 1.2%
AMAT 188 4/16 14.72 19,651 12% 77% 1.9%
CLCT 189 4/16 14.62 114 9% 581% 8.8%
ABAT 190 4/16 2.09 164 72% 45% 0.0%
OIIM 191 4/16 6.89 231 19% 52% 0.0%
LOPE 192 4/16 13.54 628 13% 67% 0.0%
SBGI 193 4/16 11.00 922 12% 81% 1.1%
WWE 194 4/16 11.26 849 12% 79% 12.7%
DRWI 195 4/16 7.97 288 13% 68% 0.0%
STX 196 4/16 17.64 8,573 16% 55% 0.0%
AMGN 197 4/16 55.51 52,512 12% 79% 0.0%
VCLK 198 4/16 15.28 1,250 9% 645% 0.0%
CPIX 199 4/16 5.24 109 13% 67% 0.0%
DGX 200 4/16 58.36 10,026 10% 115% 0.7%



Just for yucks, here are the official top 50 stocks (note there is a one day difference between the lists) and where they rank on my list:

Ticker Mkt Cap Date My Ranking
ARIA 1,000.30 14-Apr 48
ACAD 68.86 14-Apr 15
ARO 2,183.01 14-Apr 49
AFAM 334.08 14-Apr 39
AMED 987.49 14-Apr 40
APOL 5,658.46 14-Apr 21
AGX 118.31 14-Apr 3
CPLA 805.52 14-Apr 47
CRME 266.80 14-Apr 14
CECO 1,780.91 14-Apr 61
CHKE 165.64 14-Apr 62
CMTL 766.87 14-Apr 54
DELL 28,674.10 14-Apr 41
DLX 1,372.78 14-Apr 74
EME 1,979.17 14-Apr 56
CNET 52.72 14-Apr 53
FRX 9,654.86 14-Apr 25
FLL 72.57 14-Apr 124
SOLR 1,201.64 14-Apr 9
GNI 154.40 14-Apr 59
IPXL 1,755.71 14-Apr 16
IDCC 2,075.07 14-Apr 22
LPS 2,600.95 14-Apr 52
LO 14,755.86 14-Apr 58
MRX 2,049.03 14-Apr 43
MSFT 213,604.26 14-Apr 34
MNDO 64.32 14-Apr 31
MPAA 164.35 14-Apr 65
OSK 2,981.78 14-Apr 23
PDLI 864.37 14-Apr 2
PETS 337.30 14-Apr 63
PWER 779.81 14-Apr 33
POZN 174.04 14-Apr 6
PPD 644.72 14-Apr 27
PRSC 178.73 14-Apr 26
RTN 17,333.86 14-Apr 55
RIGL 381.58 14-Apr 17
SNDK 11,039.91 14-Apr 30
SCEI 94.75 14-Apr 24
SUPG 159.35 14-Apr 5
TNAV 479.23 14-Apr 11
TER 3,072.75 14-Apr 76
TSRA 881.33 14-Apr 19
TTHI 76.85 14-Apr 32
USMO 323.94 14-Apr 18
UIS 1,335.94 14-Apr 29
UNTD 541.29 14-Apr 50
VNDA 215.92 14-Apr 12
VECO 1,862.12 14-Apr 28
VPHM 1,635.49 14-Apr 46

Funny, FLL seems to always be the one outlier. They are only #124 on my list, the rest are in top 80. I suspect we're treating minority income differently, as FLL has a good chunk of that. C'est la vie.

Mechanical Update

As my readers know, I also have two mechanical portfolios. They consist of new stocks (in past 52 weeks) to the top 30 and top 50 screens every weekend. You can check on them any time by clicking the links in the left margin. Since I began the mechanical portfolios, they have outperformed other approaches, but not so much of late (story of my life).

Even with my extended blackout, the lists have been remarkably stagnant. New this weekend are Acadia Pharmaceutical to both lists and Ariad Pharmaceutical to the top 50. They have very similar names. I will not be buying either.

Stocks in My Top 50 Not on Official List

I guess the final permutation are stocks in my top 50 not of the official list. Many of these are Chinese stocks or education stocks. As those are the two classes with the most SEC lawsuits open, perhaps there is a reason:

Ticker Rank Date Stock Price Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Yahoo Yield
TRMS 1 4/16 2.52 56 213% 800% 0.0%
MAIL 4 4/16 7.06 70 28% 818% 23.6%
STV 7 4/16 6.97 410 18% 1873% 0.0%
JGBO 8 4/16 3.83 57 729% 271% 0.0%
ESI 10 4/16 68.02 2,110 28% 310% 0.0%
BPI 13 4/16 16.82 977 26% 325% 0.0%
XNY 20 4/16 4.18 242 39% 195% 0.0%
GTXI 35 4/16 3.85 178 13% 766% 0.0%
DJCO 36 4/16 73.00 101 31% 119% 0.0%
UEPS 37 4/16 8.52 388 21% 147% 0.0%
ZA 38 4/16 7.42 205 24% 125% 0.0%
CYOU 42 4/16 34.90 1,856 13% 380% 0.0%
LIWA 44 4/16 7.82 235 37% 107% 0.0%
RIMG 45 4/16 14.99 144 43% 105% 0.7%

3 comments:

valuhunter said...

Thanks for all the hard work putting this together. I've done a fair bit of backtesting now with the MFI and I can reasonably replicate the formula (thanks to your work on the yahoo board). With confidence that the mechanics of the formula, I have decided to dig deeper and had some questions for you:

1) what's the story with the education stocks? is there something to be aware of here?

2) are the Chinese RTOs still showing up? how are they identifiable?

3) it seems like you didn't stick with the quarterly systematic rebalancing/investment scheme described in the book? do you think this impacted/led to your relative underperformance? In the latest update to TLBTBTM (sp?), Joel claims to be trouncing the benchmarks still... thoughts?

4) Lastly, when all is said and done, how do you feel about your ability to 'out pick' the top 30 or 50 suggested?

I have a bunch of additional thoughts for you, but it may be better to take it offline. Thanks again.

Paul said...

Marsh_Gerda,

I also want to thank you for the work you put into this site and to the yahoo boards.

Paul

Marsh_Gerda said...

Valu - Not sure I have any great answers. I do not understand why bpi and esi for instance are not showing up. They have been on the lists in the past and it seems that many other education stocks are making it on the lists.

RTOs still certainly show up. They are easy to identify as when you look at their profile in Yahoo you will see they are based in China. NEP, SCEI and CNET are examples of stocks I have seen on the list of late.

I did a back look once to see if my selling stocks early at times had caused underperformance. At that time, it had not. However, it did not help either. My underperformance is easily traceable to overweighting the RTO sector.

I am not sure how JG can claim to be trouncing the benchmarks. Every month I create a tracking portfolio of 50 stocks greater than 100m and I hold them for a year. They are only marginally beating benchmarks. In our reading of the website claims, he states he is beating the benchmarks if you had picked only very large cap stocks. Of course in his book, he states that it is the advantage of the small investor to invest in the smaller cap stocks, so that seems disingenuous.

I clearly have no innate ability to out pick the top 30 or 50. I am the proverbial man with a lit match in the dynamite factory.