Quick Metrics

Taking The Pulse

Sometimes, I like to discuss how MFI in general is faring. I have a variety of metrics I like to use.

• MFI Index - this is one of the best metrics and the index has been doing very well. Since the start of 2011 the index is up 6.17% vs 5.24% for the Russell 3000. Over the past 12 months, the index is up 29.8%, while the Russell 3K is up 23.5%.
• A second useful metric is my MFI Tracking Portfolios, which I set up every month, the top 50 stocks greater than 100m. The open stocks are up 14.8% versus 16.6% for the open Russell 3000 purchases. So down 1.8 points.
• A third metric is my mechanical portfolios. The open top 50 portfolio is trailing the S&P 500 by 3.3 points, while the open top 30 portfolio is essentially flat.
• A fourth metric is my personal portfolio, which I mentioned the other day has been struggling in 2011. My open stocks are up 8.4% versus 11.9% if I had put the money in Russell 3000 at the same intervals. So I am trailing by 3.5 points.

My Current Portfolio

I have been a bit negligent in keeping my Google Docs portfolio updated, so here is a table showing my current portfolio.

Symbol	Initial	Current	Pct Gain	IWV Initial	IWV Change
ARO	$24.53	$26.26	7.1%	$76.90	2.6%
AZN	$47.27	$48.09	5.6%	$75.92	3.9%
CCME	$10.50	$14.46	37.7%	$70.06	12.6%
CEL	$26.22	$30.75	24.7%	$63.45	24.3%
CHKE	$18.18	$17.00	-0.1%	$63.68	23.9%
CMFO	$5.08	$3.70	-27.2%	$65.01	21.3%
CMTL	$26.63	$27.10	3.0%	$70.38	12.1%
EESC	$2.20	$1.60	-27.3%	$67.97	16.0%
IDCC	$47.49	$48.37	1.9%	$77.54	1.7%
INTC	$19.02	$21.86	15.7%	$67.43	17.0%
JGBO	$6.82	$6.30	-7.7%	$71.80	9.9%
KSW	$3.66	$3.74	6.2%	$66.99	17.8%
MNDO	$2.72	$3.22	30.1%	$77.86	1.3%
MRX	$28.14	$25.82	-8.2%	$79.13	-0.3%
MSFT	$27.26	$26.55	-2.0%	$73.88	6.8%
NEP	$7.10	$5.11	-28.0%	$71.78	9.9%
NEWN	$6.31	$5.75	-8.8%	$71.54	10.3%
NVMI	$5.94	$9.82	65.4%	$70.01	12.7%
PM	$44.30	$62.25	44.6%	$64.43	22.4%
RAI	$32.14	$33.98	5.7%	$76.11	3.6%
SCEI	$8.75	$6.79	-22.4%	$72.41	8.9%
SNDK	$38.28	$50.18	31.1%	$69.89	12.9%
SUPG	$2.85	$3.00	5.3%	$76.70	2.8%
UNTD	$5.90	$6.15	9.3%	$63.53	24.2%
Grand Total			8.4%		11.9%

Note that the gains include dividends. My next stock to come up in KSW, in early March. I am thinking about buying either GA or CATO when the time comes.

MRX Reports Earnings

After less than great earnings from UNTD and IDCC, I was more than a little worried about MRX earnings, which were announced after the bell on Friday (which is weird as few companies post earnings on Fridat night). I felt they were pretty good (Medicis Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2010 Results), though I am worried about MagicDiligence maintaining that one of their big $ makers is going to be generic in 2011.

While the generic point should be considered, I have often noted that companies can go much longer than investors often think (USMO, ELNK and many others). I suspect much of the generic issue is in the price. Anyway, MRX was up about 6% after hours (truly during a Friday Happy Hour). Here are some key points regarding their earnings:

1. 60 cents a share for the quarter (recall the stock price is about $26).
2. 725m in cash (with a 1.6b market cap, so almost 1/2 in cash!).
3. Projected earnings per share in 2011 between $2.40 and $2.60.

We'll see. If they have a decent run, I may sell early as I am a little skittish.