MFI Diary: June 29th 2009 Tracking Portfolio

Another tracking portfolio came of age last week... I was traveling so am a bit behind in updating it. It broke a 14 stock month winning streak as it was the 1st portfolio not to beat the Russell 3000 since March 24th 2008. But it is looking like it may be a while before another one wins as 11 of the 12 open portfolios are losing. It is remarkable how streaky MFI has been for us. Here is a listing of the 50 stocks and how they performed:

Date	6/29/2009
under 10	(All)

	Data
Stock	Start Price	Final Price	Pct Change
TRA	20.30	45.76	125.4%
deck	70.20	144.72	106.2%
QCOR	4.96	9.47	90.9%
IPHS	15.60	28.54	82.9%
PROJ	4.37	7.98	82.6%
DLX	12.66	21.47	69.6%
NTRI	13.68	22.25	62.6%
EXBD	20.46	32.39	58.3%
mstr	50.23	77.06	53.4%
amed	33.44	49.72	48.7%
HLF	30.64	45.15	47.4%
IILG	9.26	13.52	46.0%
VIA-B	23.40	33.61	43.6%
ASGN	3.98	5.53	38.9%
ttt	8.45	11.59	37.1%
EGY	4.06	5.34	31.5%
KFY	10.64	13.98	31.4%
DISH	16.10	20.85	29.5%
DIVX	5.65	7.22	27.8%
VM	4.08	5.18	27.0%
tpc	17.59	22.30	26.8%
EME	19.77	24.97	26.3%
TWX	24.83	30.99	24.8%
GHM	13.46	16.69	24.0%
DRC	25.96	31.83	22.6%
CTCM	12.30	14.63	18.9%
ELNK	7.23	8.59	18.8%
KBR	18.56	21.98	18.4%
NOV	32.36	38.13	17.8%
BR	16.27	19.12	17.5%
USMO	12.15	14.08	15.9%
ENDP	18.38	20.94	13.9%
GNI	83.15	94.41	13.5%
FIX	10.12	11.02	8.9%
LO	65.80	71.49	8.6%
PPD	43.64	46.32	6.1%
PFE	14.67	15.23	3.8%
FRX	25.15	25.88	2.9%
GME	22.17	22.79	2.8%
FWLT	23.88	24.01	0.5%
GTLS	18.80	18.42	-2.0%
SOLR	5.75	5.46	-5.0%
CSKI	13.85	12.66	-8.6%
UTA	10.88	8.36	-23.2%
SRDX	22.91	17.01	-25.8%
SCMP	6.13	3.83	-37.5%
CRAY	7.65	4.76	-37.8%
JTX	6.01	1.90	-68.4%
Grand Total	961.58	1,249.13	25.5%

Of course I bought JTX....

Then here is a listing of how every portfolio has fared:

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV	Win/Lose
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%	1
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%	1
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%	1
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%	0
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%	1
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%	1
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%	1
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%	1
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%	0
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%	0
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%	0
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%	0
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%	0
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%	0
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%	0
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%	0
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%	0
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%	0
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%	0
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%	0
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%	0
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%	0
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%	0
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%	0
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%	1
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%	0
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-41.5%	0
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-36.8%	0
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-31.0%	1
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%	1
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%	1
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-20.9%	1
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%	1
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%	1
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%	1
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%	1
12/26/2008	48.9%	32.3%	1
1/23/2009	59.3%	36.4%	1
2/27/2009	92.8%	55.6%	1
3/27/2009	85.8%	48.1%	1
4/24/2009	69.7%	45.8%	1
5/29/2009	31.8%	22.8%	1
6/29/2009	21.3%	24.0%	0
7/29/2009	12.4%	12.8%	0
8/28/2009	3.2%	6.7%	0
9/25/2009	1.6%	4.5%	0
10/30/2009	4.1%	6.1%	0
11/27/2009	0.9%	0.8%	1
12/31/2009	-3.3%	-2.4%	0
1/22/2010	-4.0%	-0.5%	0
2/26/2010	-5.0%	-1.9%	0
3/25/2010	-12.6%	-7.5%	0
4/23/2010	-16.6%	-12.0%	0
5/28/2010	-6.5%	-2.1%	0
6/29/2010	-0.2%	2.9%	0
Grand Total	2.9%	0.8%	6/29/09

So the final column is a "1" if MFI is ahead. Note of the 55 portfolios, MFI has only won 23. That is a big point of my frustration. You will note that the overall average for MFI is +2.9% per portfolio versus 0.8% for Russell 3000. But the higher volatility of MFI makes it so if you had invested $100,000 evenly over the first 12 months you'd have the following amounts in your bank account:

7/29/2009	8,036	7,716
8/28/2009	7,335	7,546
9/25/2009	7,391	7,355
10/30/2009	6,771	7,412
11/27/2009	7,571	6,938
12/31/2009	8,258	7,412
1/22/2010	8,829	7,760
2/26/2010	8,012	8,075
3/25/2010	7,948	7,638
4/23/2010	9,417	8,313
5/28/2010	9,131	7,689
6/29/2010	7,631	8,047

Total	96,330	91,902

The first column is MFI (so you would have a bit over $96k) and the second is Russell 3000 at 92K.

I continue to track two alternative approaches. One is my "new" stock approach, which adds the MFI stock if it is new to the screen in the past 52 weeks and the other is a "dogs of MFI" approach, that only picks stocks with a yield > 2.6%. The Yield approach has been the big winner.

"New Stocks"

6/29/2009	10,126	7,824
7/29/2009	8,201	7,716
8/28/2009	7,433	7,546
9/25/2009	10,047	7,355
10/30/2009	6,129	7,412
11/27/2009	7,043	6,938
12/31/2009	9,060	7,412
1/22/2010	7,303	7,760
2/26/2010	9,603	8,075
3/25/2010	6,977	7,638
4/23/2010	11,928	8,313
5/28/2010	7,963	7,689
6/29/2010	10,209	8,047

Total	101,897	91,902

High Yield Approach:

6/29/2009	14,630	7,824
7/29/2009	14,264	7,716
8/28/2009	11,341	7,546
9/25/2009	10,113	7,355
10/30/2009	10,576	7,412
11/27/2009	13,082	6,938
12/31/2009	11,477	7,412
1/22/2010	18,279	7,760
2/26/2010	18,098	8,075
3/25/2010	15,675	7,638
4/23/2010	18,815	8,313
5/28/2010	18,108	7,689
6/29/2010	14,692	8,047

Total	174,521	91,902

The current (6/29/10) new stocks are:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
TNAV	8.43	8.47	0.5%
SOHU	40.88	41.28	1.0%
SCEI	6.5	6.4	-1.5%
KIRK	16.45	16.91	2.8%
JGBO	9.32	9.32	0.0%
GXDX	16.37	17	3.8%
DRWI	6.02	5.98	-0.7%
CRXX	1.46	1.47	0.7%

The current (6/29/10) High Yield stocks are:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
VALU	18.42	18.52	0.5%
UNTD	5.97	5.93	-0.7%
USMO	13.1	13.25	1.1%
PDLI	5.77	5.74	-0.5%
LO	72.54	72.83	0.4%
ELNK	8.09	8.09	0.0%
DLX	19.36	19.32	-0.2%
CHKE	16.68	17.13	2.7%

Finally here are the "new" stocks from the portfolio that just finished:

VM	4.08	5.18	27.0%
IILG	9.26	12.7	37.1%
GME	22.17	18.59	-16.1%
DRC	25.96	31.77	22.4%
DISH	16.1	18.54	15.2%

And here were the High Yield stocks from a year ago:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
USMO	11.95	13.28	11.1%
PFE	14.67	14.47	-1.4%
NTRI	13.68	23.47	71.6%
LO	64.9	72.85	12.2%
IPHS	15.6	26.36	69.0%
HLF	30.64	47.28	54.3%
GNI	83.15	95.25	14.6%
ELNK	7.23	8.11	12.2%
DLX	12.52	19.41	55.0%
BR	16.27	19.32	18.7%